Strategies for the Semi-Finals

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

I don't think the Calgary run game means as much in the dome. I can see Calgary winning the time of possession and still be behind on the score board due to Rourke being able to strike quickly and pile up points. The dome favors deep passes since there is no wind to worry about. I don't think BC will ever be out of it. Campbell took Rourke out early last week precisely so he would be ready for this game.  Can't wait to see this one.

There is a reason the CFL is known as a passing league, it's the easiest and quickest way to score points.  If a team relied solely on their running game without being able to complete longer passes, they would eat up the clock and run out of time trying to keep pace.  Not sure Maier has a good long game, the last couple of times I watched it looked like they were transitioning to a shorter passing game to compliment their running game.

[TecnoGenius]

Not sure Maier has a good long game, the last couple of times I watched it looked like they were transitioning to a shorter passing game to compliment their running game.

Thus full circle back to my original post: I think what you saw was a fake-out to fool BC into preparing for the wrong thing.  I think it's a ruse and CGY will be pass-heavy.  If Henry is back then I think they can pull it off.

On the other hand, BC's DBs are top-3 in league.  So it should be a fun fight no matter what happens.

[J5V]

Prediction: Rourke goes on a tear for the half and builds up enough of a lead for BC to win the game. He is pulled when his foot is re-injured and he can't heal fast enough to play in the western final.

I love it! LOL!

[ichabod_crane]

Looks like burnham is back for bc, lucky already ruled out for the semi.

[ModAdmin]

The key for a BC win is Nathan Rourke.  He has to be healthy, productive and mobile in order for BC to have any hope in winning this game.  If any of these three attributes are missing, Calgary will win.

[TecnoGenius]

Looks like burnham is back for bc, lucky already ruled out for the semi.

Is it time Lucky finds a new nickname?  Is this his 3rd non-trivial injury?  Love the dude, but he gets ragdolled like B.Banks out there sometimes.

The key for a BC win is Nathan Rourke.  He has to be healthy, productive and mobile in order for BC to have any hope in winning this game.  If any of these three attributes are missing, Calgary will win.

He was doing so well with reads and launch speed and accuracy I really do think Rourke can win without the mobility.  If I'm Campbell, I'm probably giving him strict instructions to not run past the LoS.  But he can't have any rust: rust like he had at IGF will mean BC gets creamed.

I can't remember a year I was looking towards the SF's more than this year.  It's going to be great games on both sides, and the winners are anyone's guess.

[jdrattops]

Thoughts on how the semi-final teams draw their game plans up?

I have a theory about CGY: I think they've been hiding their pass game a bit for several weeks now.  Maier isn't the best, but he's easily a 275Y QB in a playoff game with that team.  If you asked anyone right now what CGY will do, they'll all say "run the ball" with Carey/Logan and maybe Mills.  That's what Campbell in BC is saying in his pressers.  That's what TSN people were saying in the final week.

So I think CGY comes out pass-heavy and maybe doesn't even run the ball until they get close to the red zone on their first drive.  They'll send the message they are going to pass all game right when the BC DC has mostly prepared to stop the run.  Then once they've loosened up the whole D, then CGY will start running down their throats.  I think that's the key to an easy CGY victory.

I think CGY will make a mistake by playing Jorden too much and he'll flounder just like he did in the '19 WSF.  He's a #3 read at best now.  They should let him go in the off-season.  And I still haven't found the answer to my question: Will Henry be back?  That would be huge.

BC will have to figure something out with Burnham still nicked, wearing a wrist contraption, Lucky likely out or playing severely injured, and Rourke likely nursing a Strevy-style foot (without the Strevie-style lionheart).  I'll give BC's best strategies some thought, because as of yet I really can't think of any way for them to win!

I don't see Calgary coming out pass heavy, as their mantra for the year has been ball control and trying to chew up the clock.  It will be a problem for them if they have to get into the pass heavy game.  Maier is 98% short quick and accurate timing throws, and Calgary really doesn't use the run to open up the deep threats (especially if Henry is out).  I wouldn't consider Bagelton a deep threat either.  BC will try and stretch the field and pile on the points, if this happens Calgary may not have enough time with Maier to recover (will we see BLM again?). 

