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Question: Will the CFL survive in it's current form?
yes - 16 (53.3%)
no - 9 (30%)
Maybe - 5 (16.7%)
Total Voters: 30

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Author Topic: Will the CFL survive in it's current form?  (Read 18590 times)
the paw
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2020, 04:53:31 PM »

I'm not sure the business model will or even should change. It mostly works during normal times. Businesses don't need their plan to work in pandemic years that come about a hundred years apart.

The CFL needs to continue revenue diversification.  Whether CFL 2.0 is  the best way to do that is an open question, but if we don't see some way to rely less on the gate and more on new revenues like streaming, it can't last.  Right now, teams can break even or make a modest profit on $25-$30 million per year in revenues.  But with gate attendance falling off in many major sports, including the CFL, this is an urgent matter.

I don't know if the private owners have as much success in raising sponsorship dollars.  It is a significant revenue source for the community owned teams.  I presume it is a lot easier to talk a local business into a sponsorship for a community team than it is to have them improve the bottom line for David Braley, but I don't know that for a fact.  

Some sort of revenue sharing seems logical, but it would mean more transparency and less Hollywood accounting from the private owners.  Maybe a national sponsorship program that shares revenue would be helpful.  I can't see teams sharing gate revenue.  
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grab grass 'n growl
blue_gold_84
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For The W


« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2020, 05:14:03 PM »

I'm not sure the business model will or even should change. It mostly works during normal times. Businesses don't need their plan to work in pandemic years that come about a hundred years apart.

The CFL lost $20M in 2019. How is that "mostly working" during normal times?
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#forthew

Slava Ukraini!
Blue In BC
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« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2020, 05:21:27 PM »

The CFL lost $20M in 2019. How is that "mostly working" during normal times?

I've heard that report but I'd like to know a lot more about how that broke down. The league carried the Als for all or most of 2019. I don't know if the new owners paid any sort of franchise fee to offset that fact.

Even with that I find it hard to believe the $20M figure without more explanation.
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blue_gold_84
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« Reply #18 on: August 18, 2020, 05:29:23 PM »

I've heard that report but I'd like to know a lot more about how that broke down. The league carried the Als for all or most of 2019. I don't know if the new owners paid any sort of franchise fee to offset that fact.

Even with that I find it hard to believe the $20M figure without more explanation.

This is true. I'd also like to know what its gains and losses were for previous years to get a clearer picture on its profitability.

Needless to say, I'm not sure how well its business model works during normal times. There just isn't enough transparency from the CFL to get a objective view, IMO.
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#forthew

Slava Ukraini!
DM83
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« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2020, 05:45:33 PM »

Does anyone believe some of these clubs don't know what their "business" model is?
The. Montreal situation of losing $20 million is in my opinion unbelieveable.

How are they still,operating?
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #20 on: August 18, 2020, 05:50:17 PM »

What's clear is that attendance is down for a multitude of reasons. I'd expect that trend to continue and be even more apparent in 2021.

Not just because of the previous trending. Covid uncertainty and the financial recovery period for many fans around the country. There is going to be hardship for many people for quite a while.

IMO I think in some of the bigger markets the marketing isn't helping their cases. BC is the perfect example. A stadium that seats 55K and can only get 25K on a good day.

To some degree they've over priced their tickets. We'd have to see the books but are less fans better than more fans at the same net revenue? Financially you might say that works but take a deeper dive.

More fans in the stands are building the fan base for the future. Advertisers will are always going to want to reach more people than less people.

40K - 50K in BC Place is better than 20K even if it generates the same revenue IMO. However IMO a different ticket cost structure would increase revenue.

BC seemed to think that by closing the upper level seating to reduce capacity improved the supply / demand and desire for tickets at higher prices. That proved to be false.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2020, 05:52:07 PM by Blue In BC » Logged

2019 Grey Cup Champions
the paw
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« Reply #21 on: August 18, 2020, 06:15:05 PM »

I've heard that report but I'd like to know a lot more about how that broke down. The league carried the Als for all or most of 2019. I don't know if the new owners paid any sort of franchise fee to offset that fact.

Even with that I find it hard to believe the $20M figure without more explanation.

Each team paid over $600k to the league to repay the 2018 losses that the CFL absorbed. That would show on each teams books for 2019. So that is a little under $5 million of the $20 m.

That means the 6 private teams lost a total of about $15 m, or about $2.5 million each.  When teams like the Argos and Lions fire head coaches, they may be incurring some of that loss rather than using their mulligan. 

Bombers averaged $1.2m - $1.3 million per game on average attendance of 26,000+, and they broke even.  BC and Montreal had about 65% of the attendance figures, which means each of those teams probably lost about $3.8 million.  Argos only had attendance at 50% so they probably lost $5.6 million.  Those three teams (with worst attendance) add up to $13 million. 

So, $13 million for poor attendance, $5 million for Alouettes fiasco, and you are basically there. 

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grab grass 'n growl
TBURGESS
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« Reply #22 on: August 18, 2020, 06:19:57 PM »

Some teams make money. Some teams lose money. Some teams only make money when the team is realistically in the hunt for the Grey Cup. IMO that's mostly working in normal times as it's remained mostly viable for 100 years or more.

