Grey Cup 2023 pre-game

TecnoGenius · November 14, 2023, 03:35:23 AM

Quote from: Pete on November 14, 2023, 03:10:42 AM
As far as the run game we need to spread out the defense, have Grant come in and go wide. Nothing to save it for now so have Demski /Bailey active on sweeps, and get the ball to Olivera on short passes. Then Olivera can do what he does best.

The other key is special teams, we continue to give up too many big returns, to the point where in the second half if we have a choice of a small wind or taking the ball we take the ball. Against bc we decided to give them the ball on both kickoffs and in the second half BC returned it out to center field. Mtrls return game is even better than BCs

I forgot Grant! Thank you for reminding me. So we have 4-5 guys that can really run the ball. Not much need to throw.

It's HAM, there will be a big wind, isn't it guaranteed? As such I can't see MOS electing to take the ball. If there's any hint of breeze he always defers. All other teams usually elect to take the ball. Not MOS.

Grant is better than Letcher. Their coverage is nothing special. I can see any ST advantage evening out over the game as a wash. I'm not sure on Cote's actual stats, but I think he's been Castillo-level this season? So that's a wash too.

MTL's D success in the EDF was very high risk, high reward. This leaves them severely vulnerable to feints and tricks as they do their INT biting and we trick them with the real play elsewhere. Buck is very good at the setup and payoff. If they do INT on us, I could see an explosion TD by us evening it out by the end.

MTL literally has no advantage in any position unit on paper. Maybe you could argue LB now that Biggie's out. Maybe. But every other unit is the same or worse compared to our squads.

Final note: it's clear to me the WPG hunger is back. Just watch our players during and after the game! We got it back baby! MTL doesn't strike me as hungry. I think they are shocked to be there. They are too young and don't know the cold fury that is about to bear down on them.

Tiger · November 14, 2023, 04:00:16 AM

I think the hunger is back, but if not let them watch the loss to Marcus Crandall and the Stampeders.

TecnoGenius · November 14, 2023, 06:32:15 AM

I'm pretty sure we spent all of the last off-season and much of this season solving the puzzle of how to beat TOR. Just as TOR did against us. TOR was basically guaranteed to be in the cup, as were we.

So I'm thinking how much might this hurt us in the GC? We haven't spent any time at all thinking about how to beat MTL. If you said we should in last FA you'd get laughed out of town.

I realized that everything we've done to prep for TOR pretty much directly applies to us beating MTL:

1. Find a way to limit turnovers against great DBs with a high TO ratio (TOR check, MTL check)
2. Find a way to run against very big and talented front 7 (TOR check, MTL check)
3. Find a way to improve the short pass game against tight coverage (TOR check, MTL check)
4. Find a way to stop the mobile QB running for big yards (TOR check, MTL check)
5. Find a way to stop a league-best returner (TOR check, MTL, just recently, check)

TOR and MTL are so similar in all the above ways, so all the prep we did for that will pay off even though the GC opponent has (shockingly) changed.

Even better, we get all the gravy of things we've kept steady or improved that we would need against TOR but won't (much) against MTL because of MTL's weaknesses:

1. Improving our pass rush against a great OL (TOR check, but MTL bad OL)
2. Improving our run stop against a great RB (TOR check, but MTL weak RB and OL)
3. Limiting explosions by a QB capable of deep accuracy (TOR check, but MTL can't throw deep at all)

There's only one thing MTL is better than TOR on: they have a legit receiver or two. Mack and Philpot are superb at their game, far better than Daniels (see: EDF results). Snead/Spieker are decent too. But most of the season (and WDF) we hosed teams with far better receivers: namely BC and EDM. And Cody can't throw beyond 25Y. So I'm not worried at all that MTL may have one thing we didn't plan for vs TOR.

If we were built to have a 50/50 or greater shot at beating juggernaut TOR, then I don't see how we can't beat MTL given all the extra advantages we have vs a far weaker team than what we prepped for. All we have to do is play cool, tight Bomber ball and ignore any adversity MTL might manage to luck into. Even if both teams are run-run-punt all night, we'll eventually win because we'll get that little extra yardage on every play.

TecnoGenius · November 14, 2023, 10:09:06 AM

Rewatched the EDF to study MTL. Some observations, mostly regarding non-garbage time (before the 24-3 lead):

- They played 3 man DL a whole ton. A 4th would come in sometimes if the RB or WR stayed in to block. I think the thinking was that the TOR OL was so good and they don't run it that much that why not just drop everyone into coverage. They really were fine with giving up 6Y runs and passes as much as TOR wanted. They knew TOR/Kelly are impatient and don't want 6 at a time... they always want those 20Y passes.

- They would still bring 3 DL even on obvious run downs. Very bizarre. But it worked. They'd give up a couple of decent runs but mostly stop them at 5-7Y as the droppers come back to the carrier. A 4th guy would often be close by though as a spy or a late rusher.

