Strategies for the Semi-Finals

[TecnoGenius]

Thoughts on how the semi-final teams draw their game plans up?

I have a theory about CGY: I think they've been hiding their pass game a bit for several weeks now.  Maier isn't the best, but he's easily a 275Y QB in a playoff game with that team.  If you asked anyone right now what CGY will do, they'll all say "run the ball" with Carey/Logan and maybe Mills.  That's what Campbell in BC is saying in his pressers.  That's what TSN people were saying in the final week.

So I think CGY comes out pass-heavy and maybe doesn't even run the ball until they get close to the red zone on their first drive.  They'll send the message they are going to pass all game right when the BC DC has mostly prepared to stop the run.  Then once they've loosened up the whole D, then CGY will start running down their throats.  I think that's the key to an easy CGY victory.

I think CGY will make a mistake by playing Jorden too much and he'll flounder just like he did in the '19 WSF.  He's a #3 read at best now.  They should let him go in the off-season.  And I still haven't found the answer to my question: Will Henry be back?  That would be huge.

BC will have to figure something out with Burnham still nicked, wearing a wrist contraption, Lucky likely out or playing severely injured, and Rourke likely nursing a Strevy-style foot (without the Strevie-style lionheart).  I'll give BC's best strategies some thought, because as of yet I really can't think of any way for them to win!

[Waffler]

The upper deck is open in BC. If they can fill that or close, that will help a lot. That was a tough place to win in the 80's when it was built and they'd sell out. Maybe BC will have the loudest fans or at least the loudest building like they used to. That would give them a boost. I also expect BC to show no quit, still thinking super close game by the end.

[TBURGESS]

I think Calgary shows off their running game and guts BC with it.

[Ridermania]

If BC cannot stop the run game, Calgary is heading to Winnipeg.

[3rdand1.5]

I'm thinking BC will be heavy on quick plays. In our game he got rid of the ball quickly but was off just slightly especially on the long attempts which was a big part of his game earlier on. I don't know how his foot will hold up but if he gets rid of the ball as quick as he showed against us and can get some of his deep accuracy back Cal. will be forced to defend that and BC does have one of the best backs in the league which they can then use and IMO they can beat Cal.

I think if BC/Rourke can't get the quick release and deep ball accuracy game going Cal. defence will take over.

As to Calgary, Meir has more film out now and has showed some weaknesses, I believe they have set up the run game and will use it, BC's defence is pretty good but they struggle a bit against a good RB. IMO BC will be looking for the quick scores, and Cal. will be looking to win TOP and grind them out.

Both teams play hard and I am looking for very physical game, we kinda beat up on BC last game so I'm sure they will be a little more surely this week. I know we are all sick of hearing Rourke, Rourke, Rourke, but I believe a potential BC win is all on his shoulders, I truly do not believe that BC is good enough to beat Cal. unless he plays like he did earlier in the season.

My prediction is Rourke surprises many and BC pulls out a win for the home crowd in their nice comfy dome.

[Lincoln Locomotive]

BC goes as Rourke goes.    A tall order after sitting on the shelf for half a season nursing a serious injury.    If his foot isn't 100% his throwing, especially deep balls will be affected as will his mobility.    If he can regain his early season form, which is a tall order, they have a chance.    It would be a minor miracle if he does and this will be his first playoff game ever.   If your a betting person....Calgary is a solid choice.   
If BC can pull off a W it would be quite a coup for Rourke.

[Nic16]

I think Calgary shows off their running game and guts BC with it.

I agree.

And unless Rourke was hiding his true mobility last game I think the Stamps front 7 will create too many issues for him to overcome.

[PurpleReign]

In the Playoffs running game is most important.  Calgary will unleash a heavy dose of running and control the clock, keeping the football away from Rourke.

[The Zipp]

In the Playoffs running game is most important.  Calgary will unleash a heavy dose of running and control the clock, keeping the football away from Rourke.