I'm not sure I believe the 20 Mil loss is real money because no one has come out and said exactly how they got to that number. In any case, 2019 is the first year that I've heard that the CFL was losing that much money.

It's great to say that the CFL has to move away from reliance on gate revenues, but the question is how? (I don't have the answers, just a bunch of questions)

Costs:  
Reduce the SMS? Would the CFLPA be on board?
Cap the players salaries? Would either the CFLPA or the owners be on board?
Cap the coaches and other staff salaries? CFLPA would be on board, but would the coaches or owners go for it?
Reduce the number of players per team? Would any of the CFLPA, the owners or coaches be on board? How many would you have to reduce it to make 20 mill of difference anyway?

Revenues:
TSN pays the most, would they be willing to pay even more or would the fill the air time with cheaper alternatives?
Advertisers pay more for more eyes, so you need to increase the number of people who watch. How?
CFL 2.0? Maybe in a decade or two if it works.
Revenue sharing? It's hard enough trying to get owners without telling them if you do well, you'll have to share your profits and if you don't, you'll get money from the other owners. It's the opposite of fostering a competitive environment that sports relies on.  
Analyze more fans at less per ticket vs less fans at more per ticket. (Likely already has been done.)

Rules:
Reduce or remove the number required NI's? Less NI's = Less competition for their services = Less pay per player. More imports = Less cost than NI's due to supply. How many less eyes on the product with less NI's considering that more Imp's = better football?
Go to NFL rules? Some think this would work better and would allow for a US TV contract. The CFL is already a feeder league for the NFL.
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #23 on: August 18, 2020, 06:42:00 PM »

Each team paid over $600k to the league to repay the 2018 losses that the CFL absorbed. That would show on each teams books for 2019. So that is a little under $5 million of the $20 m.

That means the 6 private teams lost a total of about $15 m, or about $2.5 million each.  When teams like the Argos and Lions fire head coaches, they may be incurring some of that loss rather than using their mulligan. 

Bombers averaged $1.2m - $1.3 million per game on average attendance of 26,000+, and they broke even.  BC and Montreal had about 65% of the attendance figures, which means each of those teams probably lost about $3.8 million.  Argos only had attendance at 50% so they probably lost $5.6 million.  Those three teams (with worst attendance) add up to $13 million. 

So, $13 million for poor attendance, $5 million for Alouettes fiasco, and you are basically there. 



Thanks. That's good information.
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2019 Grey Cup Champions
Blue In BC
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« Reply #24 on: August 18, 2020, 06:45:46 PM »

Some teams make money. Some teams lose money. Some teams only make money when the team is realistically in the hunt for the Grey Cup. IMO that's mostly working in normal times as it's remained mostly viable for 100 years or more.

I'm not sure I believe the 20 Mil loss is real money because no one has come out and said exactly how they got to that number. In any case, 2019 is the first year that I've heard that the CFL was losing that much money.

It's great to say that the CFL has to move away from reliance on gate revenues, but the question is how? (I don't have the answers, just a bunch of questions)

Costs:  
Reduce the SMS? Would the CFLPA be on board?
Cap the players salaries? Would either the CFLPA or the owners be on board?
Cap the coaches and other staff salaries? CFLPA would be on board, but would the coaches or owners go for it?
Reduce the number of players per team? Would any of the CFLPA, the owners or coaches be on board? How many would you have to reduce it to make 20 mill of difference anyway?

Revenues:
TSN pays the most, would they be willing to pay even more or would the fill the air time with cheaper alternatives?
Advertisers pay more for more eyes, so you need to increase the number of people who watch. How?
CFL 2.0? Maybe in a decade or two if it works.
Revenue sharing? It's hard enough trying to get owners without telling them if you do well, you'll have to share your profits and if you don't, you'll get money from the other owners. It's the opposite of fostering a competitive environment that sports relies on.  
Analyze more fans at less per ticket vs less fans at more per ticket. (Likely already has been done.)

Rules:
Reduce or remove the number required NI's? Less NI's = Less competition for their services = Less pay per player. More imports = Less cost than NI's due to supply. How many less eyes on the product with less NI's considering that more Imp's = better football?
Go to NFL rules? Some think this would work better and would allow for a US TV contract. The CFL is already a feeder league for the NFL.


I understand your point about players or owners not being on board possibly to some SMS changes etc.

The hard reality is there may not be better alternatives if they are losing money. It's just business 101.
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pjrocksmb
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#1D+ Hall is boss


« Reply #25 on: August 19, 2020, 02:07:46 AM »

Need a "maybe" option.  Too early to tell.  Based on their "working together" and "finding solutions" so far, I'd say it doesn't look good.


