What If... We Won? ... MVP?

[TecnoGenius]

You want a mind-blowing What If?  What if Hallett doesn't block that FG.  What if that last drive we have to go for the major, and get 3 down ball to do it.  Then at 1:00 we don't have the option of a FG.  We have to keep going.  (Remember, WPG is the best 2 minute drill team in the league for years now.)

Does that increase our chance of winning?  I've thought a lot about it, and I think it does.  Being stuck with a Leggs 45+ FG with 1:00 on the clock reminds me too much of a Meddy 65 yard attempt in BC Place.  No one wanted to hang it all on a Leggs 40+ yard kick.

The other side of the argument was our O was stinking badly (ex-Brady).  And we couldn't even start that series without that 3rd down facemasking save.  But, on their side of the field it may have focussed the minds of all concerned.  It might have come down to a 2021-style 0:20 play where HAM Acklin gets robbed by the fingertip of Nichols: but maybe our guy makes the play.

Or, what if MOS, before the 2nd & 5 batdown pass, decides he needs to be near the 30 before he FG's, and thus definitely goes for a Brady run on 2nd & 5.  Then with 3rd & 1 or 2 we sneak Prukop.  Just keep driving 3 down ball until we get to the 30.  Ya, MOS did it "by the book", but no one who knows our team had better than 50% confidence Leggs was going to make that kick.

Did everyone see the huge BLEEEEEP by Zach after the 2nd & 5 batdown?  He knew he and the O just blew controlling their own destiny and rested the entire season on the iffy leg of Leggs that absolutely no one in WPG wanted to see happen.  He sensed the impending loss at that moment.  There was complete silence in the area I was sitting in where everyone who watched all our games knew the dire and critical moment WPG was in.  The way it ended was a massive shock as everyone was bracing for a miss, but instead got a block.

P.S. Still think Leggs makes that kick if not blocked.  Laces weren't perfect, but also not touching the foot.  I can frame-by-frame that kick on my computer and it looks good, though left, the wind likely blows it in (see flags).

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

You want a mind-blowing What If?  What if Hallett doesn't block that FG.  What if that last drive we have to go for the major, and get 3 down ball to do it.  Then at 1:00 we don't have the option of a FG.  We have to keep going.  (Remember, WPG is the best 2 minute drill team in the league for years now.)

Does that increase our chance of winning?  I've thought a lot about it, and I think it does.  Being stuck with a Leggs 45+ FG with 1:00 on the clock reminds me too much of a Meddy 65 yard attempt in BC Place.  No one wanted to hang it all on a Leggs 40+ yard kick.

The other side of the argument was our O was stinking badly (ex-Brady).  And we couldn't even start that series without that 3rd down facemasking save.  But, on their side of the field it may have focussed the minds of all concerned.  It might have come down to a 2021-style 0:20 play where HAM Acklin gets robbed by the fingertip of Nichols: but maybe our guy makes the play.

Or, what if MOS, before the 2nd & 5 batdown pass, decides he needs to be near the 30 before he FG's, and thus definitely goes for a Brady run on 2nd & 5.  Then with 3rd & 1 or 2 we sneak Prukop.  Just keep driving 3 down ball until we get to the 30.  Ya, MOS did it "by the book", but no one who knows our team had better than 50% confidence Leggs was going to make that kick.

Did everyone see the huge BLEEEEEP by Zach after the 2nd & 5 batdown?  He knew he and the O just blew controlling their own destiny and rested the entire season on the iffy leg of Leggs that absolutely no one in WPG wanted to see happen.  He sensed the impending loss at that moment.  There was complete silence in the area I was sitting in where everyone who watched all our games knew the dire and critical moment WPG was in.  The way it ended was a massive shock as everyone was bracing for a miss, but instead got a block.

P.S. Still think Leggs makes that kick if not blocked.  Laces weren't perfect, but also not touching the foot.  I can frame-by-frame that kick on my computer and it looks good, though left, the wind likely blows it in (see flags).

If you're going to go back frame by frame on the FG attempt, check how high the blocker got off the ground, in my view Robbie Smith got his hands up but was not significantly higher than any of his teammates and may still have been in contact with the ground, which puts his hands at about 8 feet.  I think the kick lacked sufficient elevation to clear the line period.