Over by halftime - Calgary wins

[GOLDMEMBER]

Over by halftime - Calgary wins

Wow Zippy no respect eh? 

[Jesse]

I don?t buy into Calgary the way everyone else seems to.

[BLUEBOMBER]

I pick Calgary to win the Grey Cup. They are built very well from coaching, offense, defense to special teams. Not much weakness to exploit. Their run game is pretty much unstoppable and they have a very capable QB.

[Waffler]

I don't think the Calgary run game means as much in the dome. I can see Calgary winning the time of possession and still be behind on the score board due to Rourke being able to strike quickly and pile up points. The dome favors deep passes since there is no wind to worry about. I don't think BC will ever be out of it. Campbell took Rourke out early last week precisely so he would be ready for this game.  Can't wait to see this one.

[Sec223]

A Calgary loss will probably free up more tickets and rooms for Grey Cup. Lots won't make the drive to Regina

[Go Big Blue]

Prediction: Rourke goes on a tear for the half and builds up enough of a lead for BC to win the game. He is pulled when his foot is re-injured and he can't heal fast enough to play in the western final. BC limps into Winnipeg  for a repeat of their last game of the regular season at IGF. All the BC receivers will be gun-shy, looking over their shoulders for the big hit that's coming from the Bombers secondary who will also have tight pass coverage with a few pick 6 interceptions thrown in. The offence will be healed, well rested and ready to light up the scoreboard. Then it's off to Regina for another shot at the Grey Cup the following weekend against the Argos.

Go Big Blue

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

I don't think the Calgary run game means as much in the dome. I can see Calgary winning the time of possession and still be behind on the score board due to Rourke being able to strike quickly and pile up points. The dome favors deep passes since there is no wind to worry about. I don't think BC will ever be out of it. Campbell took Rourke out early last week precisely so he would be ready for this game.  Can't wait to see this one.

There is a reason the CFL is known as a passing league, it's the easiest and quickest way to score points.  If a team relied solely on their running game without being able to complete longer passes, they would eat up the clock and run out of time trying to keep pace.  Not sure Maier has a good long game, the last couple of times I watched it looked like they were transitioning to a shorter passing game to compliment their running game.

[TecnoGenius]

Not sure Maier has a good long game, the last couple of times I watched it looked like they were transitioning to a shorter passing game to compliment their running game.

Thus full circle back to my original post: I think what you saw was a fake-out to fool BC into preparing for the wrong thing.  I think it's a ruse and CGY will be pass-heavy.  If Henry is back then I think they can pull it off.

On the other hand, BC's DBs are top-3 in league.  So it should be a fun fight no matter what happens.

[J5V]

Prediction: Rourke goes on a tear for the half and builds up enough of a lead for BC to win the game. He is pulled when his foot is re-injured and he can't heal fast enough to play in the western final.

I love it! LOL!

[ichabod_crane]

Looks like burnham is back for bc, lucky already ruled out for the semi.

[ModAdmin]

The key for a BC win is Nathan Rourke.  He has to be healthy, productive and mobile in order for BC to have any hope in winning this game.  If any of these three attributes are missing, Calgary will win.

[TecnoGenius]

Looks like burnham is back for bc, lucky already ruled out for the semi.

Is it time Lucky finds a new nickname?  Is this his 3rd non-trivial injury?  Love the dude, but he gets ragdolled like B.Banks out there sometimes.

The key for a BC win is Nathan Rourke.  He has to be healthy, productive and mobile in order for BC to have any hope in winning this game.  If any of these three attributes are missing, Calgary will win.

He was doing so well with reads and launch speed and accuracy I really do think Rourke can win without the mobility.  If I'm Campbell, I'm probably giving him strict instructions to not run past the LoS.  But he can't have any rust: rust like he had at IGF will mean BC gets creamed.

I can't remember a year I was looking towards the SF's more than this year.  It's going to be great games on both sides, and the winners are anyone's guess.

