Rate your confidence in Leggs

[TecnoGenius]

Why don?t you analyze greater than 30 and less than 30.

Actually, I'd cut it off at 32 and under vs over-32.  32 PAT was chosen by the league for a reason.  Of course, we're asking others to do the work/math for us    I think Junkie did distance breakdowns in the past on older threads (maybe last year?).  Those types of stats always come up once our K starts costing us...

This year Winnipeg doesn?t appear to be as strong. Our team has struggled and let?s be honest we have been very lucky in a lot of games. Do you really believe we should be nine and one? This year is not going to be easy. It?s a team effort. Teams will get stronger week by week. Our weaknesses will be flushed out very easily. Don?t blame the kicking game.

Hmm.  Good question.  I actually say "yes"!  Because in ever case we found a way to win.  Maybe we got 1 sheer-luck win, just like MTL just did to us?  And the MTL game should have been won putting us 10-0.

I'd liken us to HAM vs TOR, BC vs CGY, and SSK vs EDM this week.  TOR was looking very good, CGY was winning bigly, and EDM was doing very well.  Then the winning teams found a way to win.  You could see it on the field in every case.  The team that may have still been ahead started deflating.

HAM, BC and SSK found it in themselves to win.  No real luck involved.  We are the epitome of that find-the-win team this year.  That's all we do.  And we do it because everyone from top to bottom expects to.

We'll see how the boys respond after the bye.  It will be a great, challenging, test.

[TecnoGenius]

Hey, how about going for it more on 3rd down.  Did you see what BC did?  Holy smokes.  They started going 3 down even with 5 minutes left.  Ya sure, they were down 2 scores at least for some of the gambles.  But they put all their confidence in the O and it paid off.

That first 3rd down gamble mid-pass to Burnham basically won the game.  It eviscerated CGY's morale.  CGY didn't do squat after that on O, D (with only one lucky score on ST).

If I was MOS in our last game, I'm leaving the O out on 3rd and 5 or whatever in OT when we already knew Leggs' headspace was gone.  Say to Zach and his weapons that we know they have this.  Go out with a bang rather than a doink.

Campbell left his O out there and sent a message to the league: one that everyone heard.  I think all CFL fans would agree right now that BC is hands down the best O, and maybe the best team.  It's an unstoppable runaway train.  Just our luck we get them 2 more times... those games will determine the West.  We're the only ones that can shut them down.

[gordo]

The Bombers don't win the 2021 G.C. without Castillo going 5/5.  How happy are you with O'Shea now if he rolled into that game with Leggs having to match that output?  Now imagine the dark future.... 

O'Shea can't do anything for Leggs except give him the time and opportunity to improve his worth, he throws his players  off the dock and they either sink or swim, his entire mantra is based on self-initiative and accountability to team-mates.  If you think he's down there coaching him up on the art of kicking, you're out-to-lunch.

Good kicker is huge in playoffs. Chance to win 3 consecutive Grey Cups is a generational opportunity.  Leggs is our Achilles.

[Blue In BC]

Love it, seen that movie play out on the forum 3 years ago.  2 cups later, patience paid off.Exactly, off topic but one of our receivers are the backup kicker can't recall who, cjob had a story about this few games ago, anyone recall?

Having to use Ellingson might be something needed to do in game because of an injury. It doesn't fall into the category of a solution per se.

[Blue In BC]

To be fair, we need to include 1-pt converts:

* Whyte is 14/16 on FGs, and 31/32 on 1-pt converts. That is 45/48 = 93.75%
* Leggs is 19/23 on FGs, and 20/24 on 1-pt converts. That is 39/47 = 82.98%

I'd say that ~10% is a pretty sizable difference; I haven't done the math but within a single game I'd estimate that works out to 2 or 3 points, on average.