[theaardvark]

But note how not a single voter in this poll chose Zach.  I'm thinking the TSN voters would not have picked Zach either.  If we pulled off the win it was in spite of Zach, not because of.  He really did not much of anything (of benefit!) all night.  Handing off to Brady doesn't count.  The only great pass I recall was the timing out to Ellingson.  That was a thing of beauty.  Should have done that on 2nd & 5.

But that's the point.  The most likely way we win is if Zach played better... and then he gets the nod...

[TecnoGenius]

If you're going to go back frame by frame on the FG attempt, check how high the blocker got off the ground, in my view Robbie Smith got his hands up but was not significantly higher than any of his teammates and may still have been in contact with the ground, which puts his hands at about 8 feet.  I think the kick lacked sufficient elevation to clear the line period.

I did take that into account.  The elevation looked good for a high-40's FG attempt.  I know what you're saying, but you have to go lower trajectory to make the ones close to 50.

There's about 5 useful frames to figure this all out in.  And it gets blurry.  But clearly you can see that the ball hits the fingertips of the defender's highest hand, which is above everyone's head line and at least 2 feet closer to Leggs than the other D's helmets.  You can tell it's the fingertips because the ball keeps going and keeps going up but has lost a lot of momentum.

I see what you're saying, and it possibly is closer than we're used to seeing, but I'm 100% certain it clears the line if that D's hand isn't there.  Looks like a 47Y attempt, and you need a low trajectory for that.  Could Leggs have elevated a bit more: sure.  But I think he wanted to ensure he had the distance.

The first 2 angles (live and then replay) aren't great because you can't get a sense of depth.  But they play what looks like a EZ-cone angle shot a bit later and it is very clear there is enough elevation on it.  The next closest obstruction is one of our OL helmets and it clearly will clear that.

Another problem is the whole DL is getting big push on our blockers.  Sayles is the main culprit, but even the hoggies are having trouble with the TOR-overloaded left side of the line.  The whole FG blocking scheme needs to be looked at and adjustments need to be allowed when a D is overloading one side.  And I never want to see a DT in FG block duty on a "must make - who cares about a return" attempt again.  You put every dressed hoggie out there instead.

[TecnoGenius]

But that's the point.  The most likely way we win is if Zach played better... and then he gets the nod...

Ah, but the What If was if the only thing different was Leggs gets to make that FG.  If we go down the rabbit-hole of What If Zach played better, we'll be here forever!  Zach was just off.  He never likes the cold (remember the interview with Strevie?).  He did his INT thing and this time we didn't recover.  Buck didn't help at all either.

The more I watch this GC, the more I come away with the impression TOR was listening in on the WPG play calls.  That means either a) Buck was very vanilla in his calls (seems true), b) TOR film-studied the heck out of us (seems true), and/or c) they listened in.  Of course, you do a & b well you don't need c.  But TOR did it uncannily well.  I'm not saying TOR did cheat, just that it seemed like they were in on the playbook.  And if TOR did a & b so well, you must ask why our coaches didn't do the same?  Why didn't Buck come up with one of his insanely creative and unique games like we saw all season?

If you watch our O you'll see that almost every play the TOR D covered precisely what it was we were trying to do.  Run play, they stuff the box.  Non-Brady run: run blitz.  Pass: cover 2 zone, oops there's an INT.  They had our number all game.  We really only scored and stayed alive because of penalties.  And Brady's tough running (and OL blocks) overcoming their D even when they knew it was a run.  Why didn't we try the deep pass again after that 1Q near-miss to Schoen?

It really felt like we were the 2012-2014 Bombers playing against CGY.  Every play was futile as their D was always in the precise spot our plays were and no one was ever open.  I remember those painful games.  But those were worse because we didn't have the RB and OL talent to still get some rush yards.

Makes me start thinking about the helmet tech.  Is it encrypted?  Who controls the keys?  Can you bug the booth?  SSK hates WPG, you make a shady deal with the grounds chief.  I'm sure thoughts about this are a big deal in the NFL, where billions are at stake.  Does the CFL expend any energy on making sure we have it secure?

No I'm not tinfoil saying they listened in, but I am saying it sure appears that they had our number from play #1.

[J5V]

No I'm not tinfoil saying they listened in, but I am saying it sure appears that they had our number from play #1.

Yup. Playing the Argos in Sask made me extremely nervous for some of the reasons you allude to here. Nothing would surprise me.