[jdrattops]

Thoughts on how the semi-final teams draw their game plans up?

I have a theory about CGY: I think they've been hiding their pass game a bit for several weeks now.  Maier isn't the best, but he's easily a 275Y QB in a playoff game with that team.  If you asked anyone right now what CGY will do, they'll all say "run the ball" with Carey/Logan and maybe Mills.  That's what Campbell in BC is saying in his pressers.  That's what TSN people were saying in the final week.

So I think CGY comes out pass-heavy and maybe doesn't even run the ball until they get close to the red zone on their first drive.  They'll send the message they are going to pass all game right when the BC DC has mostly prepared to stop the run.  Then once they've loosened up the whole D, then CGY will start running down their throats.  I think that's the key to an easy CGY victory.

I think CGY will make a mistake by playing Jorden too much and he'll flounder just like he did in the '19 WSF.  He's a #3 read at best now.  They should let him go in the off-season.  And I still haven't found the answer to my question: Will Henry be back?  That would be huge.

BC will have to figure something out with Burnham still nicked, wearing a wrist contraption, Lucky likely out or playing severely injured, and Rourke likely nursing a Strevy-style foot (without the Strevie-style lionheart).  I'll give BC's best strategies some thought, because as of yet I really can't think of any way for them to win!

I don't see Calgary coming out pass heavy, as their mantra for the year has been ball control and trying to chew up the clock.  It will be a problem for them if they have to get into the pass heavy game.  Maier is 98% short quick and accurate timing throws, and Calgary really doesn't use the run to open up the deep threats (especially if Henry is out).  I wouldn't consider Bagelton a deep threat either.  BC will try and stretch the field and pile on the points, if this happens Calgary may not have enough time with Maier to recover (will we see BLM again?). 

Here's how I see it TG:

Calgary plays ball control on offense and tries to wear down BC, 50-50 pass vs run, nickel and dime down the field.  On D they bring pressure and force Rourke to plant and throw early, which could be an issue for him with the injury.  The key of the game is the Calgary D stopping the 20+ yard plays and quick scores by BC.  If they force BC to methodically move down the field thus slowing down their offense, Calgary wins.  If it gets into a shootout, I don't see Maier having enough tools in his toolbox to win.  Calgary needs to run to win on Sunday and control the clock/flow of the game.

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

Thus full circle back to my original post: I think what you saw was a fake-out to fool BC into preparing for the wrong thing.  I think it's a ruse and CGY will be pass-heavy.  If Henry is back then I think they can pull it off.

On the other hand, BC's DBs are top-3 in league.  So it should be a fun fight no matter what happens.

Nah, it's going to be stop us if you can, they lost 6 games this year, 3 to Wpg., 2 to the Lions, and 1 to Hammy, the Stamps are well aware what they've done in the past hasn't been working in recent years, especially against the Bombers.

[TecnoGenius]

Good takes, jdrattops & TLB.  That clearly seems to be the consensus.  My only problem with that is a) it wouldn't present BC with a "curve ball", and b) it's what Campbell has stated they are preparing for, and c) it assumes CGY is a best-in-league team that can win with just straight-forward no-tricks.

Even if CGY can win against BC playing just like they have the last 4 weeks, I really don't think they are good enough to beat WPG that way.  So if they ball-control it with BC, they might be saving the big pass game for WPG.  It's a risky gamble, as they might not make it that far.

The depth charts are out and Henry is indeed in the lineup at WR.  Before you write off CGY deep pass mania, consider how Maier was throwing constant 50 yarders to Henry earlier in the year...

Also interesting is they benched Logan for Mills.  I think that's the best idea as Mills outplayed Logan.  However, Carey and Mills are similar backs.  Logan gave them a change of pace.  Can both backs get into a rhythm splitting the reps?

