Official Game Day Thread - Winnipeg at Toronto July 27, 2024

[Jesse]

https://3downnation.com/2024/07/30/yards-without-points-winnipeg-blue-bombers-can-move-football-but-cant-score-touchdowns/

Interesting article

Hustler brought this up on Winnipeg Sports Talk today. He's going to be talking to the author tomorrow about it.

Nothing surprising when you read it, but ties everything together pretty nicely. Need to fix that OL somehow. Especially prior to next season.

[Pete]

The OLine is a big issue right now, but Buck has to run more play action  and more creative running plays into the mix. Our offence is so predictable often the dline is able to anticipate the play and fill the gaps creating pressure, especially down the middle.
Often the linebackers key on demski and Olivera . If Demski is on the line they just rush the middle. Even a fake handoff to Olivera will give Zac a few seconds.

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

The OLine is a big issue right now, but Buck has to run more play action  and more creative running plays into the mix. Our offence is so predictable often the dline is able to anticipate the play and fill the gaps creating pressure, especially down the middle.
Often the linebackers key on demski and Olivera . If Demski is on the line they just rush the middle. Even a fake handoff to Olivera will give Zac a few seconds.

I haven't read the entire game day thread and won't, but was it ever determined why Buck was working the sideline and not up in the box?

[Stats Junkie]

https://3downnation.com/2024/07/30/yards-without-points-winnipeg-blue-bombers-can-move-football-but-cant-score-touchdowns/

Interesting article

This sounds similar to some of the work I do relating to QB drives.

In July, Zach Collaros was tied for 4th in the CFL (with Mitchell) by advancing the ball 28.0 yards per drive. Collaros ranked 9th in points per drive (1.39) while Bo Levi Mitchell was 2nd in points per drive (2.30)

When it comes to leading TD drives, Collaros is once again well down the list with a TD on 9.8% of drives. Bo Levi Mitchell led the league in July with a TD on 25.0% of his drives.

The big concern is that the Blue Bombers turned the ball over on almost 25% of Collaros' drives in July.



For reference:
Since 2004 - the average CFL drive is 25.0 yards (30.0 or higher is elite level)
Since 2004 - the CFL average is 1.57 points per drive (2.00 or higher is elite level)
Since 2004 - a TD is scored on 15.6% of all drives (20% or better is elite)

[TecnoGenius]

You're grasping at serious straws.
[...]
it seems ridiculous to comb through footage and try and find "errors" when these are the same refs as last year and the three before that.

No, I was simply rewatching like normal and noticed a blocker cutting down our kick-rusher's legs.  And my brain automatically went "isn't that illegal"?  And shared it with the forum after looking it up, because it is illegal, and would have put the kick 10Y back past the 40 and possibly led to a miss.  IF MOS, the blocked player, or any WFC guy in any booth had noticed!

One, I have never seen an illegal block called like that at the line of scrimmage on a field goal. Not this year. Not ever.

You didn't read my whole post.  It's a brand new rule this season!  The reason you've never seen it is because this is probably the first time this season some doorknob way outside the box (TEs) has tried to destroy a rusher's shins/knees!

Two, even if your interpretation is correct (and I don't think it is) who cares what the rule says, that's a normal football play.

Then tell MOS and the rule-makers of the CFL to stop adding these player safety rules.  It's either a foul or not.  If it's a foul by rule, get our 10Y and maybe win the game.

Hey, I agree with you that all these tacked-on player safety rules are a bit lame, but the CFL has been heading this way for a decade now, so are we surprised?

We're not getting calls and we're losing football games because we aren't a very good team this year. That's the reality

I can agree with that, if you append a suffix of "yet".

[TecnoGenius]

When blitz is clearly coming, (second half) bombers O did not seem to realize it and dump it off. Zach dropped back. Looking downfield.

When Argos started blitzing, game was over. Between Zach and buck, that is a bit surprising.

It was worse than that!  Many of those Neuf/Eli busts (which were the worst aspect of the OL that game) were against the normal 4-man DL rush!  Holy smokes it was bad.  And doubly worse, they were almost never stunting on those.  It was just straight swim moves or jukes and vwoom, right past Neuf/Eli.

Triply worse, most OL mistakes caused a Zach hit.  Just one was a mere pressures and a throwaway or early/errant pass.  Most were actual wham-bam-Zach's-counting-lambs.

[TecnoGenius]

That type of play is slow developing. Could it be because he knows he doesn't have time to look for option 2?

Ya, but the way it transpired (and probably set up), both Pokey and Woli would be reaching their respective corners at nearly the same time.

Zach was staring down the middle and right routes hard (a flaw of his).  He needs to at least give a peripheral glance to the other reads!  We've seen this a few times this season where other guys were the easier/open pass, but they don't even get seen because Zach is locked in on the double/triple-covered #1 read.

