TSN Fantasy Football

Foxhound · July 22, 2019, 07:00:44 PM

Quote from: theaardvark on July 22, 2019, 04:16:26 PMwell... after a couple horrible weeks, it has lost its shine for me... the problem with these leagues I find is that if you aren't near the top, what's the use? After week 5 or 6, it gets kinda blah if you are middle of the pack or worse....

In 2017 I limped out of the gate with forty points in my first week. Yet I ended up finishing on top of several leagues including TSN 1040 Vancouver, TSN 1050 Toronto and Blue Bombers. And even if you think the season is beyond salvaging, you can always modify your objective to finishing on top that particular week.

66 Chevelle · July 22, 2019, 07:19:06 PM

Quote from: Foxhound on July 22, 2019, 07:00:44 PM
In 2017 I limped out of the gate with forty points in my first week. Yet I ended up finishing on top of several leagues including TSN 1040 Vancouver, TSN 1050 Toronto and Blue Bombers. And even if you think the season is beyond salvaging, you can always modify your objective to finishing on top that particular week.

no doubt... I think we have some pretty sharp football minds hanging around here... I actually finished something like in the top 250 last week, even with a couple of below average finishers... I thought that was actually pretty decent...

but I'll say this, I'd like to me the fella that assigns the values to players each week because for the life of me I can't figure out how he comes up with a lot of them... just sayin'

Foxhound · July 22, 2019, 07:25:52 PM

Quote from: 66 Chevelle on July 22, 2019, 07:19:06 PMbut I'll say this, I'd like to me the fella that assigns the values to players each week because for the life of me I can't figure out how he comes up with a lot of them... just sayin'.

I believe the program begins the year with base pricing from the end of the 2018 season. Prices are then modified as some function of both the player's game-by-game performance and popularity as a Fantasy pick.

Mispricing on the computer's part though is what creates opportunity for those of us who are shrewd.

Ricky Bobby · July 22, 2019, 08:41:16 PM

It's just for weekly bragging rights if your not at the top for the season.

TecnoGenius · July 23, 2019, 08:28:50 AM

Quote from: theaardvark on July 22, 2019, 04:16:26 PM
well... after a couple horrible weeks, it has lost its shine for me... the problem with these leagues I find is that if you aren't near the top, what's the use? After week 5 or 6, it gets kinda blah if you are middle of the pack or worse...

I spent the last 2 years near the bottom. I think I was like 4000 or 5000th in both fantasy and cfl pickems.

I've been honing my strategy a bit this year, and it's paid off, but to be honest, it's mostly luck. If you pick those 40 pt WRs on their hot weeks, you really get ahead fast.

Quote from: theaardvark on July 22, 2019, 06:54:19 PM
It can be a lot of work, and I'm not used to that for no return... OK, its not REALLY a lot of work, but enough to require a benefit to do it...

Now that is very true. I probably spend one hour doing cfl pickems, guessing the scores, the picking fantasy roster. Then adjusting the pickems scores if fantasy gives me new ideas (injuries, guys I forgot, etc). Wednesday night is pretty much shot for me doing all that...

You know what I never took into account, but will now? Weather. That 45C game in MTL probably cost EDM the win as they clearly weren't prepared. And knowing if it will rain is helpful for reducing your score expectations. Darn, looking up every forecast will take another 30 minutes each week...

Foxhound · July 23, 2019, 01:39:12 PM

Me I try to avoid over-analyzing. Paralysis by analysis is an ongoing danger. That's why I think these experts on the TSN and CFL broadcasts and websites don't necessarily do well. I mean "boundary side targets"? Oh come on!