If we look other kickers around the league, I've sorted them by overall successful kicking rate and included BC and Wpg:

* Seth Small (HAM) - 12/13 FGs, 9/9 1-pt converts. Total = 21/22 = 95.4%
* Rene Paredes (CGY) - 28/31 FGs, 21/21 1-pt converts. Total = 49/52 = 94.2%
* Sean Whyte (BC) - 14/16 FGs, 31/32 1-pt converts. Total = 45/48 = 93.75%
* David Cote (MTL) - 22/27 FGs, 17/17 1-pt converts. Total = 39/44 = 88.6%
* Lewis Ward (OTT) - 20/24 FGs, 9/10 1-pt converts. Total = 29/34 = 85.3%
* Boris Bede (TOR) - 21/26 FGs, 12/13 1-pt converts. Total = 33/39 = 84.6%
* Brett Lauther (SSK) - 24/28 FGs, 11/13 1-pt converts. Total = 35/42 = 83.3%
* Leggs (WPG) - 19/23 FGs, 20/24 on 1-pt converts. Total = 39/47 = 83.0%
* Sergio Castillo (EDM) - 21/26 FGs, 8/10 1-pt converts. Total = 29/36 = 80.6%
* Michael Domagala (HAM) - 12/16 FGs, 4/5 1-pt converts. Total = 16/21 = 76.2%

I think it's hard to look at these numbers and not have some concerns (if you combine HAM's two kickers, their combined success rate is 86.0% meaning that as a team, Wpg has the second-lowest kicking success rate in the league).

Source: https://www.cfl.ca/stats/?stat_category=field_goals&season=2022 (Date accessed: Aug 14, 2022)

Nice work on the stats check. There are so many questions in these sorts of raw fact though. The missed converts might be the most telling issue. FG's are a different story in that we'd have to access the distance of any miss by each kicker. Wind or weather might have been factors in some instances.

Is the trend improving or getting worse as the season progresses? 

I only remember 2 of the missed converts early in the season. I have all the games on PVR but probably won't re-watch them again until the post season. I have re-watched each game once after live game time.

The 7 kickers above Liegghio have only missed on converts 5 times.

Cumulatively the Bombers have have played 10 games while other teams are cumulatively 12 games less. A couple teams have played 8 games and some only 9. Since we missed 2 FG's in game 10, that doesn't skew in our favour particularly well. It is still factual. Just wanted to point that out.

[Lincoln Locomotive]

To be fair, we need to include 1-pt converts:

* Whyte is 14/16 on FGs, and 31/32 on 1-pt converts. That is 45/48 = 93.75%
* Leggs is 19/23 on FGs, and 20/24 on 1-pt converts. That is 39/47 = 82.98%

I'd say that ~10% is a pretty sizable difference; I haven't done the math but within a single game I'd estimate that works out to 2 or 3 points, on average.

If we look other kickers around the league, I've sorted them by overall successful kicking rate and included BC and Wpg:

* Seth Small (HAM) - 12/13 FGs, 9/9 1-pt converts. Total = 21/22 = 95.4%
* Rene Paredes (CGY) - 28/31 FGs, 21/21 1-pt converts. Total = 49/52 = 94.2%
* Sean Whyte (BC) - 14/16 FGs, 31/32 1-pt converts. Total = 45/48 = 93.75%
* David Cote (MTL) - 22/27 FGs, 17/17 1-pt converts. Total = 39/44 = 88.6%
* Lewis Ward (OTT) - 20/24 FGs, 9/10 1-pt converts. Total = 29/34 = 85.3%
* Boris Bede (TOR) - 21/26 FGs, 12/13 1-pt converts. Total = 33/39 = 84.6%
* Brett Lauther (SSK) - 24/28 FGs, 11/13 1-pt converts. Total = 35/42 = 83.3%
* Leggs (WPG) - 19/23 FGs, 20/24 on 1-pt converts. Total = 39/47 = 83.0%
* Sergio Castillo (EDM) - 21/26 FGs, 8/10 1-pt converts. Total = 29/36 = 80.6%
* Michael Domagala (HAM) - 12/16 FGs, 4/5 1-pt converts. Total = 16/21 = 76.2%

I think it's hard to look at these numbers and not have some concerns (if you combine HAM's two kickers, their combined success rate is 86.0% meaning that as a team, Wpg has the second-lowest kicking success rate in the league).

