What is the cutoff

[theaardvark]

Do we wait for mathematical elimination, or do we start sooner?

When do we start using "next years" players in live game snaps.  Even if they are not better now that current players?

We are already playing a lot of them with the injuries we have, but when players come back, do they slot back in, or have to win the spot back?

We all know, year to year, there are changes made necessary by $SMS causing bidding wars that take players out of budget.  And the key is having players ready to step in.

Is there a time, a number of losses, that triggers "reload" and we start giving players we hope will start next year a chance to play full games and meaningful snaps?

Or do we stick with every veteran to the final snap of the season, and hope we can get what is going to be a different crew up to speed in camp with 2 Preseason games?

[TBURGESS]

We've got 2 against BC & 2 against SKN. Assuming both are splits, they get the tie breakers so we'd have to win more games than each of them to get 1st or 2nd. I think we can kiss 1st & 2nd goodbye. 

We have the tie breaker with Calgary, but they are 1 win ahead with a game in hand. That's our best shot of backing into the playoffs IMO. 

Toronto, the 3rd team in the east is already 2 wins ahead of us, have a game in hand, and only need to tie our win # to get the eastern playoff spot. 

[The Zipp]

pretty simple answer - you play to win with your best players until there is no chance at playoffs, then and only then do you start experimenting.  There are always enough injuries to get looks at new players.

[BlueInCgy]

As long as Calgary is within striking distance we won't change.  We should, but we won't.

[Nic16]

As long as Calgary is within striking distance we won't change.  We should, but we won't.

This unfortunately is what I keep saying to my circle of f&f.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but Osh is showing he's stubbornly loyal to a fault. And the Canadian Mafia is a tight knit group that to this point show no cracks in the family.

[BomberFan73]

Who specifically are we talking about playing more?

QB WIlson?  Maybe the odd snap
WR Wilson?  He ain't coming out of the lineup
I'd like to see some changes on the Oline....are Vanterpool & Randolph worth keeping around next year?
Garbutt's gonna get a ton of snaps from here out. Hubert too.  Can Schmekel beat out Jake? 
AT LB we'd do good to get a good look at Ayers
DB, no real changes, but have to think this is Alexander's last year.

[gobombersgo]

Something to consider:

As per Article 15 of the CBA, players of certain veteran status must be paid their full salary, pension, playoff and Grey Cup earnings if they are released after a certain point in the season.

Qualified as a Veteran of   Entitled to 100% salary after
Six years or more   9th Regular Season game

Five years   10th Regular Season game

Four years   11th Regular Season game

[Nic16]

I know we would never pull a Wally, but if you dump a vet or 2 before the stated deadline, you could use the saved $$ for re-signing upcoming FA's or to re-negotiate vet contracts before year end.

[bwiser]

Its too early to give up on the season. There is still time to turn this around. The defense and special teams are coming around and Colleros has played okay, not great. The biggest problem is the O line which is currently one of the worst in the league. If we get Lawler and maybe Bailey in the lineup I think the receivers will be fine. The Bombers are not likely to have a home playoff game but finishing in third in the west and going into the playoffs on a roll and maybe getting back to the Grey Cup is not impossible. The Bombers finished in third in 2019 so they know they can do it.

[ichabod_crane]

Its too early to give up on the season. There is still time to turn this around. The defense and special teams are coming around and Colleros has played okay, not great. The biggest problem is the O line which is currently one of the worst in the league. If we get Lawler and maybe Bailey in the lineup I think the receivers will be fine. The Bombers are not likely to have a home playoff game but finishing in third in the west and going into the playoffs on a roll and maybe getting back to the Grey Cup is not impossible. The Bombers finished in third in 2019 so they know they can do it.

There is still time with Calgary crapping the bed too. WE got Edmonton still twice, Cats twice although they have looked better. Then again Edmonton is atrocious and probably goes 0-18 this season maybe!!   So jury still out on the Cats if they have turned things around or it's just a mirage.

