Jefferson is back

[Sir Blue and Gold]

Schoen is scramble king, Lawler is 50/50 ball guy.  Each brings a particular set of skills.  Collaros needs every tool in the box...

Different strengths but are both number one receivers and will/should be paid as such. The only question is can we afford the luxury of two number one guys. Hopefully, but there will be a cost elsewhere if we do.

[blue_or_die]

Loving the receiver talk in the Jefferson thread 

[Pete]

Ya, that's what I thought.  (Hey, the cfl player stats are finally back up!  Haha, they finally get them going now that most fans don't really need them as much because the season is over.  LOL)

So White joined in 2021, was likely still on ELC in 2022.  So does anyone know what his payday was in FA23?  That would be a great comp for Schoen.  White was kind of a phenom too, in 2022, and was a weekly WR fantasy favorite.  But White was on the clear uptrend into his big FA...

Whereas (confirming now) Schoen had a down year in his 2nd year: yards down by ~20%, TDs down bigly by nearly half; but 2 GP less.  I think what stood out most during 23 was that much lower TD production.  Teams really focused on what Schoen and Zach were doing and stopped those breakout explosions.  Schoen was getting a lot more of the "traditional" yards and TDs instead of those magical/impossible ones.  Anyhow, my main point is going into FA you want your current year to be better than your previous year (barring major IR time off).

My gut says Schoen should make more than White signed for last year, as he is marginally better (my hot-take, and stats-wise), but not by much.  If White made bank >$200k then I guess that's what Schoen will get (+$20k).  If White was retained in HAM for ~$150k, then there you go.

White signed for 200-220 with bonuses

[dd]

Loving the receiver talk in the Jefferson thread 

Hey willow started off as a reciever so it?s related!!

[TecnoGenius]

That "much lower TD production" was in two less games and still led the league and was with Kenny on the other side taking looks. It really seems like you're trying to talk yourself into believing he'll be paid low enough for us to keep him.

On reflection, you are very likely correct.  I was doing too much hopium when crafting my prior argument. 

Hard to say the range of offers Schoen will receive but I believe anything over $200k will force Walters to bow out of the bidding, and he will probably accept that as his compromise for signing Lawler, with the gratitude that he received two very good years from Schoen on a rookie salary.  Like losing Chungh, Couture, Desjarlais, Lawler, Stove and Sayles previously, it's the price Walters pays for building a team loaded with talented players.  There will be attrition because he simply can't hang onto them all.

This is an awesome take, and I may need to start accepting that, and seeing the bright side.  Schoen-level production on ELC was gravy bliss.  Same thing MTL is experiencing now with Mack.  By its very nature it must be a temporary thing.

We've lost the big names before, shed a tear, and moved on to keep winning.  That puts the onus back on the scouts to "do it again"!  I guess a minor consolation if we lose Schoen is that as good as he was, he wasn't the part of the grand puzzle that put us over the top to win the most important game... (yet?)

[TecnoGenius]

Loving the receiver talk in the Jefferson thread 

Sorry!  My bad.  Though slightly related as Willie's big $$ signing partially impacts what $$ we'll have leftover for star WRs.

For penance here's a Willie J presser link that hasn't been mentioned yet?
https://www.bluebombers.com/2023/12/05/willie-jefferson-re-signing-media-december-5-2023/

A great interview.  I like him more every day.  I love how he's also pitching being with the WFC to his fellow (and/or future) team mates.  This matters to players who are definitely watching this!

Hey willow started off as a reciever so it?s related!!

Who signed Willow as a receiver (see the 1988 movie)?  Not a smart move for a GM. 

[TecnoGenius]

White signed for 200-220 with bonuses

Thanks, that's useful info.  Comparable to pre-300k-EDM or not, it does make a starting basis on our Schoen guesses.  Sounds a bit high, but then again HAM had just shed Addison and Acklin, so was flush with WR SMS$$.

[theaardvark]

tim white when he signed ly had been in the league 2 years so a good comp for Schoen.

Was Tim White ROY, and the top receiver in the league?  Schoen has 8 more TD's in 2 years than White in 3... 4 more yards per catch average... and shared targets with 2 other top 12 rec's in the league, White was the main target.  So not really a good comp...

[dd]

Was Tim White ROY, and the top receiver in the league?  Schoen has 8 more TD's in 2 years than White in 3... 4 more yards per catch average... and shared targets with 2 other top 12 rec's in the league, White was the main target.  So not really a good comp...

If Tim white had Zack Collaros throwing him the ball instead of the misfits in Hamilton god only knows what his stats would be. Tim white is worth every penny of $200-220k, he was Hamilton?s only bonafide offensive threat

[TecnoGenius]

Was Tim White ROY, and the top receiver in the league?  Schoen has 8 more TD's in 2 years than White in 3... 4 more yards per catch average... and shared targets with 2 other top 12 rec's in the league, White was the main target.  So not really a good comp...

White's 1st season was shared with very good receiving talent in HAM.  Even his year 2 was.  Guys like Dunbar, Acklin, Addison.  They all shared targets (I know, I always had the very tough choice of Dunbar or White in fantasy each week).  It was only in 2023 when HAM shed all their good receivers that White was alone out there as the only star receiver.  And he suffered for it because they just double-teamed him to force HAM to throw to the newer/lesser guys.

White had a better year 2 than year 1, so that's probably why he was passed over for ROY.  Schoen was kind of the opposite.  However, you can't compare HAM on the clear downtrend in 2022 to WPG stuck at their peak on the plateau.  dd is right: White would have had even better stats here in WPG.

