Zero emission by 2035 in Canada

[Pigskin]

Can't see it happening.

[theaardvark]

Remember when California enacted their clean air acts, and suddenly car companies had to start upping their game just to sell into Cali?

I can see EV's being the main form of transport in 10 years.  No problem. 

Trains are a little more difficult, battery packs would have to be huge, and electrifying our rail network isn't viable.

I'm still waiting for mini nuke plants to get figured out.  That will be the game changer.

[blue_gold_84]

The EU put forth the same plan last year: https://www.npr.org/2023/03/30/1166921698/eu-zero-emission-cars

11 years is a while away. Think of where EV technology was 11 years ago compared to now.

[theaardvark]

Zero emissions can also work with alternate fuels and combustion engines... I drove a Nat Gas conversion (dual fuel, could switch back and forth with Gasoline) for a number of years, filled it from the shop's gas line with a special compressor.  Burns about as clean as possible.  Alcohol is also an alternative.  So there are emission busters that are not EV

[blue_or_die]

The most difficult part about this is how capable the ZEV supply chain is of scaling. The lead time for EVs - for which the demand is only a small percent today - is impractical because auto manufacturers outside of Tesla haven't figured out to build en masse yet. You have to think that with this fire under their butts, they'd be able to figure it out.

Zero emissions can also work with alternate fuels and combustion engines... I drove a Nat Gas conversion (dual fuel, could switch back and forth with Gasoline) for a number of years, filled it from the shop's gas line with a special compressor.  Burns about as clean as possible.  Alcohol is also an alternative.  So there are emission busters that are not EV

CNG is not renewable, though (unless you have a source of RNG). Ethanol can be carbon-neutral though as long as it's bio- (corn) derived. Is there an all-ethanol engine available, though? One of the problems with using renewable fuels in an ICE is that you're still producing NOx, but I don't think that should be a showstopper just because it's not 'perfect'.

Cummins is working on a hydrogen engine, and can also be used in fuel cells, meaning it can play in both ICE & electric powertrains. Probably the most versatile of the emissions-free options. But that fuel supply and its carbon intensity associated with production are their own separate issue.

I'm on board with the cause, but real action needs to be taken aside from a simple policy announcement to crank up the associated industries. It's too common for politicians to take the credit for saying nice things and having no practical details on execution.

[blue_gold_84]

Toyota has been big on hydrogen engine technology front, too.

[theaardvark]

Hydrogen is great, apart from "Boom".  It can be made with sunlight or wind, and storage is easy.  But "Boom".  Even more the CNG, although it rises, so doesn't make the slow leak CNG explosion issue that keeps those vehicles out of parking garages and tunnels.

Every car manufacture is ramping up EV's.  GM, Volvo, BMW, Ford, Nissan, all ICE companies now have substantial investment in EV's and thier production, and I don't doubt that if demand and resources were to become available, they could switch a huge portion of production to EV's.  The fact Tesle started from an EV only platform did give them a leg up on the production tech, I don't think they have the corner on that production, or mass production for that matter.

The big issue people seem to have with EV's is the charging infrastructure.  Most see our grids as woefully inadequate to handle that much charging.  But most charging takes place at night, when grid use is lowest.  And I can see a day, sooner than later, when our houses have solar and wind generation capacity, and battery storage, that will more than compensate for EV usage, and actually end up putting power back into the grid in a substantial way.  In the meantime, we are economizing on our grid usage, more efficient appliances, LED's and the like have left my home and business electrical bills lower almost every year, even with rising costs and increased use.  And, with charging technology getting faster, I can see more charging superstations opening, powered by their own wind/solar, not drawing from the grid at all.

I am very optimistic about the future, if we can find more resources to make EV's and batteries from (waiting for that asteroid mining breakthrough, I think that's more what Musk is looking for with Starship), and
and developing even better solar/wind generation.  And, there was great news on the Fusion front as well... can you imagine charging stations with their own fusion plants?

[Pigskin]

We have had two EVs for just over a year now. I love my Lighting. On a full charge I can get to Kenora and back no problem. As far as charging goes, we installed a level 2, 48 amp charging station which was about $750.00 with taxes. With the permit and installation we are right around $1200.00. This charger is excellent, however we have a newer home with a 200 amp panel and had room to install this charger. Someone like my daughter who has a older home with a 100 amp panel and doesn't have room, so she will have to install a pony panel $$$ or go with a much slower charger.

Learned very quickly that the truck get about 5-10% less in range then Ford reported. So for my vehicle it's 25-50 kms.

Planning a trip: Took the vehicle to the GC last year. First stop Brandon, vehicle was down about 50%, found a Level 3 charger, went for lunch. The vehicle was fully charged and ready to go in 30 minutes. Off to Weyburn. Weyburn at the time only had only Level 2 charging station. It was behind the hardware store, looked a little shady, ended up plugging it in at the hotel. By morning it was fully charged and ready to go. It was also free so you have to love that. Pretty much the same on the way home, just a little longer lunch in Brandon. I believe we shelled out around $16.00 for charging on the trip.

