Likely regular season outcome? (and tiebreaking rules!)

[Tecno]

How do you think we'll end the regular season?  What seems realistic to you?  We have EDM & BC next and we have all possible tiebreakers against SSK & CGY.  CGY has only 1 more game, so a CGY loss or any WPG win and we're in.

If three or more clubs are tied in points, the CFL evaluates them in descending order of priority, starting with most total league wins, head-to-head winning percentage, head-to-head net aggregate points, and head-to-head point quotient.

peg_city is right, after confirming by calling up the rules.  So now we can do like the "Rider Math" on their forum (a great thread BTW) and do some "Bomber Math":

The final point of the tie-breaking rule is interesting:

"if two clubs remain tied after other club(s) are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step (a)"

... means that at each step you eliminate a/some team(s) (I guess and work out their tie-breaker if required), and then work out the higher remaining teams tie-breaker.

The possible 3-way is WPG, SSK, CGY.  I guess there are possibilities 2-3 teams are tied with BC if BC loses all their remaining games, but that is highly unlikely.

tie-breaking records
WPG 2 CGY 1
WPG 1 SSK 1 (WPG scored more)
CGY 1 SSK 1 (CGY scored more)
= 7 games total
* no other games between these 3 teams left!

Of the 7 games, % won:
WPG 42.8%
CGY 28.5%
SSK 28.5%

Wow, so by beating CGY we actually beat SSK too, should there be a 3-way tie!!  That's huge.  I wonder if anyone in WFC thought this through and realized this.  Winning this game is more valuable than winning any other remaining game.

Should none of these 3 teams win again, and we're all tied at 8, then we go through the west (and SSK is out of the playoffs because it then goes on to points for those 2 teams).  Same story if we all tie at 9, which is possible.

It's also likely that 2 of these 3 teams win 1 more and someone else doesn't.  As long as that loser isn't us, we are guaranteed a West playoff spot because we hold the season series against both teams.

Unfortunately EDM will play us very hard, as they can lock up the W, and nothing will be decided before they do so, since BC plays after.  Sucks for us.  That may be a loss.  But by losing to EDM we also make it extremely likely BC wins #2, which they can clinch by beating CGY the next day.

So in almost all likely scenarios, BC will have nothing to play for when we face them, making a win more likely.  In fact, if we beat EDM first, we virtually ensure not only a tough EDM slog but then, should BC lose week 20, a BC slog the next week.  Only to be followed by another BC slogfest the next week in the WSF!!  Only to be followed by a deathmatch slogfest in EDM the week after!!  Yikes... maybe the crossover is looking more attractive, since TOR is easier than BC or EDM -- but then you have league-best MTL to deal with.

[Tecno]

SSK has MTL MTL EDM... and for all those games the other team probably won't be trying.  And 2 of the games are in SSK!  Only if BC is still fighting for #1 will EDM be trying, and that will almost certainly be decided before week 21.

This means SSK might have an extremely easy schedule.  They could easily win 2 or 3!  Lucky SSK.  However, MTL won't want to break their "never lose at home" record.  So maybe they lose that one.

We could also hope EDM doesn't clinch 1st in week 20, possibly forcing EDM to try in week 21 vs SSK.  That would also require BC to win every game, which makes our BC game harder.  So darned if we do / don't on that one.  I think I'd rather both BC and EDM have to try in week 21?  I guess?  But not very likely.

BC having to try against CGY in week 20 means we almost certainly will get a xover or better, because it's CGY's final game and we're tied 8-8 with them with the tiebreaker.

I will point out that over on Riderfans a lot of them think they won't win another game, or maybe 1.  They know their team better than us, though it might be more a function of them losing everything lately than the reality of them now facing teams who won't try.

[Waffler]

This means SSK might have an extremely easy schedule.  They could easily win 2 or 3!  Lucky SSK.  However, MTL won't want to break their "never lose at home" record.  So maybe they lose that one.

I think you are forgetting that this is a Grey Cup rematch. Remember the "message" Als felt they had to send us?  I see the same attitude for this one despite them not needing it. Alexander plays the whole game like he did with us.

[Jesse]

I think you are forgetting that this is a Grey Cup rematch. Remember the "message" Als felt they had to send us?  I see the same attitude for this one despite them not needing it. Alexander plays the whole game like he did with us.

I think the ALs will want to give the Riders a beat down.

[bomb squad]

First of all, I think all 5 teams in the West are very evenly matched at this point, regardless of records. It's unfortunate one of them is going to be out. Secondly, the biggest factor working in the Bombers favour is that the game in BC will likely mean nothing for BC.

So, in terms of "most likely" outcome":

1. Mtl beats SSk tomorrow (Mtl will go full throttle at home)
2. Edm beats Wpg on Friday. (Edm still hasn't clinched 1st)
3. Ssk beats Mtl on Saturday.
4. Cgy beats BC on Saturday. (Cgy has more to play for and at home)

Final wk:

5. Wpg beats BC (BC has nothing to play for)
6. Ssk beats Edm (3rd or x-over game only for Ssk, but want to win at home)

1. Edm
2. BC
3. Ssk
4. Wpg
5. Cgy

But there are a boatload of other distinct possibilities. This is great! It doesn't look like Cgy has much of a chance however.

[bomb squad]

With a 3-way tie between Ssk, Wpg, Cgy. Win percentages I have (these won't change):

1. Wpg 3 & 2 = .600
2. Ssk 2 & 2 = .500
3. Cgy 2 & 3 = .400

[TBURGESS]

IMO: 
"Most likely" outcome":

Mtl beats Skn tomorrow 

Week 20
Edm beats Wpg (Takes first place)
BC beats Cgy (Takes 2nd)
Mtl  beats Skn 

Week 21
BC beats Wpg 
Edm beats Skn

Skn, Cgy, Wpg end with 8 wins each.