USFL 2022??

[famicommander]

Dead on arrival.

17,500 in the building, 40,000 tickets distributed (not sold; most were given away for free)

Probably about 1,000, maybe less, for game 2.

The TV ratings are even more dire
USFL 2022 game 1 TV ratings: 0.4 rating, 2.93M viewers (Fox and NBC combined)
XFL 2020 game 1 TV ratings: 1.0, 3.30M viewers (didn't complete the season)
AAF 2019 game 1 TV ratings: 0.9, 3.25M viewers (didn't complete the season)

The total viewership doesn't look TOO horrible but you have to remember that this was the first game broadcast on two major networks at the same time since Super Bowl 1.

But the 0.4 rating number? That's catastrophic. The ratings are the numbers that the advertisers pay for. Coming in at under half the mark set by two leagues that didn't even manage to finish their first respective seasons is unspeakably bad.

The numbers are only going to go down from here. There won't be any more simulcasts and several games will be on cable or streaming.

This is a one and done league, and that's assuming they even complete the season.

EDIT:
for perspective, there were CFL playoff games on cable TV in the US last year that pulled a 0.1.

The USFL premiere did a 0.2 on Fox and a 0.2 on NBC for a combined 0.4.

[Blue In BC]

Game 2 was not as interesting as game 1. Looked more like a pre-season game where teams have not yet developed chemistry and being familiar with the play book. No idea which of the 8 teams is projected to be the better teams of the 8 teams.

A few good plays, a few bad plays and a few inept plays. Timing off, wet football account for some of that.

The bigger issue: Were there more than 100 fans in the stands? YIKES!!! The last two games are on subscription networks so I won't be able to see what happens there but that's not a good start for the 1st weekend.

[famicommander]

Nobody showed up to game 3 either, and game 4 was canceled due to weather.

Definitely nothing to worry about for CFL fans from this clown shoes operation.

[Blue In BC]

Nobody showed up to game 3 either, and game 4 was canceled due to weather.

Definitely nothing to worry about for CFL fans from this clown shoes operation.

If that's all they accomplished in week 1 then they may not survive the season. Too bad for the players that work so hard.

[theaardvark]

All the players are getting paid, and all are getting the opportunity to get on NFL or even CFL radar with the exposure.  The play calling and D might make a vanilla pudding seem like a flavour explosion, but still, there have been flashes of interesting play. 

Haven't really seem any of the rules make a difference, nice to see actual kickoffs though. 

The drones are annoying, and the helmet cams even worse.  Both need some heavy duty image stabilization to make them even watchable. 

Might be the best thing for the players if the league folds just before CFL training camp   There have been a couple players I wouldn't mind getting a look at on the wide field.

I think I;d be betting the under on the season lasting 5 games... FOXsports needed this to be a homerun, even with all the partners it is spreading the risk over.  I can't see FUBO getting any subscriptions from this, and if anything, NBC has an incentive to use whatever loopholes they have to get out of this and leave FOX holding this big bag of doo doo.

[Jesse]

I still don't understand how this keeps being tried.

[theaardvark]

I still don't understand how this keeps being tried.

There is the NFL, NCAA and there are regional semi-pro leagues... finding a sweet spot post NCAA and under NFL but more than Semipro is that brass ring people / networks are willing to invest in to try and capture lighting in a bottle, and on a small investment, reap huge rewards. 

Problem is, no gate, no name recognition, gambling that might actually be worse than roulette, and a quality of talent/play/coaching (not because the coaches are bad, but rather they have no time to coach up players into their systems), this just does not have the capacity to get to a sustainable level of watchable product.  FOX will hemorrhage money into this league for a while, but how long until the writing is on the wall?  FOX has the ideal viewership for this product (although there should have been more teams based south of the Mason / Dixon) but even FOX knows when to pull the plug.  I can't see them getting to the playoffs even...

