EDM @ SSK Sept 16 GDT

[gobombersgo]

I see SSK winning 0 more games.  They are demoralized, beaten down and lack all momentum.  They've been fielding basically their best line-up (no more injury excuses) and getting beaten by their hated rivals (us) and now the worst team at home (EDM).  If HAM can play 2 more games like they did against us, and especially get a win and spread greater than 17 vs SSK, then there will be no crossover this year.  That means SSK is out of the playoffs.  Their fan base hasn't realized this yet and will go mental.  In a bad way.

For the Riders to get the crossover they need a better win loss record than the 3rd place Eastern team. Spreads don't  come into play.

That Ham/ Rider game is going to a long way to determine who gets 3rd.

Ottawa also has a chance as they have some games in hand. They just need to get on a winning streak.

[Pigskin]

For the Riders to get the crossover they need a better win loss record than the 3rd place Eastern team. Spreads don't  come into play.

That Ham/ Rider game is going to a long way to determine who gets 3rd.

Ottawa also has a chance as they have some games in hand. They just need to get on a winning streak.

This could get interesting from here on out.

BC: Has no bye weeks left.  They have to play C/O/T/W/E/W

Sask: Have two bye weeks left. They will play play W/H/C/C. Three of 4 away.

Ham: Have 5 games left. They will play M/S/C/O/O.

Montreal:  They also have 6 games left. They will play H/E/O/O/T/T.

[TecnoGenius]

For the Riders to get the crossover they need a better win loss record than the 3rd place Eastern team. Spreads don't  come into play.

Oh, didn't know that, thanks!  That makes it even worse for SSK!!

This could get interesting from here on out.

Sask: Have two bye weeks left. They will play play W/H/C/C. Three of 4 away.
Ham: Have 5 games left. They will play M/S/C/O/O.

I think SSK is doomed then.  SSK will win 0 or maybe luck out on one.  I think WPG and CGY will be fighting to the end to fend off BC, which means no "free" garbage-season wins for any of the West playoff-bound teams.

HAM should win vs SSK, and 1 or 2 of their divisional games.  Just 2 wins and HAM blocks out an all-loss SSK.

The interesting thing is EDM could tie SSK for worst-in-west and 2nd worst-in-league with 2 more wins, which is achievable looking at their upcoming opponents.  And if EDM manages 3-1 down the stretch they put SSK into the basement.  Now that would be embarrassing for the supposed #2 best team in the West (based on last year, FA guesses, and Milt Stegall).  If that happens it'll be earthquakes in Riderville that will eat up some high-up staff.

If we win 3 of 4 we will lock up #1 in West.  We might even do it on 1 or 2 wins, but we won't know until near the end.  As long as we beat BC once (more) we should be fine.  We might get a final week rest if we win that 1st BC game because we'll have the season series so a tie in wins will be good enough.

If there's ever a year we need the playoff bye, it's this one.  And the HAM-SSK game and 1st WPG-BC game should be epic stuff as they may be crucial.

[Blue In BC]

I've changed my mind about this play after reading all you guys/gals wrote, and the official ruling.  And watching the angles on frame-by-frame.  Some things:

1. No oral call was made on the field.  That means the field-call was DBC, 3rd down.  But, when the ball is out like that, refs owe us an oral call on the field.  Normally they would announce this.  However, Dickenson The Lesser challenged so fast maybe he interrupted any potential oral call.  Kroeker was very flustered and screwing up his thoughts when he announced the challenge.

2. Ball definitely out.  I think the refs saw it was out.

3. From the rear view we can see a few things that lead me to believe one of the refs (probably the guy with his head in the pile) saw that Cornelius recovered the ball and was DBC and blew the whistle.  He's the only one that knows what went on.

4. The rear view lets us infer a few things:
a) For EDM, only Cornelius could have recovered, because:
b) He was flanked by two OL who both had their backs to him and had no way to know it was fumbled or reach it with their hands.
c) Cornelius knew it was fumbled and would have been doing gymnastics reaching back to recover, he could have seen the ball and reached back, all very doable long-snapper type gymnastics.
d) The ball was sitting on some guys and then had a rapid drop like someone was pulling it down, faster than gravity would accelerate it (speculating).
e) No SSK players yet knew it was out and no SSK hands were around.  You can tell when they notice it's out as they get very animated reaching for it but Cornelius was already pulling it down

5. If you consider this sequence now, and watch both the live play with the audible whistle and the rear replay, it all makes sense:
a) Sneak about half a yard
b) Fumble
c) Gymnastics recovery begins by Cornelius
d) SSK players see it's out and get animated but Cornelius has pulled it down
e) Pile ref sees Cornelius has it and he's DBC or not advancing
f) Whistle blows
g) SSK steals it from Cornelius because he's in a weak protection position (can't put his weight on the ball)

When I watched live I thought SSK got ripped off, but now I think the above scenario is more likely.  Before I thought the refs missed it was fumbled and just ruled the ol' "not immediately recovered" thing, but that's not what command said.  They said fumbled and recovered by Cornelius.  It all jives if you understand that the guy in the best position to know and recover the fumble was Cornelius himself.

Sankey might have had a chance on it at first but his head was tilted up and he didn't notice until it was a hair too late.

I think the refs should have a) made an oral call on the field, and b) told Dickerson The Lesser that the above is what happened.  They should have told him they saw the fumble and Cornelius recovered.  I bet he thought they didn't see anything, like we all did.  If he knew what they thought happened happened he likely would keep his challenge.  Or he challenges anyway because he's desperate at that point.

A lot of words but very good detailed analysis. thanks for doing it.

[ichabod_crane]

For the Riders to get the crossover they need a better win loss record than the 3rd place Eastern team. Spreads don't  come into play.

That Ham/ Rider game is going to a long way to determine who gets 3rd.

Ottawa also has a chance as they have some games in hand. They just need to get on a winning streak.

Correcto Mundo. Potential cross over team has to have more points than the 3rd place in the other division. A tie in points is meaningless. No tie breaker procedures involved

Some interesting factoids: no eastern team has ever crossed over to the west. Also no cross over team has ever made it To the grey cup. Eastern final at best a few times