Added

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/cfl-analysis-covid19-fans-revenue-1.5690149
« Last Edit: August 19, 2020, 02:16:53 AM by pjrocksmb » Logged

I don't follow the No Fun League b/c I live in Canada and love the CFL
Go Big Blue
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« Reply #26 on: August 19, 2020, 04:26:56 AM »

Once there is a tested and proven COVID 19 vaccine available there will definetley be changes to what is safe and what venues can open so a pandemic reoccurrence can be mitigated. There will have to be discussions on what to do for those that choose not to have the vaccine. Hoping that early 2021 is the the time frame we are looking at as 2020 CFL season has now been officially cancelled. There will be new normals we will have to deal with so the CFL will have changes implemented but you would sure hope that the basic on field experience of 3 down Canadian football with fans in the stands is what we end up with.
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The "Moo Cow" Cream Play of the 107th Grey Cup - #3 Thiadric Hansen: One hit takes out two Tiger Cats.
The "Cup Clincher" 3 player OT interception to end the 108th Grey Cup: #32 - #30 - #19 for a repeat Blue Bomber win.
TecnoGenius
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« Reply #27 on: August 19, 2020, 07:01:25 AM »


Good article.  Dude must read the Bombers Forum!  Cheesy

Quote
"What we're going to do is figure out a way to live with COVID and and get our fans back in stadiums," Miller said.

"June is a long time away and we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. But our focus is having our fans back in the stadium for 2021."

Just what I've been saying.  No guarantee of a vaccine.  No guarantee it fizzles out on its own.

All of you who said put a fork in 2020 because of covid, do you want to put a fork in 2021 also?  What about 2022?  Spanish Flu took 3 years to burn out.  Covid could do the same.

WM is the smartest man in that room.  Need to find a way to get fans in the stands even if covid is exactly the same as it is today.  Government needs to get out of the way and let grown adults make their own decisions based on their own risk factors if covid is for 1, 2, 3 more years.  Is this a free country or not?

If the financials said CFL can't afford to play even just a 6-game 2020 without fans, then how on earth can they play without fans in 2021, if that's what it comes to?  Feds wouldn't lend $30M for 2020, but we're to expect they'll lend us $60M (or whatever) to play a full season fan-less in 2021?  Pffffttt.

The CFL and owners need to come out immediately and say they will have a 2021 season, and that season will have fans in the stands.  Period.  If the hide-in-your-basement government wants to stand in their way come April 2021, let everyone see who the real impediment is.

And now what about the teams that already said they couldn't afford to miss even just 2020?  Were they lying, or are a couple of teams about to fold for good?
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Never go full Rider!
TecnoGenius
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« Reply #28 on: August 19, 2020, 07:05:00 AM »

The CFL is the only Winnipeg sports league that couldn't afford to play this year. NHL, CPL, IPB (Goldeyes) all made it work.

That's really pathetic that we were out-leagued by the Goldeyes league.  Beaten by Goldeyes and soccer.  Hell, we were even beaten by the bankrupt defunct XFL because they'll take to the field long before the CFL does.  We worried about XFL talent-drain before?  Now CFL players have a legit reason to bail for the XFL as at this moment in time the XFL looks more stable and financially viable!!

Sad.  Pathetic.
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Never go full Rider!
Blue In BC
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« Reply #29 on: August 19, 2020, 01:04:33 PM »

Good article.  Dude must read the Bombers Forum!  Cheesy

Just what I've been saying.  No guarantee of a vaccine.  No guarantee it fizzles out on its own.

All of you who said put a fork in 2020 because of covid, do you want to put a fork in 2021 also?  What about 2022?  Spanish Flu took 3 years to burn out.  Covid could do the same.

WM is the smartest man in that room.  Need to find a way to get fans in the stands even if covid is exactly the same as it is today.  Government needs to get out of the way and let grown adults make their own decisions based on their own risk factors if covid is for 1, 2, 3 more years.  Is this a free country or not?

If the financials said CFL can't afford to play even just a 6-game 2020 without fans, then how on earth can they play without fans in 2021, if that's what it comes to?  Feds wouldn't lend $30M for 2020, but we're to expect they'll lend us $60M (or whatever) to play a full season fan-less in 2021?  Pffffttt.

The CFL and owners need to come out immediately and say they will have a 2021 season, and that season will have fans in the stands.  Period.  If the hide-in-your-basement government wants to stand in their way come April 2021, let everyone see who the real impediment is.

And now what about the teams that already said they couldn't afford to miss even just 2020?  Were they lying, or are a couple of teams about to fold for good?


You're sounding a bit unhinged lately. You're wanting to jump the hurdles needlessly at this point. There are many sports and large entertainment business's that don't know what will happen in 2021.

NHL and MLB bubbles may not be realistic for entire 2021 seasons. Neither have guaranteed a return of fans in the stands either. That may make full seasons unrealistic financially.

Schools / colleges across Canada and USA are struggling to see whether it's safe to send people back to class. High school sports activities have been curtailed as well.

Obviously some are saying re-start everything and let the chips fall where they may. Bars, nightclubs, beaches are quickly becoming new hot spots.

Relax, put on your mask when necessary and be part of the solution. Convince your friends to do the same. Let the science and progress made as we move forward help make new decisions.

No it's not a free country where an individuals rights overrule those set by society for the benefit of the whole. That's been discussed at length.

Your argument sounds like one we might hear from an anti vaxxer or those refusing to wear masks etc.

« Last Edit: August 19, 2020, 02:55:56 PM by Blue In BC » Logged

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