Streveler signed to one year deal - updated topic

Started by Norm W, January 12, 2024, 06:10:12 PM

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Sec223

#30
Can Zach be restructured ? Would he ? Or anyone else (Lawler) Need $$ for Shoen and BO. A good player will be leaving.

theaardvark

Quote from: TecnoGenius on January 14, 2024, 12:23:06 AM
It's the retreads that make the best SY specialists.  Le Feve & Prukop have been our best SY, and both are retreads.  When a long-term CFL QB has had enough chance to prove he's #1, and failed, they can morph into great, important, valuable SY-only guys.  The CFL has a role for them, and WFC is one of the best at signing them.

If we do get Strev, there's no need for a SY guy: I'd go for a raw ELC guy that might be the next Dru.  We succeeded with Strev and Dru.  We failed with Dom and McGuire.  Personally, I prefer Zach/Dru/Prukop, but apparently that's impossible.

SY, maybe, if he is an ELC level deal, but #2, no.  If you review the whole post and not just the last line, you will understand my concepts, which preclude any QB's being paid a premium just for CFL experience, and not CFL success.  I'd rather have a guy with an unknown ceiling at an ELC cost, rather than a guy who has had some experience, limited success, but is paid $125k-$150k.  We need those $$$ elsewhere, and we need players that can surprise us with their play.
Unabashed positron.  Blue koolaid in my fridge.  I wear my blue sunglasses at night.  Homer, d'oh.

Pete

Quote from: Sec223 on January 14, 2024, 11:58:25 AM
Can Zach be restructured ? Would he ? Or anyone else (Lawler) Need $$ for Shoen and BO. A good player will be leaving.
I'm not sure that Zac can be restructured, for other qbs it has been paying out a bonus prior to season, that because of tax reasons still doesn't lessen the contract. Doesn't he live in Ontario off season? so the tax benefit may not be the same as someone who lives in the states.
The only way may be to
1. accept a true pay cut (which unless we feel he's on a definite decline he likely won't do
2. redo his contract for a longer term and less dollars per year, (likely guaranteed to some extent) which with his age I'm not sure we'd do,

Blue In BC

#33
Quote from: Pete on January 14, 2024, 03:52:20 PM
I'm not sure that Zac can be restructured, for other qbs it has been paying out a bonus prior to season, that because of tax reasons still doesn't lessen the contract. Doesn't he live in Ontario off season? so the tax benefit may not be the same as someone who lives in the states.
The only way may be to
1. accept a true pay cut (which unless we feel he's on a definite decline he likely won't do
2. redo his contract for a longer term and less dollars per year, (likely guaranteed to some extent) which with his age I'm not sure we'd do,

I can't see extending the contract at this point. Since we don't know all the details, there might already be an early bonus to reduce the tax situation.

Getting any player to agree to an actual cut is never going to be easy. He's is and has been the top QB in the CFL.

It's a huge risk to consider a trade option by staying with Brown. I have no idea what Brown would accept as a salary for next year if he was appointed as our starter. Let's just say $350K. In theory that would shave the SMS by $250K which is significant.

Trading Collaros could in theory bring big benefits in draft choices and / or possibly other trade value. That's what some have suggested we do and I understand the logic.

I'm not proposing we take this option but I wouldn't take it off the table quite yet either.

Lots of moving pieces with 27 potential free agents including 3 receivers, 4 OL, our starting RB and both our other QB's.

Who will be able to retain staying with Collaros and does the picture change if we decide Brown is a better option long term? Maybe our scouts will sign the next Kelly as our # 2 QB?

If any of us knew that answer we'd be a GM in the CFL, lol.

EDIT: Most GM's will know that any players success is dependent on the team around them.

I copied that from another string and is used to expand the thought of losses and gains in free agency as SMS is spent. Note that we have 4 starters looking to find an NFL home as well.

Bombers have been fortunate to sustain most of our roster over recent years. That may happen in 2024 as well. OTOH we could see significant changes compared to the last couple of years.

Makes for interesting debates and changes every time we re-sign a key player.

2019 Grey Cup Champions

Stats Junkie

Quote from: TecnoGenius on January 14, 2024, 12:14:58 AM
A MOS team needs their SY to be 99%+.  Out of Le Feve, Marve, McGuire, Prukop and Strev, Strev had the most SY failures (3? 4? 5?).  Going by memory here, but this is one of the things I watch like a hawk(tm).  Prukop will get you 99%.  Not sure what Strev will do.
Tonight on Mythbusters!

