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Author Topic: Information on a Reduced Season [UPD: 2020 Season Officially Cancelled]  (Read 10322 times)
Sir Blue and Gold
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« Reply #45 on: July 21, 2020, 10:17:14 PM »

Sir Blue and Gold how is it you are always so negative? 

I'm not being negative. I am just not on the hype train for a six game season (for reasons stated above). I'll still watch it happily if it goes that way. Just adding what seems to be a difference of opinion to the majority here. I'll add another for consideration:

There will absolutely be players (and possibly coaches/coordinators) who test positive upon arriving here. That will likely mean those players miss (most or all?) of training camp and depending on timing, even the first week of the season. What if that player is a starting QB? A head coach? That's a pretty big competitive disadvantage especially considering one game is 16% of the season. One of the concerns the league must have is the legitimacy of the product and if you have a few situations like that, the "season" isn't going to be taken very seriously by some.

I suppose what I'm saying is the best case scenario is teams play a few games and someone wins the Grey Cup with an * beside it. Worst case it's a disaster with players refusing to participate, others having to quarantine mid-season, no fans in the stands and even a team pulling out due to an outbreak (two MLS teams had to pull out of their restructured season). There's a lot of risk here for a "season" that's probably going to be government funded and will likely lose money besides.

« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 10:25:32 PM by Sir Blue and Gold » Logged
PloenFan
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« Reply #46 on: July 21, 2020, 10:17:42 PM »

Six game, 12 game, 18 game season doesn't matter- the Bombers will win the Grey Cup anyway !  Cheesy
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GOLDMEMBER
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« Reply #47 on: July 21, 2020, 10:40:32 PM »

I'm not being negative. I am just not on the hype train for a six game season (for reasons stated above). I'll still watch it happily if it goes that way. Just adding what seems to be a difference of opinion to the majority here. I'll add another for consideration:

There will absolutely be players (and possibly coaches/coordinators) who test positive upon arriving here. That will likely mean those players miss (most or all?) of training camp and depending on timing, even the first week of the season. What if that player is a starting QB? A head coach? That's a pretty big competitive disadvantage especially considering one game is 16% of the season. One of the concerns the league must have is the legitimacy of the product and if you have a few situations like that, the "season" isn't going to be taken very seriously by some.

I suppose what I'm saying is the best case scenario is teams play a few games and someone wins the Grey Cup with an * beside it. Worst case it's a disaster with players refusing to participate, others having to quarantine mid-season, no fans in the stands and even a team pulling out due to an outbreak (two MLS teams had to pull out of their restructured season). There's a lot of risk here for a "season" that's probably going to be government funded and will likely lose money besides.


yup it might reality but Dallas FC pulled out because of the situation in general in Texas not because of an over run roster.
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DM83
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« Reply #48 on: July 21, 2020, 10:50:59 PM »

Sir Blue and Gold,
Your posts and opinions are always thought provoking, and usually well thought out.

Pallister just announced there will be no 14'day quarantine for those Americans coming in.  Secondly, a. Couple of the TWELVE new cases are from travellers....yikes.....

Now that makes me really worried.  No quarantine!  I think they should keep that for three more weeks until phase five comes in.
I usually vacation in Phoenix,  at Xmas....lol! I am really thinking I don't want to fly there.

Plus if they open the border to air traffic, why is it closed to Car traffic???

Your points, are all strong possibilities.
I mean. If I am Zac Collaros, do I want to come, and expose myself to guys who haven't been quarantined? For a couple months??? Maybe?? Is it More beneficial to leave the 212 new Covid cases found today in Ont?

I guess if the Jets are willing to come up here for a month, and then be off for another couple of months, the CFL boys can.

Again, your points of contention, are great causes for concern.  Maybe the vaccine. By Phyzzer will be ready by Aug. 31.Huh
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« Reply #49 on: July 21, 2020, 10:59:42 PM »

Bob Irving
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Winnipeg officially chosen as CFL hub city, IF games are played. Obvious choice from day one. Wade Miller's work is rewarded.  Now it's up to the players assoc. and CFL to make it happen.
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GOLDMEMBER
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« Reply #50 on: July 22, 2020, 01:40:26 AM »

Bob Irving
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Winnipeg officially chosen as CFL hub city, IF games are played. Obvious choice from day one. Wade Miller's work is rewarded.  Now it's up to the players assoc. and CFL to make it happen.
eat it once again RoughRiders, lol.
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TecnoGenius
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« Reply #51 on: July 22, 2020, 07:02:19 AM »

Is it better than nothing? I'm not so sure. Instead of throwing a bunch of CFL and government money (and time and energy) at playing this year (considering the points above), I'd rather they put it towards a more substantial kick start next year. Marketing. Bands. Etc. We may need the extra money to play next year too.

Ok, but, again, say the situation hasn't changed by April 2021.  Say there's no vaccine.  Say people are still getting sick and dying at around the same rate as now (Canada/US-wide).  This is entirely possible.  As I stated ages ago, there's never been a successful vaccine for any coronavirus.  If we don't get a vaccine (that works), and CV-19 carries on for 3 years before natural burnout, like the Spanish Flu, then we're talking 2023+ as the first "back to normal" year.

I'm not saying this is probable, but it's entirely possible.  If it was a longshot odds bet (like 20-1), I'd put some money on it.

Wouldn't you agree that in that case we should just start playing in 2020 because the whole idea of "waiting till next year" buys you nothing?

Now that makes me really worried.  No quarantine!  I think they should keep that for three more weeks until phase five comes in.