[J5V]

Good takes, jdrattops & TLB.  That clearly seems to be the consensus.  My only problem with that is a) it wouldn't present BC with a "curve ball", and b) it's what Campbell has stated they are preparing for, and c) it assumes CGY is a best-in-league team that can win with just straight-forward no-tricks.

Even if CGY can win against BC playing just like they have the last 4 weeks, I really don't think they are good enough to beat WPG that way.  So if they ball-control it with BC, they might be saving the big pass game for WPG.  It's a risky gamble, as they might not make it that far.

The depth charts are out and Henry is indeed in the lineup at WR.  Before you write off CGY deep pass mania, consider how Maier was throwing constant 50 yarders to Henry earlier in the year...

Also interesting is they benched Logan for Mills.  I think that's the best idea as Mills outplayed Logan.  However, Carey and Mills are similar backs.  Logan gave them a change of pace.  Can both backs get into a rhythm splitting the reps?

Yup, all good takes. Calgary has always known that they'll have to go through us to get to the promised land and I think they built their team and designed their approach with us in mind. I think they believe the way to beat Richie Hall's defense is with error-free football, a ball-control offense, and a heavy accent on running. They've got 3 guys that can deliver the mail and the O-line to get it done. Whether that will work on BC remains to be seen but BC has some worrisome issues with Rourke's foot and injuries to their O-line. I'm definitely pulling for the Leo's in this one as I think we have a much easier time with BC than we will with Calgary. I sense that BC is just happy to be in the playoffs whereas Calgary has their sights set squarely on the Blue and Gold.

To answer your question, yes I believe Calgary's backs can definitely get into a rhythm splitting reps. I think that's exactly what they're going to do. Those guys can grind it out and not knowing which one to key on is going to be a nightmare.

[pjrocksmb]

https://3downnation.com/2022/11/05/lions-lose-left-tackle-joel-figueroa-for-west-semi-final/

[TecnoGenius]

https://3downnation.com/2022/11/05/lions-lose-left-tackle-joel-figueroa-for-west-semi-final/

Ya, the depth chart already reflected that change.  Broxton/Norman are pretty good themselves.  And BC still keeps its 3-IMP OL concept intact.  I don't think it'll hurt their pass-pro, but it might hurt their run game a bit.

[TecnoGenius]

Not as much talk about the East:

With the depth charts out it's amazing how much better the MTL O looks on paper than HAM O.  MTL has real playmakers and gamebreakers.  E.Lewis might be a top-2 receiver in the CFL.  There are no clinkers at SB/WR in MTL.

HAM basically has T.White and maybe Dunbar.  That's it.

Hills has been super impressive.  Compare to Stanback who looked rusty and weak in his return from injury.  There might be a reason why MTL is dressing 3 RB.

HAM D looks better on paper, but not by much.  That LB corps there is solid and GC-experienced.

Let's not forget the intangible that propelled WPG to victory in '19... Hunger and heart.  I think HAM is hungry to get to the GC.  And I know their vets have heart.  MTL is a younger team with a (yes, refurbished) fresh HC.  I think MTL is very eager to win a playoff so they can improve on last year.  But I think they don't expect to be in the GC.

These games will be beat'em'up and who wins is anyone's guess.  I picked HAM, but it could go either way.  Evans could really, really stink up the joint.  (And if they put Schiltz in, it's game over.)  Then again, so could Trevor.  If HAM beats MTL, they have a shot against TOR.  If MTL wins, I think TOR wipes the floor with them.

So it's younger talent vs experience and heart.  Pays yer money and takes yer chances!

[Jesse]

Good takes, jdrattops & TLB.  That clearly seems to be the consensus.  My only problem with that is a) it wouldn't present BC with a "curve ball", and b) it's what Campbell has stated they are preparing for, and c) it assumes CGY is a best-in-league team that can win with just straight-forward no-tricks.

Even if CGY can win against BC playing just like they have the last 4 weeks, I really don't think they are good enough to beat WPG that way.  So if they ball-control it with BC, they might be saving the big pass game for WPG.  It's a risky gamble, as they might not make it that far.