Have given away GIMME games this year all too often. Now little wiggle room. Even cross over looking unlikely unless they get on a real roll. Third place in west is what they probably can at best hope for... DON'T FORGET They won it all in 2019 finishing in third place. No team has won the Cup with an under .500 record so that is kind of the target point although records are ALWAYS MADE TO BE BROKEN!! Ottawa almost won the cup in 1981 with a 5-11 record. Only a last second fg by Edmonton stole the game from Ottawa and AGAIN ref's ripped Ottawa off late in that game (double pass interference with tony gabriel----is such a thing even possible?). NEVER WILL FORGET THAT ripoff job + John Helton VERY VERY QUESTIONABLE late hit on Warren Moon in 1982 western final. Some major referee gaffs you somehow don't forget as a youngin'!

[Blueforlife]

Not over till labour day at the very least

You go 9 rounds and you go down swinging

Beaten, bruised and knocked down twice but I didn't here no final bell

Ding ding we fight till the end

[Sir Blue and Gold]

Do we wait for mathematical elimination, or do we start sooner?

When do we start using "next years" players in live game snaps.  Even if they are not better now that current players?

We are already playing a lot of them with the injuries we have, but when players come back, do they slot back in, or have to win the spot back?

We all know, year to year, there are changes made necessary by $SMS causing bidding wars that take players out of budget.  And the key is having players ready to step in.

Is there a time, a number of losses, that triggers "reload" and we start giving players we hope will start next year a chance to play full games and meaningful snaps?

Or do we stick with every veteran to the final snap of the season, and hope we can get what is going to be a different crew up to speed in camp with 2 Preseason games?

I don't really think we have any 'next year' players on the roster because the concept doesn't exist.

We have starters and we have rostered backups and we have practice roster players.

You don't play practice roster players if you have someone better on the roster. If you like the way a player projects, but don't think they're ready yet, then rushing them in before they're ready is not really in the player's best interest (or the team's). Not to mention there are SMS implications to doing so if you're not going to release the current starter.

Next year's positions are won in training camp next year.

[dd]

1St or 2nd place?? Surely you are joking...

We play our best, try our best and let the chips fall where they may.

No way, no how does any team MOS coaches quit and no way no how does MOS quit, not in his DNA, not in our players DNA.

Say what you want about the Bombers, they didn't quit like some of the Elks did last night. They have serious trouble in Edmonton. Jackson and MBT are not the answer and the players know that

[Jesse]

Not even going to entertain this conversation at this point of the season. Not a single team has pulled away. We're within 1 win of a play-off spot.

[BlueInCgy]

No team has won the Cup with an under .500 record so that is kind of the target point although records are ALWAYS MADE TO BE BROKEN!! Ottawa almost won the cup in 1981 with a 5-11 record. Only a last second fg by Edmonton stole the game from Ottawa and AGAIN ref's ripped Ottawa off late in that game (double pass interference with tony gabriel----is such a thing even possible?). NEVER WILL FORGET THAT ripoff job + John Helton VERY VERY QUESTIONABLE late hit on Warren Moon in 1982 western final. Some major referee gaffs you somehow don't forget as a youngin'!

The Marcus Crandall lead Stampeders would like to contest your argument.
And the 2000 Lions
And the 2016 Redblacks

8-10 teams have faired relatively well in the GC in recent history.  But 8-10 is a pipe dream for us right now.

[ichabod_crane]

The Marcus Crandall lead Stampeders would like to contest your argument.

I stand corrected! BC Lions did the same thing the prior year (2020) when they were 8-10. I should know as I just moved to Calgary earlier that year when that Cup happened (I did not attend the game though) Brain occupied with too much stuff lately!    Going 0-fer last weekend tripped me up I guess!

Until 2000 though no team ever won the cup without at least a .500 record I believe. The Stamps upset the Bombers in 2001 at 8-10 and the Redblacks beat the Stamps in 2016 with an 8-9-1 record. So it's pretty rare and 8 wins is the low bar mark in history right now (3 times with 18 game schedule).