Source: https://www.cfl.ca/stats/?stat_category=field_goals&season=2022 (Date accessed: Aug 14, 2022)

Great job on the stats and comparisons and thank you.....yes we are near the bottom of the league in the s this stat category and it finally came back to bite us in the a$$ (posterior).   Legghio has been punting the ball very well and that's been his saving grace.    He makes that game winner from the 32 and he's near the top 5 and we aren't having this convo!   Unfortunately he missed AGAIN in OT and his average really hit the skids and whatever goodwill he built up with Bomber fans during the season, was obliterated.   And that's where the "what have you done for us lately" mentality is such a significant part of professional sports.    It's often brutally unfair at times however that's the reality for kickers because when the game is riding on your toe....you're in the spotlight.   Missing the second one, even if he hit the post, puts and exclamation point on season to date!

[theaardvark]

Again, don't want to harp on it, but Paul McCallum's rookie year he 40/57 including 0/1 in the WSH and 1/3 in the WF (overtime loss), inducing a manure incident.  73% in year one, and repeated that 73% in year 2... and since, he's been 80%+ every year, and over 90% sometimes...

Leggs has had one bad kick, and one unlucky post, which just happened to happen at inopportune times in a game where we were hoping to go 10-0.  9 of the 10 previous games he had been perfect in FGA's. 

But yeah, time to airlift in a new kicker...

Yeesh.

It is so easy to attack a kicker... so many other factors happened in that game that should have made that last FG icing on a cake, not the deciding factor.  DB's missing coverages, OL missing blocks, QB fumble, coverage lapses on returns.  But lets crap on the sophomore kicker... who is doing all three duties as a Nat on an ELC.... if for nothing else, that should make him a favourite in Winnipeg, he's doing three jobs, cheap. 

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

Again, don't want to harp on it, but Paul McCallum's rookie year he 40/57 including 0/1 in the WSH and 1/3 in the WF (overtime loss), inducing a manure incident.  73% in year one, and repeated that 73% in year 2... and since, he's been 80%+ every year, and over 90% sometimes...

Leggs has had one bad kick, and one unlucky post, which just happened to happen at inopportune times in a game where we were hoping to go 10-0.  9 of the 10 previous games he had been perfect in FGA's. 

But yeah, time to airlift in a new kicker...

Yeesh.

It is so easy to attack a kicker... so many other factors happened in that game that should have made that last FG icing on a cake, not the deciding factor.  DB's missing coverages, OL missing blocks, QB fumble, coverage lapses on returns.  But lets crap on the sophomore kicker... who is doing all three duties as a Nat on an ELC.... if for nothing else, that should make him a favourite in Winnipeg, he's doing three jobs, cheap. 

No one is criticizing his punting or kickoff ability, he can keep that job.  It is F.G.'s and converts he is struggling with because of the added mental pressure of altering the outcome of the entire game with one poorly executed kick.  If you can't take the heat, don't sign up for that job.

[Sir Blue and Gold]

No one is criticizing his punting or kickoff ability, he can keep that job.  It is F.G.'s and converts he is struggling with because of the added mental pressure of altering the outcome of the entire game with one poorly executed kick.  If you can't take the heat, don't sign up for that job.

That's what we said to Rene Parades. Then Calgary signed him and worked with him.

[theaardvark]

No one is criticizing his punting or kickoff ability, he can keep that job.  It is F.G.'s and converts he is struggling with because of the added mental pressure of altering the outcome of the entire game with one poorly executed kick.  If you can't take the heat, don't sign up for that job.