[blue_or_die]

Hydrogen is great, apart from "Boom".  It can be made with sunlight or wind, and storage is easy.  But "Boom".  Even more the CNG, although it rises, so doesn't make the slow leak CNG explosion issue that keeps those vehicles out of parking garages and tunnels.

I'm still waiting for evidence that compressed hydrogen is significantly dangerous in a mobility application. There are quite a few safety features that make it so that it has to be a perfect storm to make a cylinder explode. The nanosecond there's a leak (say, from a puncture from a collision, that gas is gone. Like you said, it does not accumulate and it's near instantly up in the stratosphere.

Every car manufacture is ramping up EV's.  GM, Volvo, BMW, Ford, Nissan, all ICE companies now have substantial investment in EV's and thier production, and I don't doubt that if demand and resources were to become available, they could switch a huge portion of production to EV's.  The fact Tesle started from an EV only platform did give them a leg up on the production tech, I don't think they have the corner on that production, or mass production for that matter.

What Tesla does have that others don't is vertical integration. They own their own battery supply which is the biggest factor. I agree that the legacy OEMs should be able to figure out mass production relatively easily but the capex and huge divergence of resources necessary is probably quite the annoyance for them.

The big issue people seem to have with EV's is the charging infrastructure.  Most see our grids as woefully inadequate to handle that much charging.  But most charging takes place at night, when grid use is lowest.  And I can see a day, sooner than later, when our houses have solar and wind generation capacity, and battery storage, that will more than compensate for EV usage, and actually end up putting power back into the grid in a substantial way.  In the meantime, we are economizing on our grid usage, more efficient appliances, LED's and the like have left my home and business electrical bills lower almost every year, even with rising costs and increased use.  And, with charging technology getting faster, I can see more charging superstations opening, powered by their own wind/solar, not drawing from the grid at all.

It's human nature to think about the handful of times you take a road trip or even just have a day with a ton of driving and it's easy to think that it's inconvenient to worry about range, worry about where to charge, and how long it will take to charge. Then again, plug-in hybrids basically solve that problem for just about everyone. They can and should do a better job of building those IMO.

[theaardvark]

I'm still waiting for evidence that compressed hydrogen is significantly dangerous in a mobility application. There are quite a few safety features that make it so that it has to be a perfect storm to make a cylinder explode. The nanosecond there's a leak (say, from a puncture from a collision, that gas is gone. Like you said, it does not accumulate and it's near instantly up in the stratosphere.

What Tesla does have that others don't is vertical integration. They own their own battery supply which is the biggest factor. I agree that the legacy OEMs should be able to figure out mass production relatively easily but the capex and huge divergence of resources necessary is probably quite the annoyance for them.

It's human nature to think about the handful of times you take a road trip or even just have a day with a ton of driving and it's easy to think that it's inconvenient to worry about range, worry about where to charge, and how long it will take to charge. Then again, plug-in hybrids basically solve that problem for just about everyone. They can and should do a better job of building those IMO.

I drove a PHEV Outlander for a year, spent $150 in gas.  Plug in Hybrids are amazing in town, but not great if you drive over 50km every day (unless you charge at work).  Problem is, two different propulsion systems, so its actually more to maintain than a ICE engine or an EV by themselves.  If they made them with a bigger range, 100+km before ICE, they'd be a lot better, but still, its a halfway measure.  If  PHEV was NG or Hydrogen powered ICE, that might be perfect. 

There are many critical points in fuelling for Hydrogen or CNG, which is where the concern remains.  Once it is in the tank, its pretty safe (except for plumbing leaks, meaning they need regular inspections, using gas sniffers).  My issue is large scale storage of the product makes for vulnerable targets for vandalism/terrorism, and for mishandling.  Catastrophic release is catastrophic.

[blue_or_die]

There are many critical points in fuelling for Hydrogen or CNG, which is where the concern remains.  Once it is in the tank, its pretty safe (except for plumbing leaks, meaning they need regular inspections, using gas sniffers).  My issue is large scale storage of the product makes for vulnerable targets for vandalism/terrorism, and for mishandling.  Catastrophic release is catastrophic.

There are literally thousands of sites across the province alone with large tanks of compressed methane and propane, not to mention stores for gasoline, diesel, kerosene....if there were problems with people vandalizing these, we would (literally) hear about them.

If you're storing literally tons of hydrogen at a time, it can and should be liquified, which is more complex than other fuels but is very possible and needed in order to help solve the transportation question.

[Pigskin]

Friends of our purchased a Chevy Bolt a month ago. They love this vehicle for the city, but not enough range for long highway trips. 416 km range, but probably closer to 380 km on a full charge. Also, the dealership supplied them with a level 1 changing cord. But, it was far to slow unless you plug the vehicle in every day and night. Level 1 charging rate 4-6 kms per hours. They have now up graded to a Level 2 charging system which is much better with a charging rate of 38-40 kms per hour.

[Blueforlife]

Will be hard to keep to these targets but I sure hope we do, the pace of climate change is excelerating