So Bombers need to win 6 of their last 10 games to get to 8 wins. They can get into the playoffs  with less than 8 wins though easily, but I'm talking about past history to win the cup. Stamps made it into the playoffs with a 6-12 record last year.

This might interest some of you on the forum.....Guess which under .500 team is ranked the worst GC champion in the 18 regular season era or maybe ALL TIME?!

https://3downnation.com/2022/12/27/stolen-titles-five-worst-teams-to-win-the-grey-cup-in-the-last-35-years/

--BTW, the writer of this article above got the release date of the movie T2 off by a decade! That came out in 1991, not 2001!


Crandell was  kind of a flash in the pan in 2001. He never did too well after that either via a combo of bad teams he was on or he truly was a total flash in the pan. He won a cup in 2007 with the Riders over the Bombers, but was not the starter (Kerry Joseph). A pure QB rookie Ryan Dinwiddie almost pulled that game out of the fire for the Bombers and their defence.  The drought almost ended with that GC.
Crande

[ichabod_crane]

Not over till labour day at the very least

You go 9 rounds and you go down swinging

Beaten, bruised and knocked down twice but I didn't here no final bell

Ding ding we fight till the end

Rocky rises off the mat in the waning seconds of the last round in Rocky II to win the heavyweight championship!

Maybe they need to bring Sly in for a psychological pick me up! YO ADRIAN!

[TecnoGenius]

We've had the worst injury virus of any team in 2024 in terms of total-team impact.  It doesn't always happen, but sometimes the injuries will even out over the full season.

For instance, BC could lose always-on-the-edge VAJ + Hollins + maybe-already-hurt McInnis.  Then they wouldn't win another game this season.  SSK could have just a hair more bad luck, maybe with some star D as Trevor gets extended.

You never know.  Bad things could happen elsewhere right as we're getting Kenny, Wilson & Parker back and some new FA insertions... the only problem is TIME.  We need the luck to change NOW.

[TBURGESS]

I'm not interested in backing into the playoffs this year. I'm interested in starting the rebuild so we have a good team next year. 

[blue_gold_84]

Not even going to entertain this conversation at this point of the season. Not a single team has pulled away. We're within 1 win of a play-off spot.

This. Way, way too early to start this discussion. It's not even midway through the season.

Silly.

[Blue In BC]

I'm not interested in backing into the playoffs this year. I'm interested in starting the rebuild so we have a good team next year.

Teams can re-build during a single off season. Starting one now doesn't specifically improve the odds of a successful 2025. As you can see from 2024, injuries can play a significant role.

Nothing suggests backing into the playoffs won't be a bad outcome. A 3rd place team has advanced to the Grey Cup and won before.  It's not the easiest route, but there is still an opportunity.

That may change quickly if we lose 1 or both games against the Lions. Bombers have an extended bye after this game so that MIGHT be the time to consider the rest of 2024.

Lose this week and it could be curtains. Win and there is still a chance.

Regardless, I'm not sure if we have players to replace some of those that need replacing at the moment.

[Sir Blue and Gold]

I don't think anyone seriously thinks we should tank or throw away the season. But on the other hand, I don't think it's prudent to spend cap dollars for some small incremental gains either. Ut's not going to get us over the finish line. The more options (dollars) we have to spend at the end of this season will help next year. Walters is talented enough to make gains quickly in Free Agency but he needs cap space to do it - especially because Collaros is already on the books for $250,000 in 2025.

[TBURGESS]

MOS took 4 years to rebuild our team. He won't do it in one off season.

There's lots to suggest that backing into the playoff will be a bad outcome. Calling Stats Junkie... how many 3rd place teams made the cup compared to how many 3rd place teams didn't.

