Jefferson is back

[ModAdmin]

Good article on Willie Jefferson's thoughts about re-signing, living in Winnipeg, his legacy and Winnipeg fan support...

"We've built something amazing here in Winnipeg" - Ed Tait

...."When I first came into the CFL in 2014, with Edmonton - gold teeth, Southside fade - I just wanted to make a team, be on a team for a year. I just wanted to stick, make plays. I wanted to get back to the NFL. Now, I couldn't care less about the NFL. I love seeing young guys make a name for themselves, make plays, get paid in the CFL, when they haven't had the opportunity (elsewhere). But if they have the opportunity to go down south to the NFL and make a name for themselves, put the CFL on the map even more than what it is, I enjoy that."

and...

"We're trying to build something special. The culture here is great. The atmosphere here is great. The fans are great. The organization is wonderful. I'm just happy we were able to get the deal done. No dilly-dally, no hesitations. I knew what I wanted, and the team was ready to give me everything I wanted plus a little bit more. I'm happy. I'm satisfied....."

[Jesse]

He's not worth $300k.

Schoen, to my eyes and memory without looking at any stats, had a bit of a sophomore slump.  Teams figured out his/Zach's 2022 scramble magic and made sure he wasn't open in that same way this season.

Schoen is not the best route runner.  He's not that fast.  He doesn't make the circus catches like Kenny/Lewis/Mack.  He was mostly invisible in the GC.  In fact, both GCs!

What Schoen does do well is: know the QB and what he wants, knows the scramble drill and how to get open, can take punishment and hold on and get back up, is very smart, what he's not "best" at (above) he is decent/good at.

Bingo.  Everything you said is truth.  A team would have to be crazy to offer him >$225k.  He may, MAY, get $200k offers, and we'd probably offer him $160k tops.  We might offer more, except we totally can't afford it with Kenny.  Why not offer Schoen a lower $150 on a 3-year with auto-bumps of $25k/year + performance?  (But with no vet guarantee so we can cut if underperforming.)

If you asked me at this moment, do you take Kenny at $280k or Schoen at $160k, I'd be hard-pressed to answer, but would likely take Schoen.  If you say Kenny $250 and Schoen $200 then I'm taking Kenny all day long.  If their prices are anywhere close, I'm taking Kenny all the way.  But Kenny needs to re-prove himself by playing a full and impactful year in 2024.

Schoen has over 2600 yards and 26 TDs in the past two seasons. Pretty sure that's far and away tops in the the league.

You know which other player matched Dalton's production in his "down year"? No one.

[TecnoGenius]

Schoen has over 2600 yards and 26 TDs in the past two seasons. Pretty sure that's far and away tops in the the league.

You know which other player matched Dalton's production in his "down year"? No one.

But was I right about his "sophomore slump"?  You gave the 2-yr stats, now maybe break it down.

Pete is almost certainly right: how much of the success is Schoen and how much is Zach/Buck?  What would he look like taking balls from Tre Ford and some rando OC?  Maybe the same... but would you bet huge SMS money on it?

How much are you paying Schoen, and what hard choices are you making if you can only budget $400k on the 2 receivers (Kenny/Schoen)... And what about the lack of circus?  I've never once seen Schoen dive for a catch.  There's no Dressler or Flyin' Hawaiian in Schoen.  How many gumby Kenny catches?  Ya, none.  Ladder-climbing astounders?  Nada.  In the GC, did he make the tough game-winning catches like Mack made?

Schoen is amazing and a phenom and no one is saying otherwise.  He's an amazing talent that we all want to keep here and cheer on for many years.  He has all the great qualities I listed in my last post.  But is he worthy of being a top-5 $$ CFL receiver??  CFL history says no.  The guys that get top dollar can make the circus catch (Lewis/Kenny) or beat everyone on routes (Milt).  That's not Schoen.  At least not yet...

[dd]

DS is the scramble drill king by far and above. He's a possession receiver, he catches what is thrown to him in traffic, takes the hits and keeps on going....a modern day Rocky Dipietro. He won't outrun anyone, but he's decently thick and rugged enough to take the pounding in the middle, mind you, he was injured when it mattered most this season...

[Jesse]

But was I right about his "sophomore slump"?  You gave the 2-yr stats, now maybe break it down.

Pete is almost certainly right: how much of the success is Schoen and how much is Zach/Buck?  What would he look like taking balls from Tre Ford and some rando OC?  Maybe the same... but would you bet huge SMS money on it?