99% is a pipe dream.

Over the past 20 years (since 2004) Blue Bombers QBs have a 91.7% success rate in short yardage situations (1 yard or less required for a first down).

I'm not sure what the love affair is with Robert Marve, you have mentioned his name several times. Marve has the second worst performance among QBs with at least 10 short yardage attempts.

Robert Marve - 82.6% (19/23)
Dan LeFevour - 97.5%   (39/40) - 2nd best since 2004
Chris Streveler - 94.8%   (91/96)
Sean McGuire - 92.9%   (26/28)
Dakota Prukop - 93.1%   (81/87)
Twitter: @Stats_Junkie
Threads: statsjunkie71

TecnoGenius

Quote from: Stats Junkie on January 14, 2024, 06:28:09 PM
Tonight on Mythbusters!

99% is a pipe dream.

OK, call it missing 1 a season.  LeFeve did it, actually only missing 1 in 2 seasons.  That's my gold standard and why I always mention him first.  Looks like McGuire achieved it, too.  If you miss 0 or 1 attempt a season then that fits perfectly what MOS expects, and basically proves his point that you only need to aim for 9 yards.

Marve was OK at the time when we were sucking badly across the board, and had a pretty stinky OL.  I think he was one of the first that we turned a QB into a pure SY specialist.  We did give him some play time as #1 but he was really really bad.

Let's annotate the stats with failures divided by seasons (in bold), we'll exclude Marve since he was back when we were developing this whole idea:

Quote from: Stats Junkie on January 14, 2024, 06:28:09 PM
Dan LeFevour - 97.5%   (39/40)  1
Chris Streveler - 94.8%   (91/96)  2
Sean McGuire - 92.9%   (26/28)  1
Dakota Prukop - 93.1%   (81/87)  3

Pretty much matches my memory, with Strevie botching a few, however on a lot more attempts.

However, I don't for a second believe Prukop botched 6 3rd & 1's.  No way can that be correct.  It must include 2nd & short or whatever where he tried to throw or something.  For instance, from memory Prukop botched 0 or 1 3rd & 1's in 2023.  Maybe in his first year here he was slightly less effective?  To me Prukop is LeFeve level SY perfection.

You sure you're not including Piggy's failures before we canned him?  I've started re-watching the 2023 season and I'll specifically count Prukop's 3rd & 1 failures, and I guess go back to watch 2022 if I have to, also.

One thing's for sure, I do love to watch SY QBs who take their job extremely seriously and do all they can to hone their craft and work for 100% perfection.  As shown by posters here, it's a massively underappreciated role.  I have zero doubt MOS feels the same as me.
Never go full Rider!

blue_gold_84

Imagine getting owned by Stats Junkie and then doubling down.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect on full display.
#forthew
лава Україні!
What a wretched timeline.

GOLDMEMBER

Quote from: blue_gold_84 on January 15, 2024, 12:31:06 AM
Imagine getting owned by Stats Junkie and then doubling down.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect on full display.
:D
I LOSHT MY MEMBER IN AN UNFORTUNATE SHMELTING ACCSHIDENT!

TecnoGenius

Quote from: blue_gold_84 on January 15, 2024, 12:31:06 AM
Imagine getting owned by Stats Junkie and then doubling down.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect on full display.

I'm telling you guys, there is zero chance Prukop botched 6 3rd & 1's in 2 seasons.  Zero.  None.  Nada.  I will buy Junkie a Walby Burger in week 1 if I am wrong.

There has to be more to that stat.  Either he's including 2nd down free-plays, or 3nd & 2+, or he's convoluting Piggy failures before we canned his butt.

I have every game on PVR... I can verify every play.  I'm in the process of doing 2023, but it'll take a few weeks.

So let it all hang out peanut gallery... you guys remember Prukop botching 6 3rd & 1's in 2022-2023??  Really?  Tell me the 2023 game he botched a sneak in, let alone 2 or 6(!).  I hope you're ready for some crow!
Never go full Rider!

Throw Long Bannatyne

Quote from: TecnoGenius on January 15, 2024, 02:38:20 AM
I'm telling you guys, there is zero chance Prukop botched 6 3rd & 1's in 2 seasons.  Zero.  None.  Nada.  I will buy Junkie a Walby Burger in week 1 if I am wrong.