Here's how I see it TG:

Calgary plays ball control on offense and tries to wear down BC, 50-50 pass vs run, nickel and dime down the field.  On D they bring pressure and force Rourke to plant and throw early, which could be an issue for him with the injury.  The key of the game is the Calgary D stopping the 20+ yard plays and quick scores by BC.  If they force BC to methodically move down the field thus slowing down their offense, Calgary wins.  If it gets into a shootout, I don't see Maier having enough tools in his toolbox to win.  Calgary needs to run to win on Sunday and control the clock/flow of the game.

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

Thus full circle back to my original post: I think what you saw was a fake-out to fool BC into preparing for the wrong thing.  I think it's a ruse and CGY will be pass-heavy.  If Henry is back then I think they can pull it off.

On the other hand, BC's DBs are top-3 in league.  So it should be a fun fight no matter what happens.

Nah, it's going to be stop us if you can, they lost 6 games this year, 3 to Wpg., 2 to the Lions, and 1 to Hammy, the Stamps are well aware what they've done in the past hasn't been working in recent years, especially against the Bombers.

[TecnoGenius]

Good takes, jdrattops & TLB.  That clearly seems to be the consensus.  My only problem with that is a) it wouldn't present BC with a "curve ball", and b) it's what Campbell has stated they are preparing for, and c) it assumes CGY is a best-in-league team that can win with just straight-forward no-tricks.

Even if CGY can win against BC playing just like they have the last 4 weeks, I really don't think they are good enough to beat WPG that way.  So if they ball-control it with BC, they might be saving the big pass game for WPG.  It's a risky gamble, as they might not make it that far.

The depth charts are out and Henry is indeed in the lineup at WR.  Before you write off CGY deep pass mania, consider how Maier was throwing constant 50 yarders to Henry earlier in the year...

Also interesting is they benched Logan for Mills.  I think that's the best idea as Mills outplayed Logan.  However, Carey and Mills are similar backs.  Logan gave them a change of pace.  Can both backs get into a rhythm splitting the reps?

[J5V]

Good takes, jdrattops & TLB.  That clearly seems to be the consensus.  My only problem with that is a) it wouldn't present BC with a "curve ball", and b) it's what Campbell has stated they are preparing for, and c) it assumes CGY is a best-in-league team that can win with just straight-forward no-tricks.

Even if CGY can win against BC playing just like they have the last 4 weeks, I really don't think they are good enough to beat WPG that way.  So if they ball-control it with BC, they might be saving the big pass game for WPG.  It's a risky gamble, as they might not make it that far.

The depth charts are out and Henry is indeed in the lineup at WR.  Before you write off CGY deep pass mania, consider how Maier was throwing constant 50 yarders to Henry earlier in the year...

Also interesting is they benched Logan for Mills.  I think that's the best idea as Mills outplayed Logan.  However, Carey and Mills are similar backs.  Logan gave them a change of pace.  Can both backs get into a rhythm splitting the reps?

Yup, all good takes. Calgary has always known that they'll have to go through us to get to the promised land and I think they built their team and designed their approach with us in mind. I think they believe the way to beat Richie Hall's defense is with error-free football, a ball-control offense, and a heavy accent on running. They've got 3 guys that can deliver the mail and the O-line to get it done. Whether that will work on BC remains to be seen but BC has some worrisome issues with Rourke's foot and injuries to their O-line. I'm definitely pulling for the Leo's in this one as I think we have a much easier time with BC than we will with Calgary. I sense that BC is just happy to be in the playoffs whereas Calgary has their sights set squarely on the Blue and Gold.

To answer your question, yes I believe Calgary's backs can definitely get into a rhythm splitting reps. I think that's exactly what they're going to do. Those guys can grind it out and not knowing which one to key on is going to be a nightmare.