- I would guess MTL would use less 3 man DL on us, and go more traditional, because they would have zero reason to spy Zach as he's no run threat. Once they account for Brady they won't need a spy. Jackson slipping out for a dump pass might be effective.

- When not doing 3 man DL they did a ton of WPG-esque scheme and blitz disguising. You never know who's coming and who's dropping. The more I watch MTL the more I think they just study WPG and imitate us, on both sides.

- On O they are copying our massive pre-snap motion and post-snap crossing/assignment-changes. It's very confusing for me to track what it is they're doing in livetime: even with replays it can take a moment to figure it out. I can only imagine what this does to D's, especially in man coverage.

- They are using a lot of TE & maxpro (true TE i.e. FB rather than 6th hoggie). A lot of FB half back like we use Jackson. And it's about 50/50 run vs pass on these beefy formations so the formation doesn't give much of a hint.

- Their FB gets more targets. When he's on the field they're considering him a read maybe 20-25% of the time. Far far more than we do Jackson. Need to keep an eye on Tuck/Dallaire in this regard.

I love how MTL took what was TOR's strength we all noticed: mid-range passes, particularly in the middle, and turned it against them via INTs by dropping 1 DL back a lot, and dropping LBers 10-15Y back all the time, and not having DBs too deep. It's probably the same plan we would have used against TOR. Kelly isn't great super deep threat, and clearly TOR has no patience for the dink & dunk. Arrogance. Cost them.

TecnoGenius · November 14, 2023, 10:16:20 AM

Must watch the rail on ST kick returns by MTL. That's been our weakest point in ST coverage and clearly MTL knows how to "cheat" down the rail with little hidden IBs. I can totally see them attacking this in the GC like they did in the EDF. If I know it, they know it. And everyone's so bunched up the refs can't see all the chicanery going on.

Regardless of what MTL ST does, I want to see Grant with some big returns. I think he's only had one "big" return (but not TD) since returning from his last injury. He usually finds a way in these big games. He was quiet the other night. MTL ST coverage isn't anything special, so big yards should be possible.

Pete · November 15, 2023, 09:32:26 PM

first injury report doesnt look great. Demski Bailey Wilson jeffcoat, Bighill all dnp..for mtrl no dnp's, looks like lemons ok to go.
I know this is par for the course for us but still

TecnoGenius · November 15, 2023, 11:13:29 PM

If I'm MTL, I'm starting on D play 1 loading the box and stopping the run. I'm stuffing the run the whole first series. I'm sending a message that you won't run on them. I'm making Zach throw to a reduced R corps. I'm forcing him to air it to the ball-hawk DBs. I think MTL has the talent and beef on DL/LB to stop the run if that's their focus. BC didn't take this advice and lost the whole game on our first O drive's momentum.

If I'm WPG, I'm starting on O play 1 chucking it to the short routes (but not wideouts) and vacated flats on play action and clearing routes. I'm dumping it to Brady or even Jackson (or Eli!) who squirt out unnoticed. I'm focussing on Woli and Bailey and using Kenny as clearing bait. I'm doing creative run plays to our capable sweepers and screeners. I won't run it up the gut at all until I've forced MTL to loosen up. The first few downs will set the tone for the whole game. We can't just have Brady stuffed for a 2 yard gain every 1st and fail on the pass every 2nd.

Our OL vs their front-7 is going to be a wash. The game won't be won in that trench. Our O game will be won purely on strategy and execution and establishing that we can hurt them in the air (even if for short gains). Only then will the play action / RPO allow us to get Brady going.

Our big advantage is we will dominate the trenches in our front 7 vs their OL. We will eviscerate them all night. They know this, so they will do what they did vs TOR and go short and mid-pass heavy, with maybe 1-2 deep shots all night, all failures. Cody will get the ball out extremely fast every down to negate our superior pass rush. He won't make the VAJ mistake. Cody will run 7-10 times and needs to be punished every time. Stanback will do nothing except on a couple of delayed draws and a couple of 2nd & 3's.

If Buck & Zach play smart ball and make good choices and we don't turn the ball over, the game is ours for the taking. Zach needs to remember he has the option to throw it away. No desperation throws.

Blue In BC · November 15, 2023, 11:20:46 PM

Today's IR report on Facebook: Schoen, Bailey, Demski, Wilson, Bighill, Jeffcoat all listed as DNP. We go through this every week and most of them end up playing. I guess we'll see on Saturday what changes are made. No mention of McCrae would didn't play last week but was dressed in theory?

Bomber roster finally updated. I still find it odd that so many of the PR players ended up on the 1 game IR. Put another way even more curious about those left on the PR.

Alston is on the 1 game IR and Ambles is on the PR. Rose is on 1 game IR and Lawrence is on the PR.