There has to be more to that stat.  Either he's including 2nd down free-plays, or 3nd & 2+, or he's convoluting Piggy failures before we canned his butt.

I have every game on PVR... I can verify every play.  I'm in the process of doing 2023, but it'll take a few weeks.

So let it all hang out peanut gallery... you guys remember Prukop botching 6 3rd & 1's in 2022-2023??  Really?  Tell me the 2023 game he botched a sneak in, let alone 2 or 6(!).  I hope you're ready for some crow!

Piggie came in for 2 sneaks near the goal line in one series of game #1 and failed on both of them, that was the extent of his regular season reps. in Wpg..

Stretch

Quote from: TecnoGenius on January 15, 2024, 02:38:20 AM
I'm telling you guys, there is zero chance Prukop botched 6 3rd & 1's in 2 seasons.  Zero.  None.  Nada.  I will buy Junkie a Walby Burger in week 1 if I am wrong.

I'd start saving some money if I were you.
Money is no object...especially when you have none.

TecnoGenius

#41
To be precise: what I am calling a "botched" SY attempt only includes:
1. a play that results in a turnover on downs (i.e. getting 0.5Y on 3rd & 1) (like Dom Davis did so much in MTL and BC)
2. a failure to score from 1 yard out before the end of a half (like MTL in the GC) (this case is very very rare)

Possibly you could also include:
3. a loss of yards on 2nd & 1 that forces a punt/FG; if they make the subsequent 3rd & X I would not consider it a failure.

What is NOT a botched SY attempt is:
a) needing 2 tries to get the 1st down starting with 2nd & 1-2.
b) failing a pass on 2nd & 1 (2022 GC)
c) when the ball is handed off or passed in any manner, or snapped into any gun formation; Prukop coming in on 3rd & 1 and handing it off to Brady 3Y behind the LoS is not in any way a negative reflection on Prukop.  I think we only did that idiotic move once this season.  Those mistakes are on the OC/HC.

I'm purely trying to get at the effectiveness of a QB sneaking straight forward, and sometimes going end around, not gauging the gambling prowess of the OC or HC.  Prukop messing up the pass in the GC has nothing to do with his ability to sneak.  The entire premise is as I mentioned in my first post: can MOS be right when he says you only need to get 9 yards in 2 downs because you can always sneak that extra yard in the CFL.

I would also exclude botched 3rd down SY attempts of over 1.5Y.  That is more a failure of coaching (excessive gambling) than the SY guy.  However, if it makes the stats too hard, I am happy to concede up to 3rd & 2Y if I must.  It won't change the stats much for our team.

I am telling you all right now that Prukop did not cause the Bombers to lose 6 turnovers on downs in 2 seasons.  No way no how.  Keep in mind, that whereas Junkie is going by his copious and unique stats on his computer screen, I am going solely on my memory.
Never go full Rider!

TecnoGenius

Quote from: Throw Long Bannatyne on January 15, 2024, 03:16:49 AM
Piggie came in for 2 sneaks near the goal line in one series of game #1 and failed on both of them, that was the extent of his regular season reps. in Wpg..

Which also illustrates my point: that MOS demands we can achieve 0-1 failures per season on 3rd & 1.  Piggie had that one job, and the fact we fired him so quickly after his one game of failures, further proves the point.  And if he canned Piggie for botching 2, he & KW wouldn't have been so revved up to get back Prukop if Prukop's record in 2022 was anywhere near 6 botches!!  Might as well just stick with Piggy for less money.
Never go full Rider!

blue_gold_84

#forthew
лава Україні!
What a wretched timeline.

Lincoln Locomotive

Wow...must be off season in January for everyone to be splitting hairs.   All I know is if we have to chose between Strevvy or Dakota, I'm going with Strevvy as he was able to actually win a few games in relief of Nichols in his first year.    He was also instrumental in our 2019 Quest to break our 29 year Grey Cup drought especially in the playoffs,   He's an absolute warrior and his teammates rally around him.    Dakota was a brilliant SY guy however Strevvy just brings more to the game, plus he's pretty good in SY situations at over 93% conversions.    IF we are fortunate enough to sign Strevvy then we scout for an ELC #3 QB and hope for the best.    The 1-2 Zach/Strevvy combo strikes fear into the hearts of opposing Ds.
Bomber fan for life