How much are you paying Schoen, and what hard choices are you making if you can only budget $400k on the 2 receivers (Kenny/Schoen)... And what about the lack of circus?  I've never once seen Schoen dive for a catch.  There's no Dressler or Flyin' Hawaiian in Schoen.  How many gumby Kenny catches?  Ya, none.  Ladder-climbing astounders?  Nada.  In the GC, did he make the tough game-winning catches like Mack made?

Schoen is amazing and a phenom and no one is saying otherwise.  He's an amazing talent that we all want to keep here and cheer on for many years.  He has all the great qualities I listed in my last post.  But is he worthy of being a top-5 $$ CFL receiver??  CFL history says no.  The guys that get top dollar can make the circus catch (Lewis/Kenny) or beat everyone on routes (Milt).  That's not Schoen.  At least not yet...

You're creating this narrative in your head and trying to force it into reality again. Tell me how CFL history does not pay a guy who is the most productive receiver in the league. Point to any other guy that averaged over 1300 yards and 13 TDs and was top called/paid like a top 5 player at his position.

I wouldn't want to make the decision between the two receivers. I personally trust Schoen a lot more. For all Kenny's talents, he's never put it together for a full season.

[theaardvark]

Schoen is scramble king, Lawler is 50/50 ball guy.  Each brings a particular set of skills.  Collaros needs every tool in the box...

[dd]

Lawler is a 50/50 ball guy who lost the most important 50/50 ball this season in the grey cup, we ve got to sign schoen as he?s our production guy/moves the sticks. Him being hurt in the grey cup gave us a glimpse of what our receiving corps looks like without him and it ain?t a good look

[theaardvark]

Lawler is a 50/50 ball guy who lost the most important 50/50 ball this season in the grey cup, we ve got to sign schoen as he?s our production guy/moves the sticks. Him being hurt in the grey cup gave us a glimpse of what our receiving corps looks like without him and it ain?t a good look

Weird thing, a good 50/50 guy is going to miss 4 out of 10 50/50 balls.... it sucks that one of those 4 was at that important time.

[Pete]

You're creating this narrative in your head and trying to force it into reality again. Tell me how CFL history does not pay a guy who is the most productive receiver in the league. Point to any other guy that averaged over 1300 yards and 13 TDs and was top called/paid like a top 5 player at his position.

I wouldn't want to make the decision between the two receivers. I personally trust Schoen a lot more. For all Kenny's talents, he's never put it together for a full season.

Tim white, Steve Dunbar, Begeleton, Rhymes are all in that 180-220 range last year coming off decent seasons, which is where i see Shoen ending up.The two outliers were Lawler and Lewis.

[TecnoGenius]

You're creating this narrative in your head and trying to force it into reality again. Tell me how CFL history does not pay a guy who is the most productive receiver in the league. Point to any other guy that averaged over 1300 yards and 13 TDs and was top called/paid like a top 5 player at his position.

I wouldn't want to make the decision between the two receivers. I personally trust Schoen a lot more. For all Kenny's talents, he's never put it together for a full season.

Well, it won't take long to find out if the narrative is right... We'll just wait to see what Schoen gets paid (not whisper offers, but *paid*, as in takes the job).  If it's over $250k then I'll eat crow.  If it's over $200k, I'll have egg on my face.  Under $200k then I'm more right than wrong.  If we get him for $160-ish, then that's bang on the money of what I'd expect we can afford.

Personally I'm still not sold on Schoen for big money vs Kenny for big money.  I think Kenny has more heart invested with the WFC.  The interviews with Schoen & his parents hint that the real goal is NFL, and that usually means a player will hop to whatever CFL team can give him the best shot of furthering that goal.

Tim white, Steve Dunbar, Begeleton, Rhymes are all in that 180-220 range last year coming off decent seasons, which is where i see Shoen ending up.The two outliers were Lawler and Lewis.

And that brings up a great point... yes, the guys you list are kind of the class that Schoen is in... however, all of those guys have been in the league, and been great, for many many years.  I guess White is the "newest" of the bunch and he's been in the league for 1-2 more than Schoen?  Even though most of those guys showed great promise in year 1 & 2, they didn't command big $$ until later.  Most receivers, even great ones, don't get top-5-CFL-$ on their first FA contract.  Can anyone name one that did?