Starting now has significant advantages:

• Dumping vets send a huge message to the ones that we keep.
• Dump some SMS to put to new players.
• NFL cuts are coming up in & that's where the best players come from.
• Playing half a season puts new players way ahead of rookies next year.
• Every new player isn't going to make it. Half a season should tell us which ones won't.

Collaros is on the books next year no matter what. His salary has no effect on if it's prudent to start now or to wait until the off season. 

[Blue In BC]

MOS took 4 years to rebuild our team. He won't do it in one off season.

There's lots to suggest that backing into the playoff will be a bad outcome. Calling Stats Junkie... how many 3rd place teams made the cup compared to how many 3rd place teams didn't.

Starting now has significant advantages:

• Dumping vets send a huge message to the ones that we keep.
• Dump some SMS to put to new players.
• NFL cuts are coming up in & that's where the best players come from.
• Playing half a season puts new players way ahead of rookies next year.
• Every new player isn't going to make it. Half a season should tell us which ones won't.

Collaros is on the books next year no matter what. His salary has no effect on if it's prudent to start now or to wait until the off season.

He was a rookie coach then. Now he is a seasoned coach. This is more about what Miller and Walters do in improving the roster and freeing up SMS space in free agency.

3rd place team winning Grey Cup? Check out 2001.

[TBURGESS]

He was a rookie coach then. Now he is a seasoned coach. This is more about what Miller and Walters do in improving the roster and freeing up SMS space in free agency.

3rd place team winning Grey Cup? Check out 2001.

The question wasn't "When was the last time a 3rd place team won the Grey Cup", it was "how many 3rd place teams made the cup compared to how many 3rd place teams didn't". I'm pretty sure the numbers are hugely on the side of 3rd place teams rarely make the GC let alone win it. 

[Blue In BC]

The question wasn't "When was the last time a 3rd place team won the Grey Cup", it was "how many 3rd place teams made the cup compared to how many 3rd place teams didn't". I'm pretty sure the numbers are hugely on the side of 3rd place teams rarely make the GC let alone win it.

Just because it doesn't happen often, doesn't mean it's pointless.

How about 2019 as a better more recent example?  Our 2022 loss was from a 2nd place finisher in the East.

In 2011 there was a 3 way tie for 1st, so that's odd.

[theaardvark]

This. Way, way too early to start this discussion. It's not even midway through the season.

Silly.

This is not a discussion about starting a rebuild, its is a discussion about when to we start discussing a rebuild...

[TBURGESS]

Just because it doesn't happen often, doesn't mean it's pointless.

How about 2019 as a better more recent example?  Our 2022 loss was from a 2nd place finisher in the East.

In 2011 there was a 3 way tie for 1st, so that's odd.

Pointless no. Probable no. 

We're not talking about 2nd place or 3 way ties for first. 

[Blue In BC]

This is not a discussion about starting a rebuild, its is a discussion about when to we start discussing a rebuild...

If we lose, the argument to " start " becomes more valid. What a re-build would look like is not easy to contemplate. In theory, players on the PR and / or current back ups would be given more opportunity to play.

Because we have so many players on 6 game IR, our choices are more limited.

Several vets salaries will be locked in after the 2nd Lions game, so it's a tipping point. Those players in question won't be viable in trade, so it's after this game or the off season IMO.

[TBURGESS]

Several vets salaries will be locked in after the 2nd Lions game, so it's a tipping point. Those players in question won't be viable in trade, so it's after this game or the off season IMO.

Good point. No advantage to cutting players if we have to pay them anyway.

[blue_gold_84]

This is not a discussion about starting a rebuild, its is a discussion about when to we start discussing a rebuild...

In that case, it renders this discussion even sillier, IMO.

That probably shouldn't occur until they're mathematically eliminated. And even then, I don't know that a rebuild would be necessary.

[Blueforlife]

Rocky rises off the mat in the waning seconds of the last round in Rocky II to win the heavyweight championship!

Maybe they need to bring Sly in for a psychological pick me up! YO ADRIAN!