I don't spend that much time actively agonizing/dwelling on my picks. I take into consideration a player's past and more recent performance, the team's opponent for the week and his price. And of course I keep an eye out for injury reports.

blue newt · July 24, 2019, 01:52:32 AM

I go off intuition quite a bit. Sometimes it bites me hard, other times I find unexpected picks that bring me more points than they should have. Sometimes I just have fun with it (like my "pick everyone named Harris" week--which turned out to be my best week with 4 x players coming in with more than 23 points (for the record, there's only 3 Harris' that you can choose because the fourth plays defense)). If there's multiple players I want to pick all in the same price range, I look at the average point accrual for each over the last couple weeks to see who's the most consistent for the price. But I don't spent too much time analyzing everything.

Only rules I have are:
-don't put all my eggs in one basket (ie, spread the love amongst the teams, even the bad teams)
-don't second guess myself (I'm always wrong then)

66 Chevelle · July 24, 2019, 04:23:20 AM

I tend to look at game match up and try to avoid stupid mistakes like pick the defense that is playing against a team with the play makers I choose... you generally can't be a winner both ways...

I also try to avoid the top dollar players as they generally tend to disappoint in regards to the return on investment and leave you with fewer dollars to pick other players...

also, I put little faith in last week's big performer... it's been my experience that you tend to be throwing good money after bad by doing so...

also, I want to try and pick as many players as possible that I feel won't be on other people's team... it's hard to beat your opponent if you have the same team, lol...

and lastly, I try not to ride any horse too long... you can't expect last week's big point guy to do the same every week... and you can win by dropping the right player at the right time just like you can by anticipating and picking the right player at the right time...

but it always feels incredible when you win or you are the only one to have picked this week's hidden superstar...

66 Chevelle · July 24, 2019, 04:26:39 AM

I do wish that there was a weekly recap player that should how all of the players, the actual football players, scored for the week and or season by position and as a whole...

TecnoGenius · July 24, 2019, 06:27:17 AM

Quote from: 66 Chevelle on July 24, 2019, 04:26:39 AM
I do wish that there was a weekly recap player that should how all of the players, the actual football players, scored for the week and or season by position and as a whole...

Yes, that is sorely lacking. There should be a "week X results" page that just lists all players sorted by points, showing the cost, and points per $.

Without insider access to their db, I think the only way to get all that is to laboriously manually track it all. Or write a screen-scraper. If you had that data you could probably make way better informed picks.

That's taking it to the next level I'm not sure I want to waste that much time on :-)

I wonder if I made a web site that offered such data if people would be willing to pay a few bucks a year for access??

TecnoGenius · July 26, 2019, 01:54:47 PM

What a horrible week so far. I pick Carey and Brescacin, and both start promisingly, then both are badly hurt and out around halftime. Yikes. Glad I picked the cheap EDM D over the expensive CGY D, though!

66 Chevelle · July 26, 2019, 01:58:27 PM

talk about bad... I had Brescacin as well, but then proceeded to spend over $9K on a player that didn't even play...

I'm not sure when he became a scratch but I had Wilder and I checked my team yesterday morning to see about any last changes and I didn't see that he was scratched then... oh well, win last week and probably come in last this week, lol...

Jesse · July 26, 2019, 02:55:25 PM

I picked late, so didn't have any Calgary or Ottawa players, but Trever Harris had a slow game for what he was worth and Picking a Toronto receiver backfired with 0 points.

Shaq Cooper was a great choice though.

RebusRankin · July 26, 2019, 03:25:10 PM

Shaq Cooper and the Edmonton D made up for Brescasin and Arbuckle.

66 Chevelle · July 26, 2019, 06:11:13 PM

man it's tough on ya when you have a player lay an egg for ya, lol... even tougher when you play the game like I do, foregoing buying a defense and opting to spend up on skill positions... I've done pretty well 'playing one man down' (no defense) because it has worked out for me the better skill player can make more points than I lose by getting one...

Brescasin has been solid all year as well, I was a little surprised... and Wilder, I swear that yesterday morning there was no talk about him not playing, lol...

and Jesse, I did the same as you a couple of weeks ago and didn't get my roster picked before the thursday game started... in a 9 team league, it puts you at a real disadvantage when you lose 25% of the available pool of players!