How do you beat the D on Zach's last pass?

[TecnoGenius]

If you don't want to talk '22 GC and X's and O's, close this thread now!  No whiners!

Picture it:

4Q0:57, Zach's final pass attempt.  2nd & 5 @TOR 40YL.  Standard 5 man OL plus BO blocking.  TOR shows 4 but brings 7 (3 are badly disguised and Zach read it immediately).  All DBs are 5 yards off LoS.  3 recv out to the field, 2 to boundary.

Demski in the field #1 slot curls out right at the sticks.  Other SB runs post clearing route.  Woli (I think) is wide out setting up the screen for Demski.  Zach throws the ball to Demski immediately: 1s.  TOR DE #6 is un-engaged by Stan, who takes the more-inside blitzer.  That DE, being free, hangs back and jumps and gets the block on Zach's hot route.  Zach screams F bombs at the football gods as he leaves the field on national TV while the cam has his face on an iso shot.  He knows he may have just lost the GC.

I've gone over this play in my head quite a bit.  It's an extremely good defensive play.  Well drawn up, well executed.  In fact, it's basically the WPG trick with using Willie J to batdown the hot routes, and has helped us defeat the dink & dunking SSK O for 3 seasons in a row.

My question is: how does an O beat this D scheme?  If Buck could know in advance this was the D scheme, what play would he call to counter it?  We all know every play has a counter.  That's why the chess match is so important.  The failure of this play wasn't the pass or any player: the failure was the call wasn't the right one for what TOR decided to bring.  We did that a lot that night.  We were predictable and TOR had counters set up for all our go-to plays.

Obviously at this point in the game you need a high-percentage play.  You're in FG range (though tenuous with Leggs) and you only need 5 yards.  So while tossing a mid-range rainbow might get you an explosion, it's not a viable call.  And since the QB probably read blitz pre-snap, you know it'll have to be one of your hot options.  Clearly Buck anticipated this as he had the hot route as the #1 read.

I've had a hard time figuring out the best play for the D formation.  Here are my ideas:

1. BO run in the A-gap, perhaps on a delay draw: They were bringing 7, but they were widely spread out to go for the bat-down.  In fact, they had 2 guys wide on the DL jump up to block.  We only had 5 OL in, but our guys could have found the weakness in a wash or something?  Basically, go to whatever gap didn't have Muamba in it.  Downside: OL botches it or BO doesn't truck through and we get only 1-2 yards.

2. Dump Screen : Have Zach back way up looking like he's scared of the blitz pass rush, like BLM used to be so good at, and high-arc toss it to a sneaking-out BO.  This looks attractive based on what I saw because the entire flat was vacated.  The risk is one of those gonna-jump DL may have hung back to catch the sneaking out player.  But we really haven't done this with BO all year, so this is a good call from an unexpected/tendency-breaker standpoint.

3. Haul out the fancier play, like with Miller or Dobson at TE, use play action to fake the handoff to BO, and see if the TE broke free.  Or use that TE for more pass-pro to give Zach more time for a long crosser to develop.  Ya, this kind of breaks my original scenario setup because it requires bringing in a different formation.  However, if we're only going for the high-percentage play and everyone knows it, how is sending out 2-3 go routes helpful at all?  I can't help but think Lapo would have had more up his sleeve for this precise moment.  Buck just went all vanilla on us -- no risk, no reward.  Why not let Zach call an audible to get the slots to come in for max-pro blocking knowing he'll have man coverage on a mid-range route?

Can you think of a better play to call against this D scheme?  When you start thinking about it, you'll realize that there aren't many good options.  The whole middle flat for the short pass is ruined by that wide / 7 man DL.  The 5 yard wide out probably won't work either because the corners are ready to pounce for the easy INT.  QB can't bootleg or swing out because the line is so wide.  Sweeps won't work for the same reason: the unblocked guy on each side can cut off the edges  Nope, has to be a high-arc short pass or a deep ball or a run.  What do you think?

[TecnoGenius]

Ugh, no takers?  No one cares about the X's and O's?

[pjrocksmb]

Ugh, no takers?  No one cares about the X's and O's?

I like tic tac toe lol

[bluengold204]

Ugh, no takers?  No one cares about the X's and O's?

We?ve moved on

[GOLDMEMBER]

Yes MOVE ON rehashing that crap is pointless at this point.

[ModAdmin]

I get Techno's ability to dissect a play and examine breakdowns, execution, missed assignments, etc.  There were no doubt several plays, if not many plays, in those categories.

But, as the Bombers apparently do, with some success, is review the game tape, note and address successes and failures, and then flush the game.  With training camps starting in just 13 days, maybe it's time to focus on 2023?  No offence though Techno!