[pjrocksmb]

https://3downnation.com/2022/11/05/lions-lose-left-tackle-joel-figueroa-for-west-semi-final/

[TecnoGenius]

https://3downnation.com/2022/11/05/lions-lose-left-tackle-joel-figueroa-for-west-semi-final/

Ya, the depth chart already reflected that change.  Broxton/Norman are pretty good themselves.  And BC still keeps its 3-IMP OL concept intact.  I don't think it'll hurt their pass-pro, but it might hurt their run game a bit.

[TecnoGenius]

Not as much talk about the East:

With the depth charts out it's amazing how much better the MTL O looks on paper than HAM O.  MTL has real playmakers and gamebreakers.  E.Lewis might be a top-2 receiver in the CFL.  There are no clinkers at SB/WR in MTL.

HAM basically has T.White and maybe Dunbar.  That's it.

Hills has been super impressive.  Compare to Stanback who looked rusty and weak in his return from injury.  There might be a reason why MTL is dressing 3 RB.

HAM D looks better on paper, but not by much.  That LB corps there is solid and GC-experienced.

Let's not forget the intangible that propelled WPG to victory in '19... Hunger and heart.  I think HAM is hungry to get to the GC.  And I know their vets have heart.  MTL is a younger team with a (yes, refurbished) fresh HC.  I think MTL is very eager to win a playoff so they can improve on last year.  But I think they don't expect to be in the GC.

These games will be beat'em'up and who wins is anyone's guess.  I picked HAM, but it could go either way.  Evans could really, really stink up the joint.  (And if they put Schiltz in, it's game over.)  Then again, so could Trevor.  If HAM beats MTL, they have a shot against TOR.  If MTL wins, I think TOR wipes the floor with them.

So it's younger talent vs experience and heart.  Pays yer money and takes yer chances!

[Jesse]

Good takes, jdrattops & TLB.  That clearly seems to be the consensus.  My only problem with that is a) it wouldn't present BC with a "curve ball", and b) it's what Campbell has stated they are preparing for, and c) it assumes CGY is a best-in-league team that can win with just straight-forward no-tricks.

Even if CGY can win against BC playing just like they have the last 4 weeks, I really don't think they are good enough to beat WPG that way.  So if they ball-control it with BC, they might be saving the big pass game for WPG.  It's a risky gamble, as they might not make it that far.

The depth charts are out and Henry is indeed in the lineup at WR.  Before you write off CGY deep pass mania, consider how Maier was throwing constant 50 yarders to Henry earlier in the year...

Also interesting is they benched Logan for Mills.  I think that's the best idea as Mills outplayed Logan.  However, Carey and Mills are similar backs.  Logan gave them a change of pace.  Can both backs get into a rhythm splitting the reps?

Teams may practice certain plays as a curve ball, or even a scripted first drive, but they're not going to deviate from what they do best. That doesn't make much sense.

That said, in a Calgary win, Maier has to play a strong game.

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

Good takes, jdrattops & TLB.  That clearly seems to be the consensus.  My only problem with that is a) it wouldn't present BC with a "curve ball", and b) it's what Campbell has stated they are preparing for, and c) it assumes CGY is a best-in-league team that can win with just straight-forward no-tricks.

Even if CGY can win against BC playing just like they have the last 4 weeks, I really don't think they are good enough to beat WPG that way.  So if they ball-control it with BC, they might be saving the big pass game for WPG.  It's a risky gamble, as they might not make it that far.

The depth charts are out and Henry is indeed in the lineup at WR.  Before you write off CGY deep pass mania, consider how Maier was throwing constant 50 yarders to Henry earlier in the year...

Also interesting is they benched Logan for Mills.  I think that's the best idea as Mills outplayed Logan.  However, Carey and Mills are similar backs.  Logan gave them a change of pace.  Can both backs get into a rhythm splitting the reps?

I'm really surprised the Stamps are not dressing Logan for at least punt and kickoff returns, I was expecting a 3-headed monster, maybe he's injured.  They don't even list who will perform those duties on their depth chart, which IMO is calculated deception.