Love it.  I think this is more like Rocky IV.  We do things old school.  We are against the ropes but we take the big Russian down LOL.

Hard yes to Sly, it's all in our head LOL.

[J5V]

Hard yes to Sly, it's all in our head LOL.

Agree, these next two games is where we really find out what we have going forward. I think we've unearthed a few gems, like Garbutt and Pokey. What we absolutely must recover from is the poor play from some of our vets like Zach, BO, Demski, Biggie, Alexander, Neufeld, etc. While I think Zach and BO may have recovered we did not anticipate all these struggles from our vets like this. We need these guys to step it up big time and we need continued contributions from the youngsters. Then we have a chance of making some noise in the second half. If our vets struggle and the injuries continue unabated we are in next year territory already and some hard decisions will need to be made.

[theaardvark]

So, with one more game until vets are guaranteed, and with a 6 game IR at capacity, its hard to make the "for the future" decision on players that might not quite be earning their pay, who we may have replacements for on the roster/pipeline.

Guys like Bryant, Neufeld, Bighill, who may be aging out, are too important for the rest of the year to cut them this soon, just in case.

If we do get mathematically eliminated, I really, really hope that we do rest the vets and play as many rooks as possible.

 

[Blue In BC]

So, with one more game until vets are guaranteed, and with a 6 game IR at capacity, its hard to make the "for the future" decision on players that might not quite be earning their pay, who we may have replacements for on the roster/pipeline.

Guys like Bryant, Neufeld, Bighill, who may be aging out, are too important for the rest of the year to cut them this soon, just in case.

If we do get mathematically eliminated, I really, really hope that we do rest the vets and play as many rooks as possible.

 

It's a timing issue. Since we can't cut those vets, adding players from the PR or free agents is an additional cost to the SMS.

Players have to agree to be moved to the 6 game IR and that would be the only way to gain SMS. Unless they are actually injured they aren't going to agree.

The league might have something to say if you parked several high SMS players all at once.

We could make Alexander,  Bighill and Thomas the rotation players and give the rookies or 2nd year players more playing time though.

[dd]

Calgary is 1 maybe 2 games ahead of us with 11 games to go. We can make up this ground . I hope we don't get eliminated but if we do we have to know **** sure who were retaining and who we aren't going into 2025, and if that means giving rooks some game time to evaluate them so be it.

[TecnoGenius]

I'm not interested in backing into the playoffs this year. I'm interested in starting the rebuild so we have a good team next year.

Not me.  My main goal is playoffs.  For one simple reason: if we stop getting new injuries we'll be almost at peak health come playoff time (only Shoen is gone until next year, out of all the stars).  Not only that, but the guys like Lawler won't have half a season of bruises and dings... they'll be fresh right as the opponent Ds are nursing bad ankles and bum knees.

Oh ya, fresh and HUNGRY.

Besides, everyone we want to get "looks" is getting looks right now, trust me.  What R haven't we gotten tons of looks at?  Who else do we need to "try out"?  Same with DBs, LBs, DL (my oh my DL!): even QB we got to see Strev start.

The only thing left to "get a look at" would be to try starting Wallace and Eli instead of ? and ?.  My opinion is you don't really want to see that!!  Careful what you wish for!

[TecnoGenius]

There's lots to suggest that backing into the playoff will be a bad outcome. Calling Stats Junkie... how many 3rd place teams made the cup compared to how many 3rd place teams didn't.

I'm not even eyeing that... I wouldn't rule out our team making the cup as the crossover team(!), if we finally get healthy and rolling late in the season.  If there's any group that can pull off miracles, it's this one.

Starting now has significant advantages:

• Dumping vets send a huge message to the ones that we keep.

Ya, the message is "we'll Chris Jones your butt because you are dirt and you better play well next week or you'll be next!".  Have you been watching MOS for a decade? That's not how he rolls.  Never gonna happen.