[Sir Blue and Gold]

So Techno, I understand you're coming at this from a 'fun to speculate after the fact perspective' but offensive coordinators don't know the defensive play before they make their calls. To answer your question, and I haven't re-watched the play, but you're just describing a pressure look which can unfold very differently, depending on a host of factors. Sometimes it's a +1 call, meaning regardless of the number of blockers you put in, the defense is committed to bringing one more, which can sometimes count the RB, hence 7. Other times it's coming no matter what you do. Sometimes some or all drop out of it. Zach may 'see' the pressure but he doesn't know it's coming for sure until the snap. You also have to consider that players are taught to play the play. Just because the DE doesn't fully commit to the rush doesn't always mean it was designed that way. Offenses work the same way, slot receivers especially, have built in route combinations based on the look/pressure from the defense, but they are also making decisions on the fly in split seconds. To sum it up, it takes no time at all to come up with a play that wins against that defense, but in reality you don't know the call and the players still need to execute the "perfect" play call even if you did, which doesn't always happen.

[the paw]

So Techno, I understand you're coming at this from a 'fun to speculate after the fact perspective' but offensive coordinators don't know the defensive play before they make their calls. To answer your question, and I haven't re-watched the play, but you're just describing a pressure look which can unfold very differently, depending on a host of factors. Sometimes it's a +1 call, meaning regardless of the number of blockers you put in, the defense is committed to bringing one more, which can sometimes count the RB, hence 7. Other times it's coming no matter what you do. Sometimes some or all drop out of it. Zach may 'see' the pressure but he doesn't know it's coming for sure until the snap. You also have to consider that players are taught to play the play. Just because the DE doesn't fully commit to the rush doesn't always mean it was designed that way. Offenses work the same way, slot receivers especially, have built in route combinations based on the look/pressure from the defense, but they are also making decisions on the fly in split seconds. To sum it up, it takes no time at all to come up with a play that wins against that defense, but in reality you don't know the call and the players still need to execute the "perfect" play call even if you did, which doesn't always happen.

I was going to say something similar, but less technical.  When Collaros read blitz and the receiver runs hot route, Collaros then has to recognize that the DE has dropped, as it is happening.  Unless he can squeeze it in the window, the only other choice is to pull the ball down.  He can then try to scramble for the 5 if he can find a lane, but it is improbable that he will have enough time to go to a second read. 

the truth of the matter is that the Argos did a ton of film study and were well schooled in how the Bombers reacted to blitz or the the show of blitz.  There were several occasions where they exploited that knowledge (blowing by Hardrick on one play comes to mind).  They did their work and executed well enough. 

[TecnoGenius]

But, as the Bombers apparently do, with some success, is review the game tape, note and address successes and failures, and then flush the game.  With training camps starting in just 13 days, maybe it's time to focus on 2023?  No offence though Techno!

I guess my mistake was framing it as a GC question when really I'm interested in a solution to this D play regardless of what game it is in.  It just so happened the play was in the GC.

[TecnoGenius]

So Techno, I understand you're coming at this from a 'fun to speculate after the fact perspective' but offensive coordinators don't know the defensive play before they make their calls.

Ya, lots of factors at play.  But my "what if" was what if Buck did know exactly what the D play call was?  And, to your point, he also knows how the players will actually play it.  (Yes, that's a contrived, impossible scenario.)  Then what does he call?  What does he do differently.

I think OCs have a feel for when DCs are going to bring pressure.  You can tell by whether they plan in a hot route or not.  You can also tell how much the QBs are expecting pressure based on whether and by how much they focus on that hot route.  In the play in question I think it was obvious both Buck and Zach were strongly expecting pressure.

You make a good point about the "DE doesn't fully commit to the rush"; but if TOR's M.O. all game was to focus on Zach contain, then it would stand to reason the outermost players on the line would be careful not to overcommit.

But I'm intrigued by your: "it takes no time at all to come up with a play that wins against that defense".  So what is your opinion as to the winning play here?  What else should Buck have done besides that one Demski hot route?  I'm genuinely curious.

[TecnoGenius]

I was going to say something similar, but less technical.  When Collaros read blitz and the receiver runs hot route, Collaros then has to recognize that the DE has dropped, as it is happening.  Unless he can squeeze it in the window, the only other choice is to pull the ball down.  He can then try to scramble for the 5 if he can find a lane, but it is improbable that he will have enough time to go to a second read. 

Ya I thought of a QB scramble straight north.  But our OL was firmly in pass-pro, and doing a good job, and the number of hole-stuffers meant there were no organically-opening holes.  And the ends were sealed off.  And Zach was known gimpy, and he's not a great north-runner anyhow.  It seems the perfect D play to stop the likely Buck call at that moment.

the truth of the matter is that the Argos did a ton of film study and were well schooled in how the Bombers reacted to blitz or the the show of blitz.  There were several occasions where they exploited that knowledge (blowing by Hardrick on one play comes to mind).  They did their work and executed well enough. 

You make the most important point.  TOR film study and play design was lightyears ahead of what we brought to the game.  We thought our normal game and high talent level could beat anything and we didn't even come up with any interesting wrinkles (not even the everybody-saw-it-coming Prukop pass).  I bet TOR had dozens of braintrust people working on schemes and calls for weeks just to win this game.  This is probably the most disappointing part of the loss; and I'm not sure Lapo would have made that same mistake had he still been OC.  The innovation and chess match is what I like most about the game, and to see another team do it better than us makes me cringe.  I blame Pinball.  He's too good, smart and motivational.

Thanks for the responses all!  It warms my heart.