140       1    -       N/A    (00:33) Timeout Ottawa    17    16
141       2    7    O18    Rush          (00:33) B. OLIVEIRA Run (1 yds), Tackle: D. COLEMAN    17    16
142       3    6    O17    Field Goal    (00:27) M. LIEGGHIO Field Goal Attempt (25 yds), Good    17    19
143       -    -    W30    Kickoff    (00:06) M. LIEGGHIO Kickoff (61 yds), Returned by T. WILLIAMS from O19 (13 yds), Special Teams Tackle: T. FORD    17    19
144       1    10    O32    Pass            (00:01) J. MASOLI Completed Pass to J. ACKLIN, caught at O41 (29 yds, 20 YAC), Lateral to N. BEHAR (7 yds), N. BEHAR Fumble, Lost, Recovered by                              W. ROSE at W42 (0 yds), Tackle: S. JOHNSON    17    19

Hmmmm... first game of the season, :27 left, Liegghio makes a 25 yard FG to win the game...  I guess it wasn't as hot that night...

[Pigskin]

I am sticking with the kid for now. Young players take a little time to grow and settle into there position. How many people where done with BO20 a few weeks ago?

[blue_gold_84]

That's what we said to Rene Parades. Then Calgary signed him and worked with him.

This. Or even Hajrullahu after his rocky sophomore season, who's also gone on to have a pretty solid career.

Liegghio had a rough night on Thursday but one lousy game doesn't justify kicking him to the curb (no pun intended). It's unfortunate he shanked the potential game winner but the fact the team was even in that position late in what should've been a convincing home win falls at the feet of more than one player.

I won't make excuses for his two misses but there's plenty of blame to go around for that loss, IMO.

[Waffler]

That's what we said to Rene Parades. Then Calgary signed him and worked with him.

I went to training camp almost daily the year Parades was here and the fact is that he got beat out pretty cleanly by Palardy. You could see he had potential, too much to stick on the practice squad. So Calgary picked him up and it worked out but at the time NO ONE would have bet the farm on it. In fact, his first couple games were pretty shaky and he finished the year kicking 77.8 %

Just really tired of the Parades name coming up every time we miss one. But yes, your point of working with talent is correct Sir.

[gordo]

Again, don't want to harp on it, but Paul McCallum's rookie year he 40/57 including 0/1 in the WSH and 1/3 in the WF (overtime loss), inducing a manure incident.  73% in year one, and repeated that 73% in year 2... and since, he's been 80%+ every year, and over 90% sometimes...

Leggs has had one bad kick, and one unlucky post, which just happened to happen at inopportune times in a game where we were hoping to go 10-0.  9 of the 10 previous games he had been perfect in FGA's. 

But yeah, time to airlift in a new kicker...

Yeesh.

It is so easy to attack a kicker... so many other factors happened in that game that should have made that last FG icing on a cake, not the deciding factor.  DB's missing coverages, OL missing blocks, QB fumble, coverage lapses on returns.  But lets crap on the sophomore kicker... who is doing all three duties as a Nat on an ELC.... if for nothing else, that should make him a favourite in Winnipeg, he's doing three jobs, cheap. 

Yup let?s not airlift in a new kicker and risk key points in a close western final or grey cup. Maybe even another missed convert to lose by a single.  Because hey, it will be great experience for Legg?s development. And that is the priority is it not?

Or let?s just put extra pressure on the offence to outscore the other team by enough to compensate for our developing kicker?s misses in a season we are a Grey Cup favorite. 

Bottom line - we have a 3-peat Grey Cup team. Let?s not F it up developing a kicker into the playoffs.

[Blue In BC]

Yup let?s not airlift in a new kicker and risk key points in a close western final or grey cup. Maybe even another missed convert to lose by a single.  Because hey, it will be great experience for Legg?s development. And that is the priority is it not?

Or let?s just put extra pressure on the offence to outscore the other team by enough to compensate for our developing kicker?s misses in a season we are a Grey Cup favorite. 

Bottom line - we have a 3-peat Grey Cup team. Let?s not F it up developing a kicker into the playoffs.

How do you know a new kicker will be better until he plays in a multitude of games?

In 2021 we airlifted Crapigna and Mourtada. How did that work out?

Chances are any new kicker is going to be a rookie that may have looked good in college. That doesn't always translate into the pro leagues.