Getting a crowd in the stands would make a huge difference, if they found a way to promote that and get at least one side of the stadium papered up with fans to get some excitement that might get infectious to the viewers, they might have a chance... give away TShirts or Shiseys of the teams playing in each game with each ticket, sell family packs that include food, shirts and foam fingers and such, it might not be a gate driven league, but fans in the stands are part of the production value.  If you aren't putting fans in the stands, eliminate them completely.  Focus on the on-field, and eliminate the eyesore of a 90% empty stadium.

[Blue In BC]

There is the NFL, NCAA and there are regional semi-pro leagues... finding a sweet spot post NCAA and under NFL but more than Semipro is that brass ring people / networks are willing to invest in to try and capture lighting in a bottle, and on a small investment, reap huge rewards. 

Problem is, no gate, no name recognition, gambling that might actually be worse than roulette, and a quality of talent/play/coaching (not because the coaches are bad, but rather they have no time to coach up players into their systems), this just does not have the capacity to get to a sustainable level of watchable product.  FOX will hemorrhage money into this league for a while, but how long until the writing is on the wall?  FOX has the ideal viewership for this product (although there should have been more teams based south of the Mason / Dixon) but even FOX knows when to pull the plug.  I can't see them getting to the playoffs even...

Getting a crowd in the stands would make a huge difference, if they found a way to promote that and get at least one side of the stadium papered up with fans to get some excitement that might get infectious to the viewers, they might have a chance... give away TShirts or Shiseys of the teams playing in each game with each ticket, sell family packs that include food, shirts and foam fingers and such, it might not be a gate driven league, but fans in the stands are part of the production value.  If you aren't putting fans in the stands, eliminate them completely.  Focus on the on-field, and eliminate the eyesore of a 90% empty stadium.

We'll see what attendance looks like for next week and possibly the 3rd week.  If it doesn't approve quickly I can see the potential to not finish the season.  Couldn't find any actual attendance for the other games played yesterday. Don't have access to the game re-scheduled for today so that's another test.

I understand the games being somewhat vanilla as a new league, rosters and no re-season games. That's only a small issue. It all comes down to the ability to generate some revenue. I found it stunning to see nobody in the stands for the 2nd game for the 1st week of games. Horrible indication to start.

Some of the players looked like they could have a future somewhere. OTOH it's a little like watching US college games. Sometimes it's more a matter of unequal competition making some look better than they actual are.

[theaardvark]

With only one possible "home team" ever building a "Home" crowd, gate is going to be a non starter. 

I think by week three, opening the stadium to fans will be a net loss, and that part of the league should be abandoned until they actually have "home games" in the cities the teams are "from".

Will the teams build some cohesion and confidence as they go forward, or will it get worse?  No idea where these teams are housed and or are practicing, what kind of facilities they have, where the players are bunking (there is a reference to the league providing hotels at $75/night with the option for 2 players to share), but still, that's about 500 players, and 100 support staff all in one city, needing at least 4 practice facilities (if they share 50/50).  There is a lot of infrastructure that needs to be managed, things going on that are going to be huge distractions as compared to a mature, professionally run league.  A Div 1 college team probably has more invested in practice facilities and support staff than this entire league. 

They are going to get marginally better as time goes by, just through repetition and familiarity, but are they going to get "good"?  Are we going to see consistent play that includes both running and passing?  It seems they are falling back to ground and pound as soon as anything goes wrong, which you can do in 4 down ball...

[Blue In BC]

I think players are essentially in a type of bubble. Everybody is housed in hotels around the city and use multiple fields to practice. I suppose they might use high school / college fields for example. Since nobody has to fly to games, the non football costs are reduced quite a bit. No time zones to deal with either.

Bad weather on a given weekend can really mess up game scheduling though.

[theaardvark]

I think players are essentially in a type of bubble. Everybody is housed in hotels around the city and use multiple fields to practice. I suppose they might use high school / college fields for example. Since nobody has to fly to games, the non football costs are reduced quite a bit. No time zones to deal with either.

Bad weather on a given weekend can really mess up game scheduling though.