Just think how Zach could torch FSs for a game by just staring down the decoy read then snapping the pass off to the real target.  FSs have learned to ignore the other reads and just cheat to the side Zach is looking.  That's why whenever we get near the EZ we have 2 or 3 defenders around our pass target.

[Sir Blue and Gold]

You didn't read my whole post.  It's a brand new rule this season!  The reason you've never seen it is because this is probably the first time this season some doorknob way outside the box (TEs) has tried to destroy a rusher's shins/knees!

I read your whole post. That's why I said I haven't seen it called this year or any year. Since it's brand new, how do you know your interpretation is correct? Even from the screenshot it looks like the block is basically happening along the LOS near where the tight end would have been. I highly, highly doubt the rules committee was trying to get this play out of the game. There is nothing wrong with it.

[Jesse]

This sounds similar to some of the work I do relating to QB drives.

In July, Zach Collaros was tied for 4th in the CFL (with Mitchell) by advancing the ball 28.0 yards per drive. Collaros ranked 9th in points per drive (1.39) while Bo Levi Mitchell was 2nd in points per drive (2.30)

When it comes to leading TD drives, Collaros is once again well down the list with a TD on 9.8% of drives. Bo Levi Mitchell led the league in July with a TD on 25.0% of his drives.

The big concern is that the Blue Bombers turned the ball over on almost 25% of Collaros' drives in July.



For reference:
Since 2004 - the average CFL drive is 25.0 yards (30.0 or higher is elite level)
Since 2004 - the CFL average is 1.57 points per drive (2.00 or higher is elite level)
Since 2004 - a TD is scored on 15.6% of all drives (20% or better is elite)

It really does seem similar! Zach is right up there with yards per drive. But the points are way down.

[theaardvark]

I've oft heard commentators, especially ex Olinemen, say that if they called holding by the book, there'd be a flag on almost every play.

Not sure how they adjudicate what to call or when, but it seems that the self same issue is coming up with PI and RTP.  Seems to be a subjective component which does not seem to favour our team in the least.

[markf]

It was worse than that!  Many of those Neuf/Eli busts (which were the worst aspect of the OL that game) were against the normal 4-man DL rush!  Holy smokes it was bad.  And doubly worse, they were almost never stunting on those.  It was just straight swim moves or jukes and vwoom, right past Neuf/Eli.

Triply worse, most OL mistakes caused a Zach hit.  Just one was a mere pressures and a throwaway or early/errant pass.  Most were actual wham-bam-Zach's-counting-lambs.

Yes. Almost like the blitzing got it started, then wasn't needed after that.

It's odd that zach had time first half,,then didn't second half.

argos changed something, Bombers did not adjust.

[TecnoGenius]

Yes. Almost like the blitzing got it started, then wasn't needed after that.

It's odd that zach had time first half,,then didn't second half.

argos changed something, Bombers did not adjust.

They were already getting through to Zach in Q2.  Q2 and Q3 were awful for OL, Q1 and Q4 were near spotless.  TOR adjusted quickly after no pressure in Q1, and we couldn't counter the pressure until Q4.  They were faster at adjusting than we were, which doesn't surprise me.

However, we did adjust in Q4, so Buck et al get credit for that.

[TecnoGenius]

Not sure how they adjudicate what to call or when, but it seems that the self same issue is coming up with PI and RTP.  Seems to be a subjective component which does not seem to favour our team in the least.

Yes and yes.  However, holding calls haven't been egregiously bad and changing game outcomes like DPI have been this season.  And usually with holds it's not the called ones that are bad/wrong (like you said, every snap has a hold), it's the egregious ones they let slide and the opponent QB gets a 50Y TD on you: those are the ones that sting.

We must be careful we don't give the refs any ideas to make our games worse!

[TecnoGenius]

Even from the screenshot it looks like the block is basically happening along the LOS near where the tight end would have been. I highly, highly doubt the rules committee was trying to get this play out of the game. There is nothing wrong with it.

To me the "TE position" isn't the "last guy on the line", it's the (optional) 3rd guy out from the C on either side who is tight to the box (not wide out).  This is my interpretation, and I'm open to correction here.  The rule book is completely silent on what a TE or "TE position" is(!), even though they use those words in this new rule.

You're saying that TE is "last guy on the line".  If you are correct, then the play in question is not a penalty.  And if you're right, given a FG line formation usually is 5-LS-4 (sides can be swapped), does that mean the 5 side alone has 2 "TEs"?  That's not how I understand it.

However, I'm pretty sure the spirit of the rule is to define what the "box" is and change what is legal in and outside of that box.  There are other rules that reference the idea of this "box" (though the term isn't used as such).

[J5V]

We must be careful we don't give the refs any ideas to make our games worse!

football is a game played with emotion and on the edge. The best officials in any league find and establish the balance and then let the teams play. We're not seeing that at all and I'm not sure how to do what you propose. If you're consistently finding yourself on the wrong end of the officiating scale you're kinda hooped.