Blue In BC · November 15, 2023, 11:23:59 PM

Quote from: TecnoGenius on November 15, 2023, 11:13:29 PM
If I'm MTL, I'm starting on D play 1 loading the box and stopping the run. I'm stuffing the run the whole first series. I'm sending a message that you won't run on them. I'm making Zach throw to a reduced R corps. I'm forcing him to air it to the ball-hawk DBs. I think MTL has the talent and beef on DL/LB to stop the run if that's their focus. BC didn't take this advice and lost the whole game on our first O drive's momentum.

If I'm WPG, I'm starting on O play 1 chucking it to the short routes (but not wideouts) and vacated flats on play action and clearing routes. I'm dumping it to Brady or even Jackson (or Eli!) who squirt out unnoticed. I'm focussing on Woli and Bailey and using Kenny as clearing bait. I'm doing creative run plays to our capable sweepers and screeners. I won't run it up the gut at all until I've forced MTL to loosen up. The first few downs will set the tone for the whole game. We can't just have Brady stuffed for a 2 yard gain every 1st and fail on the pass every 2nd.

Our OL vs their front-7 is going to be a wash. The game won't be won in that trench. Our O game will be won purely on strategy and execution and establishing that we can hurt them in the air (even if for short gains). Only then will the play action / RPO allow us to get Brady going.

Our big advantage is we will dominate the trenches in our front 7 vs their OL. We will eviscerate them all night. They know this, so they will do what they did vs TOR and go short and mid-pass heavy, with maybe 1-2 deep shots all night, all failures. Cody will get the ball out extremely fast every down to negate our superior pass rush. He won't make the VAJ mistake. Cody will run 7-10 times and needs to be punished every time. Stanback will do nothing except on a couple of delayed draws and a couple of 2nd & 3's.

If Buck & Zach play smart ball and make good choices and we don't turn the ball over, the game is ours for the taking. Zach needs to remember he has the option to throw it away. No desperation throws.

Bombers always seem to run Oliveria right up the gut on the 1st offensive play. I think most teams know that but few can stop it. I'm not sure the Als can do that consistently but they might on the 1st play of the game.

That puts us in 2nd and long and without our receivers 100% healthy that's not a good thing. Time to bring out an easy slant or something?

The Zipp · November 16, 2023, 02:14:26 AM

Pete · November 16, 2023, 04:35:09 PM

Do we know whose calling the game for tsn.? as long as its not suitor Im ok but I hope its Dustin Neilson with Matt Dunigan

blue_gold_84 · November 16, 2023, 04:41:15 PM

Quote from: Pete on November 16, 2023, 04:35:09 PM
Do we know whose calling the game for tsn.? as long as its not suitor Im ok but I hope its Dustin Neilson with Matt Dunigan

It'll be ~~Neilson~~ and Suitor, the same duo who has called the last two championships since Cuthbert left.

EDIT: I was mistaken. It was Rod Smith and Glen Suitor for GC108 and GC109. It'll be the same duo for GC110.

Pigskin · November 16, 2023, 04:56:13 PM

Excellent weather for practice again today with temps around 14. Not so much tomorrow, looks like rain for most of the afternoon. Then the temps start to drop for the weekend.

The Zipp · November 16, 2023, 05:41:08 PM

Quote from: blue_gold_84 on November 16, 2023, 04:41:15 PM
It'll be Neilson and Suitor, the same duo who has called the last two championships since Cuthbert left.

i would prefer Rod and Duane...I consider them the A team...but here is the lineup, did Duane Ford do something to not be included?

The CFL ON TSN team is on-site at Tim Hortons Field, with live game coverage led by play-by-play commentator Rod Smith alongside game analyst Glen Suitor. The CFL ON TSN panel features Kate Beirness alongside analysts Matt Dunigan, Milt Stegall, and Davis Sanchez, who break down all things GREY CUP, with contributions from Paul LaPolice. TSN?s James Duthie is joined by Jim Barker and Hamilton Tiger-Cats quarterback and two-time Grey Cup MVP Bo Levi Mitchell, who provide additional analysis. TSN Football Insiders Dave Naylor and Farhan Lalji deliver news updates on both teams, and SPORTSCENTRE?s Claire Hanna and Matthew Scianitti report from the sidelines.

Fans can also tune in to live, nationwide radio coverage of the CFL championship game on the Grey Cup Radio Network, led by play-by-play commentator Dustin Neilson alongside game analyst Marshall Ferguson. Pre-game coverage begins Sunday, Nov. 19 at 4 p.m. ET, leading into kickoff at 6 p.m. ET. For a full list of radio stations delivering live broadcast coverage, click here. Listeners can also stream live on iHeartRadio.ca, TSN.ca/Radio, and on the iHeartRadio Canada and TSN apps.

blue_gold_84 · November 16, 2023, 06:08:22 PM

Quote from: Pigskin on November 16, 2023, 04:56:13 PM
Excellent weather for practice again today with temps around 14. Not so much tomorrow, looks like rain for most of the afternoon. Then the temps start to drop for the weekend.

I noticed Bighill didn't have a walking boot on at today's practice. He seemed to be moving around without issue, which is a good sign.