[TecnoGenius]

This is not a discussion about starting a rebuild, its is a discussion about when to we start discussing a rebuild...

Well that's super easy to answer: after the 2025 home GC season.  Everything revolves around that.

[TecnoGenius]

Love it.  I think this is more like Rocky IV.  We do things old school.  We are against the ropes but we take the big Russian down LOL.

Rocky wasn't getting beaten up for a zillion rounds, he was just wearing Drago out!

WPG isn't really losing all these games, we're just wearing our opponents out for the kill shot after labor day!

   

Well, probably not.  We're just taking punches to the face for no reason, basically.

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

Well that's super easy to answer: after the 2025 home GC season.  Everything revolves around that.

I think the idea of winning a G.C. at home in any circumstances is a Princesses fairy tale, it's a highly unlikely scenario that shouldn't be considered a logical goal for any team to expect to achieve. There's always a chance, but the odds are usually very slim, and putting faith in such odds always strikes me as being a bit naive.

[blue_gold_84]

I think the idea of winning a G.C. at home in any circumstances is a Princesses fairy tale, it's a highly unlikely scenario that shouldn't be considered a logical goal for any team to expect to achieve. There's always a chance, but the odds are usually very slim, and putting faith in such odds always strikes me as being a bit naive.

Even if the chances are slim, you still gotta make a push for it.

With the success this franchise and regime has had the last several years, the icing on the proverbial cake would be to win a championship on home field.

[Jesse]

Not me.  My main goal is playoffs.  For one simple reason: if we stop getting new injuries we'll be almost at peak health come playoff time (only Shoen is gone until next year, out of all the stars).  Not only that, but the guys like Lawler won't have half a season of bruises and dings... they'll be fresh right as the opponent Ds are nursing bad ankles and bum knees.

Oh ya, fresh and HUNGRY.

Besides, everyone we want to get "looks" is getting looks right now, trust me.  What R haven't we gotten tons of looks at?  Who else do we need to "try out"?  Same with DBs, LBs, DL (my oh my DL!): even QB we got to see Strev start.

The only thing left to "get a look at" would be to try starting Wallace and Eli instead of ? and ?.  My opinion is you don't really want to see that!!  Careful what you wish for!

Pretty much.

This season is this season. Not much we can do about next season right now even if we wanted to.

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

Even if the chances are slim, you still gotta make a push for it.

With the success this franchise and regime has had the last several years, the icing on the proverbial cake would be to win a championship on home field.

Not sure Zach can make that date, and without Zach doing his thing, it leaves an enormous hole in the game plan.

[blue_gold_84]

Not sure Zach can make that date, and without Zach doing his thing, it leaves an enormous hole in the game plan.

The WFC can cross that bridge in the off-season.

[Jesse]

Not sure Zach can make that date, and without Zach doing his thing, it leaves an enormous hole in the game plan.

Zach can still get it done. Just don't have as much room for mistakes as we used to.

Improve the OL. Stop fumbling the ball. There has to be a way to accomplish that between now and November '25.

[TBURGESS]

I wouldn't rule out our team making the cup as the crossover team(!)

Toronto's in 3rd in the east, they have a game up on us & a win up. They only need to tie our number of wins to get the last playoff spot.

Ya, the message is "we'll Chris Jones your butt because you are dirt and you better play well next week or you'll be next!". 

No, the message WOFO. Win or FO. 

Well that's super easy to answer: after the 2025 home GC season.  Everything revolves around that.

That's why we need to start the rebuild now. Next year everyone will be a year older a year slower a year less capable. The team as it stands will be watching from the stands next year. 

[blue_gold_84]

Zach can still get it done. Just don't have as much room for mistakes as we used to.

Improve the OL. Stop fumbling the ball. There has to be a way to accomplish that between now and November '25.

The uncharacteristic giveaways by vets like Collaros, Demski, etc. have been brutal.

Beefing up the O-line would be a major first step. Getting healthy at key positions would be another, IMO.