But we really can't diminish White: after his year 1 and year 2 he was a very desired WR, and looked to be one of the next top receivers.  So yes, kind of like Schoen.  White still could be if he wasn't stuck in a downtrend team.  What will Schoen look like if he bails for a downtrend or basement-dwelling team too?  As I always say: Ask Kenny how that turns out.

Lastly, didn't we have White here in a TC/PS one year??  Got a PS TD?  My buddy has that ball he threw into the stands.  Or was that another White?  There are a lot of them.

[TecnoGenius]

Bottom line:
300 Kenny
225 Demski
130 Bailey
120 Woli
300 Schoen?
===
1075k$

No way we can pay our starting R's over (or anywhere near) 1 million.  Feel free to adjust my $ guesses as your better info allows, but it probably comes out to something similar.

If Schoen stays for $200k, that's still $1M and we still can't afford it.  Thus Schoen will have to be $160-ish.  And even then it'll be tight!

Maybe we can squeeze out some more if we shed Bailey to gamble on a rookie ELC.  That gives us 40 more to give Schoen to get him closer to 200.  And none of this factors in the big payday Brady is going to need/get.

Being cap-heavy on WR corps didn't win us either GC, so maybe we should change our approach?  Shift more $ to D, and be more rookie-laden on O like MTL was... Not saying this is what I want (I like Bailey), but maybe a bigger shakeup than usual is needed?  That's why KW gets the big bucks.

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

Bottom line:
300 Kenny
225 Demski
130 Bailey
120 Woli
300 Schoen?
===
1075k$

No way we can pay our starting R's over (or anywhere near) 1 million.  Feel free to adjust my $ guesses as your better info allows, but it probably comes out to something similar.

If Schoen stays for $200k, that's still $1M and we still can't afford it.  Thus Schoen will have to be $160-ish.  And even then it'll be tight!

Maybe we can squeeze out some more if we shed Bailey to gamble on a rookie ELC.  That gives us 40 more to give Schoen to get him closer to 200.  And none of this factors in the big payday Brady is going to need/get.

Being cap-heavy on WR corps didn't win us either GC, so maybe we should change our approach?  Shift more $ to D, and be more rookie-laden on O like MTL was... Not saying this is what I want (I like Bailey), but maybe a bigger shakeup than usual is needed?  That's why KW gets the big bucks.

I believe Demski signed for around $180k, Bailey I would guess $115k and Woli maybe 105k, still not enough money left in the pot for Schoen who's ask is going to be above $200k.

[Jesse]

Bottom line:
300 Kenny
225 Demski
130 Bailey
120 Woli
300 Schoen?
===
1075k$

No way we can pay our starting R's over (or anywhere near) 1 million.  Feel free to adjust my $ guesses as your better info allows, but it probably comes out to something similar.

The only thing I'll say on behalf of keeping Schoen is that the salary cap isn't that simple.

Walters can re-negotiate with Kenny, can give Schoen a signing bonus that puts part of his contract on the 2023 budget line (if room), you can cut another veteran and commit to a minimum contract somewhere. You can spread out the deal with more money coming in later years (including some guaranteed money). There are options.

[Pete]

Bottom line:
300 Kenny
225 Demski
130 Bailey
120 Woli
300 Schoen?
===
1075k$

No way we can pay our starting R's over (or anywhere near) 1 million.  Feel free to adjust my $ guesses as your better info allows, but it probably comes out to something similar.

If Schoen stays for $200k, that's still $1M and we still can't afford it.  Thus Schoen will have to be $160-ish.  And even then it'll be tight!

Maybe we can squeeze out some more if we shed Bailey to gamble on a rookie ELC.  That gives us 40 more to give Schoen to get him closer to 200.  And none of this factors in the big payday Brady is going to need/get.

Being cap-heavy on WR corps didn't win us either GC, so maybe we should change our approach?  Shift more $ to D, and be more rookie-laden on O like MTL was... Not saying this is what I want (I like Bailey), but maybe a bigger shakeup than usual is needed?  That's why KW gets the big bucks.

I agree under the current structure but Is that right about Demski ? He made 175 k ly and due a bump this year but I thought it was more like 190k

I could see us renegotiating Lawler to look as follows;
Bottom line:
250 Kenny
195 Demsk
Bailey we replace with rookie at 85k
120 Woli
200 Schoen
=850k
other than this I dont see us retaining both Lawler and Schoen

[TecnoGenius]

Thanks for all the other numbers guesses.  I knew I was close-ish but probably not bang on.  In any event we are looking at roughly the same final total.  And we all seem to agree finding a way to make it work for the WR corps will be very difficult.

Getting back to Willie... Since I'm pretty sure we can't "improve" our WR corps this year, and we shouldn't need to as it's the best group in the CFL, that means the 2024 "puzzle" probably is on D.  If our D made 1-2 more stops in the 4th Q of the GC, we win that GC.  I'm not blaming any D guy specifically, as I think the plays that were made were just great O plays that couldn't be defended easily.  But I think if we make any surprising moves, it'll be D.  And it could even be "big name" guys we let go.

I could also see us considering ST coverage / blocking as a puzzle piece.  It was very good in the GC, and I'm thrilled about that, but everyone was moaning about it the rest of the season.  And since you can make moves on ST NATs without costing much, I could see some changes.  Maybe more oldster movement out and more spots for the newest guys like the "other" Hallett.  I'm pretty sure you keep Gauthier, though: every season he saves our bacon a few times.  Maybe we let Briggs walk?  Question mark Miller will have to be resolved...

I just don't see any other pieces we need to address, unless you're one of the guys who hates certain OLers.  Or we get hit with more than the usual 1-2 $FA-defectors$.