Maybe KW (and other GMs) will spell that out to him... "We just can't pay a 3rd year guy the same $ as Kenny or Lewis"; "bide your time, you'll be top-5-$ in a couple more years."

Pete is right: Schoen is part of that ~$200k range of receiver at best, and I think he gets paid even less because he hasn't been here as long and isn't fully proven.  If someone said Begelton@180 or Schoen@250, I'm taking Begelton in a heartbeat.  (He'd be amazing here with Zach, but he's a CGY-for-lifer.)

Lastly, Mack will present the exact same problem in the subsequent FA because he's clearly talented, but will also lack seniority and a long-term proven record.  But at least Mack can make the circus catches...

[Pete]

tim white when he signed ly had been in the league 2 years so a good comp for Schoen.

[TecnoGenius]

tim white when he signed ly had been in the league 2 years so a good comp for Schoen.

Ya, that's what I thought.  (Hey, the cfl player stats are finally back up!  Haha, they finally get them going now that most fans don't really need them as much because the season is over.  LOL)

So White joined in 2021, was likely still on ELC in 2022.  So does anyone know what his payday was in FA23?  That would be a great comp for Schoen.  White was kind of a phenom too, in 2022, and was a weekly WR fantasy favorite.  But White was on the clear uptrend into his big FA...

Whereas (confirming now) Schoen had a down year in his 2nd year: yards down by ~20%, TDs down bigly by nearly half; but 2 GP less.  I think what stood out most during 23 was that much lower TD production.  Teams really focused on what Schoen and Zach were doing and stopped those breakout explosions.  Schoen was getting a lot more of the "traditional" yards and TDs instead of those magical/impossible ones.  Anyhow, my main point is going into FA you want your current year to be better than your previous year (barring major IR time off).

My gut says Schoen should make more than White signed for last year, as he is marginally better (my hot-take, and stats-wise), but not by much.  If White made bank >$200k then I guess that's what Schoen will get (+$20k).  If White was retained in HAM for ~$150k, then there you go.

[Jesse]

This 300k receiver thing only starter when Lawler went to Edmonton a couple years ago (after his second year in the league). We were all still reeling from Lucky getting to the 200k mark a year or two earlier and then Edmonton resets the market again. Geno then gets the same last season.

I don't think it's reasonable to use contract comparisons from before the market explosion to predict Schoen's value. Especially when none of those players have half of his TD production.

I think what stood out most during 23 was that much lower TD production. 

That "much lower TD production" was in two less games and still led the league and was with Kenny on the other side taking looks. It really seems like you're trying to talk yourself into believing he'll be paid low enough for us to keep him.

I am really hoping he's the guy who gets talked into staying on a team-friendly deal, but I don't expect it. There is no reason to think he's not in the Lawler/Geno pay scale. He just flat out out-produces them.

[blue_gold_84]

Imagine trying to claim Schoen had a sophomore slump. LOL

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

This 300k receiver thing only starter when Lawler went to Edmonton a couple years ago (after his second year in the league). We were all still reeling from Lucky getting to the 200k mark a year or two earlier and then Edmonton resets the market again. Geno then gets the same last season.

I don't think it's reasonable to use contract comparisons from before the market explosion to predict Schoen's value. Especially when none of those players have half of his TD production.

That "much lower TD production" was in two less games and still led the league and was with Kenny on the other side taking looks. It really seems like you're trying to talk yourself into believing he'll be paid low enough for us to keep him.

I am really hoping he's the guy who gets talked into staying on a team-friendly deal, but I don't expect it. There is no reason to think he's not in the Lawler/Geno pay scale. He just flat out out-produces them.

So far only two GM's have gone along with the concept that top receivers are worth paying $250k+, Jones and Walters, the other GM's may not have bought in yet. Paying one receiver a large chunk of the positional budget when there are 4 other receivers on the field forces compromises.  Jones had a low QB budget as an excuse when he first signed Lawler and again with Lewis, Walters has a veteran laden team with many players at the top of their pay scale, so his sacrifices are more difficult to make.

Hard to say the range of offers Schoen will receive but I believe anything over $200k will force Walters to bow out of the bidding, and he will probably accept that as his compromise for signing Lawler, with the gratitude that he received two very good years from Schoen on a rookie salary.  Like losing Chungh, Couture, Desjarlais, Lawler, Stove and Sayles previously, it's the price Walters pays for building a team loaded with talented players.  There will be attrition because he simply can't hang onto them all.