A bubble, eh?  Never even occured to me that we haven't heard boo about COVID testing or protocols for the USFL.  Biden is providing free RAT's to anyone who asks, betting that's the extent of their COVID protocols...

[Blue In BC]

A bubble, eh?  Never even occured to me that we haven't heard boo about COVID testing or protocols for the USFL.  Biden is providing free RAT's to anyone who asks, betting that's the extent of their COVID protocols...

Not a covid bubble. It's just a bubble because every team is based in Birmingham. Nobody has to fly back to anywhere on a weekly basis. I see this morning one player was released due to breaking some team rules but don't know if that was covid related or not.

Roster costs, coaches costs and living expenses ( food and hotel ) are going to add up quickly. It's possible players have to pay their own living costs. I'd be curious to see the projections of team costs against revenues ( we won't see it ). 

[theaardvark]

Not a covid bubble. It's just a bubble because every team is based in Birmingham. Nobody has to fly back to anywhere on a weekly basis. I see this morning one player was released due to breaking some team rules but don't know if that was covid related or not.

Roster costs, coaches costs and living expenses ( food and hotel ) are going to add up quickly. It's possible players have to pay their own living costs. I'd be curious to see the projections of team costs against revenues ( we won't see it ). 

With the entire league owned by one entity, and all playing out of one facility, with the players all paid out of one pool, there are no "team" costs.  No chance the "Gamblers" go bankrupt, its all or nothing.  FOX sports holds the pursestrings and is the biggest client for the product, so it will be easy for them to decide either way, either "run at a loss" or pull the plug, whichever decision is made, FOX is the biggest one affected.


Yes, players are 100% responsible for their expenses, but are guaranteed hotel rooms at $75/night with an option to share that with another player.  But they all are eligible for tuition free education... https://xflnewshub.com/alt-football/pr-usfl-to-provide-players-staff-tuition-free-debt-free-college-degree-program/ 

[Blue In BC]

I know the league is owned by one entity. Team / player costs $75 / night add up whether players share a room or not. That's about $5000 per player for the 10 weeks more or less. It will add about $2M to running the league above roster and coaching costs. Air fare bringing players to Birmingham and then leaving at the end of the season etc.

Team costs are the off field costs I was referring too.

Overall the total cost could be in the $5M - $6M per team X 8 = $40M = $48M operating costs for the league. The question still remains how much of a loss is the " entity " willing to take in the 1st season?

[theaardvark]

I know the league is owned by one entity. Team / player costs $75 / night add up whether players share a room or not. That's about $5000 per player for the 10 weeks more or less. It will add about $2M to running the league above roster and coaching costs. Air fare bringing players to Birmingham and then leaving at the end of the season etc.

Team costs are the off field costs I was referring too.

Overall the total cost could be in the $5M - $6M per team X 8 = $40M = $48M operating costs for the league. The question still remains how much of a loss is the " entity " willing to take in the 1st season?

The $5000 per player housing cost comes out of the $45k they pay each player, no need to double count it...  nevertheless, yes, the league is going to cost much more than your high estimate of $48 mil.  I'd peg it closer to $60-80 mil and maybe more depending on stadium costs, broadcasting infrastructure (they have more cameras and tech than the NFL).  FOX is footing the entire bill, and getting some back from broadcasting partners, but I can most of that being performance based compensation dependent on measurables.  Which, so far, have been cringe worthy.

The fact that FOX has committed $150-200 mil over 3 years to the league puts the annual budget at $50-66 million, taking into account zero revenue.  If they anticipated even a small revenue generation, that would put the projected costs at $60-80 mil.  Which about jives.

How long does FOX feed the league?  How badly does it need the content?  How quickly will partners abandon the league, and it becomes 100% FOX broadcasted?  Are 45 3 hour broadcasts worth $60 million?  Can they generate $1.333 million per broadcast?  Because there is no value in rebroadcasts, or much ancillary revenue when home teams are never in their hoime city...