The depth charts are out and Henry is indeed in the lineup at WR.  Before you write off CGY deep pass mania, consider how Maier was throwing constant 50 yarders to Henry earlier in the year...

Also interesting is they benched Logan for Mills.  I think that's the best idea as Mills outplayed Logan.  However, Carey and Mills are similar backs.  Logan gave them a change of pace.  Can both backs get into a rhythm splitting the reps?

Teams may practice certain plays as a curve ball, or even a scripted first drive, but they're not going to deviate from what they do best. That doesn't make much sense.

That said, in a Calgary win, Maier has to play a strong game.

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

Good takes, jdrattops & TLB.  That clearly seems to be the consensus.  My only problem with that is a) it wouldn't present BC with a "curve ball", and b) it's what Campbell has stated they are preparing for, and c) it assumes CGY is a best-in-league team that can win with just straight-forward no-tricks.

Even if CGY can win against BC playing just like they have the last 4 weeks, I really don't think they are good enough to beat WPG that way.  So if they ball-control it with BC, they might be saving the big pass game for WPG.  It's a risky gamble, as they might not make it that far.

The depth charts are out and Henry is indeed in the lineup at WR.  Before you write off CGY deep pass mania, consider how Maier was throwing constant 50 yarders to Henry earlier in the year...

Also interesting is they benched Logan for Mills.  I think that's the best idea as Mills outplayed Logan.  However, Carey and Mills are similar backs.  Logan gave them a change of pace.  Can both backs get into a rhythm splitting the reps?

I'm really surprised the Stamps are not dressing Logan for at least punt and kickoff returns, I was expecting a 3-headed monster, maybe he's injured.  They don't even list who will perform those duties on their depth chart, which IMO is calculated deception.

[TecnoGenius]

Teams may practice certain plays as a curve ball, or even a scripted first drive, but they're not going to deviate from what they do best. That doesn't make much sense.

That said, in a Calgary win, Maier has to play a strong game.

Oops, someone should have told that to Dickenson The Greater.  He sure deviated.  And in the end, it didn't make much sense.  And Maier didn't have a strong game.  So they lost.

That's the first (and probably only) time in my life I was rooting for BLM!  Super stoked when he came in the game and he and Henry lit it up.  Should have gone for that BLM TD instead of the FG.  Corner fade to Begel or Henry, not very hard guys!

[TecnoGenius]

I'm really surprised the Stamps are not dressing Logan for at least punt and kickoff returns, I was expecting a 3-headed monster, maybe he's injured.  They don't even list who will perform those duties on their depth chart, which IMO is calculated deception.

Maybe they figured they needed the DI on D.  Didn't help them at all.

They had Begelton and Philpot back there returning kicks.  Not sure how it's even legit not to declare a returner on the depth chart.

[J5V]

Super happy with the outcome of the games today but also totally shocked!

Montreal really has some mojo going on and it's always so great when Simoni is crushed after yet another heartbreaking loss.

Very happy for BC who refused to let Calgary end their season but Dickie, what were you thinking? LOL! Just awesome that it's going to be BC and Winnipeg deciding who wins the West. That is as it should be. They were the two best teams in the West/league and it should be a great game at IGF. I expect it to be LOUD at IGF on Sunday. Can't wait.

[GOLDMEMBER]

Super happy with the outcome of the games today but also totally shocked!

Montreal really has some mojo going on and it's always so great when Simoni is crushed after yet another heartbreaking loss.

Very happy for BC who refused to let Calgary end their season but Dickie, what were you thinking? LOL! Just awesome that it's going to be BC and Winnipeg deciding who wins the West. That is as it should be. They were the two best teams in the West/league and it should be a great game at IGF. I expect it to be LOUD at IGF on Sunday. Can't wait.

touche

[TecnoGenius]

Has there ever been another year where a healthy starting QB was pulled in both semi-final games?

[GOLDMEMBER]

Has there ever been another year where a healthy starting QB was pulled in both semi-final games?

In the CFL Highly likely

[Sec227]

In the CFL Highly likely

Ti cats have to seriously look at the QB position this off season. Evans himself lost the team games, and maybe the home play off date. He look so below average all year. Their back up looked good when he came in. Is Mitchell maybe the answer at QB? Cant see Evans doing any better in Rider Green. But maybe Shiltz should get a shot?

[3rdand1.5]

Ti cats have to seriously look at the QB position this off season. Evans himself lost the team games, and maybe the home play off date. He look so below average all year. Their back up looked good when he came in. Is Mitchell maybe the answer at QB? Cant see Evans doing any better in Rider Green. But maybe Shiltz should get a shot?

I think Hammy is still a good team, and I do think Orlando is a good coach. IMO Simoni is no longer worth the money, they could/should go cheaper at his position dump him and use it towards a new QB, if they can keep the core of receivers and O-line, BLM could do pretty good in Hammy, IMO.

Dane can look lights out, like he did against us in what was it week 15 but he is far too up and down, he was good in a two QB system but I don't believe he can be "the guy" without a great safety net behind him. I think even Fajardo in Ham, would have had them in a much better position

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

I think Hammy is still a good team, and I do think Orlando is a good coach. IMO Simoni is no longer worth the money, they could/should go cheaper at his position dump him and use it towards a new QB, if they can keep the core of receivers and O-line, BLM could do pretty good in Hammy, IMO.

Dane can look lights out, like he did against us in what was it week 15 but he is far too up and down, he was good in a two QB system but I don't believe he can be "the guy" without a great safety net behind him. I think even Fajardo in Ham, would have had them in a much better position

I'm with you on this one, Evans is prone to meltdowns and can't be relied on to perform consistently, maybe in 2-3 years he overcomes his flaws but the Ti-Cats can't stand pat and wait for that to happen.  Shiltz is more balanced but lacks great abilities, which makes him a good, but perennial #2.  BLM might be a great fit in Hamilton with Shiltz, they have good personnel but a few of their key players are getting long in the tooth.

[TBURGESS]

I could see BLM in Hamilton next year.

[Jesse]

I could see BLM in Hamilton next year.

Makes a lot of sense.

[Jesse]

Oops, someone should have told that to Dickenson The Greater.  He sure deviated.  And in the end, it didn't make much sense.  And Maier didn't have a strong game.  So they lost.

That's the first (and probably only) time in my life I was rooting for BLM!  Super stoked when he came in the game and he and Henry lit it up.  Should have gone for that BLM TD instead of the FG.  Corner fade to Begel or Henry, not very hard guys!

Yup. Failed miserably.

But they didn't have a shot with Maier playing so bad anyway.

[TecnoGenius]

Shiltz is more balanced but lacks great abilities, which makes him a good, but perennial #2.  BLM might be a great fit in Hamilton with Shiltz, they have good personnel but a few of their key players are getting long in the tooth.

Schiltz has no arm!  Did you see those 2 last hail mary's?  He barely chucked it 40 yards and he was giving it all he had!

In retrospect, HAM should have brought Evans back in for the hail mary's as he has a cannon and could reach the EZ easily.  I'm not sure HAM coaching staff had any desire to win that game.  Even normally-crying Orlando was stoic at the end.

[GOLDMEMBER]

Schiltz has no arm!  Did you see those 2 last hail mary's?  He barely chucked it 40 yards and he was giving it all he had!

In retrospect, HAM should have brought Evans back in for the hail mary's as he has a cannon and could reach the EZ easily.  I'm not sure HAM coaching staff had any desire to win that game.  Even normally-crying Orlando was stoic at the end.

Agreed I got not believe when he was putting everything he had in it and how short the ball fell. lol, I thought it was kinda funny actually.  whaw whaw