The technology exists for same/next-day covid test results if CFL wants to invest the money.  Test everyone as they enter the "hub" and if anyone is infected, they are ejected same/next day.  Repeat every day at first, then maybe every 4-5 days.  F1 is testing everyone in the "biosphere" every 5 days.

It can be done with no quarantine.

The odds of a fit young CFL player having covid in the first place is pretty low.  USA has had 4M cases out of 330M.  That's 1.2% of Amercians (known) having had it.  That's a hard fact.  Let's say it started Apr 1 (to simplify), and assume it's Aug 1 now, and assume cases last 2 weeks.  That's roughly 8 2-week periods of heavy covid.  Take the 4M and divide by 8.  That means in any given 2 week period 0.15% of the USA is (known) infected.  Let's say 5X that are really infected but don't know it.  That's 0.75% infected any given 2 week period.

So if you have 1000 players and staff/support going into a hub green zone raw odds say 8 will be infected.  But the visibly sick will be screened out before they ever get on a plane.  That should knock it down another 1/5, so say 6 infected.

Ya, I'm guestimating the unknowables like "unknown infected" but it's probably a decent guess to say only a handful will be problematic.  That's why you test every day at first with a rapid-result test.  I think dealing with these numbers is doable especially if all other precautions are taken.

Yes, it sucks if your star QB comes up positive and is shipped home (or quarantined or whatever).  Here's hoping the players whilst at home in the US will be smart with their precautions the 14 days before boarding the plane.
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TBURGESS
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« Reply #52 on: July 22, 2020, 12:34:27 PM »

Young and fit doesn't protect you from Covid.

You can test negative one day and posiitve the next, even if you're under quarantine or inside a bubble.

You can't divide by 2 week periods, because there could be one or more cases in any day of any 2 week period.

If a single player, coach, support staff tests positive, you can't simply remove that one person. Everyone who had contact with them would need to go into 2 week lock down.

Manitoba has done really well fighting Covid, but bringing in 500+ people from places that haven't done as well will likely change the overall results.
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the paw
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« Reply #53 on: July 22, 2020, 01:18:30 PM »





Wouldn't you agree that in that case we should just start playing in 2020 because the whole idea of "waiting till next year" buys you nothing?




Most of your post is the usual hyper-positive, stream of consciousness jag with a bunch of made up numbers thrown in.  But I want to focus on this particular statement.

Waiting until next year, buys us knowledge.  I am talking about both society at large, and the CFL more specifically.  At present, there are a whole bunch of unknowns that will take scientific study to get a better handle on.  For example:

1.  We know that there is some airborne transmission, but we know relatively little about how many people are being infected from sneeze droplets versus just having someone sing or breathe next to them.

2.  We do not know if having the virus gives you immunity from re-infection, and if it does, we don't know how long it lasts. 

3.  We don't know why the virus attacks some people aggressively and not others. 

4.  We don't know if any of the vaccines getting early stage positive results are (a) substantially effective, or (b) entirely safe.  More time will be required to see how that pans out. 

5.  We don't know what the impact of relaxing the 14 day quarantine travel within Canada is going to have.  So far, the more travel, the more cases pop up here. 

These are just the first five that popped into my head, there are many others.  In each example, another 6-9 months of scientific study will give us more information, and allow us to make more informed decisions about risk.

We are probably going to have to learn to live with this virus over the long term, so we will eventually be able to establish a "new normal" which will include sporting events.  But we shouldn't be in a rush to get there just yet. 

The success of any CFL hub season (ignoring for a moment the economic feasibility) will rest entirely on how tight the bubble is, and how rigorously they screen and quarantine players upon entering the bubble.  As TBurg points out, one player tests positive, and the whole thing comes tumbling down pretty easily. 
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grab grass 'n growl
GCn19
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« Reply #54 on: July 22, 2020, 02:12:25 PM »

Most of your post is the usual hyper-positive, stream of consciousness jag with a bunch of made up numbers thrown in.  But I want to focus on this particular statement.

Waiting until next year, buys us knowledge.  I am talking about both society at large, and the CFL more specifically.  At present, there are a whole bunch of unknowns that will take scientific study to get a better handle on.  For example:

1.  We know that there is some airborne transmission, but we know relatively little about how many people are being infected from sneeze droplets versus just having someone sing or breathe next to them.

2.  We do not know if having the virus gives you immunity from re-infection, and if it does, we don't know how long it lasts. 

3.  We don't know why the virus attacks some people aggressively and not others. 

4.  We don't know if any of the vaccines getting early stage positive results are (a) substantially effective, or (b) entirely safe.  More time will be required to see how that pans out. 

5.  We don't know what the impact of relaxing the 14 day quarantine travel within Canada is going to have.  So far, the more travel, the more cases pop up here. 

These are just the first five that popped into my head, there are many others.  In each example, another 6-9 months of scientific study will give us more information, and allow us to make more informed decisions about risk.

We are probably going to have to learn to live with this virus over the long term, so we will eventually be able to establish a "new normal" which will include sporting events.  But we shouldn't be in a rush to get there just yet. 

The success of any CFL hub season (ignoring for a moment the economic feasibility) will rest entirely on how tight the bubble is, and how rigorously they screen and quarantine players upon entering the bubble.  As TBurg points out, one player tests positive, and the whole thing comes tumbling down pretty easily. 

There were reports yesterday that immunity from re-infection may likely only last a few months at most. After 72 days it was found that covid antibodies post infection reduced by 50%. Covid may not be going away for a while as it does not seem that in a worst case scenario that herd immunity is likely to be effective without catastrophically rapid spread.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2020, 02:15:19 PM by GCn19 » Logged

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the paw
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« Reply #55 on: July 22, 2020, 02:55:31 PM »

There were reports yesterday that immunity from re-infection may likely only last a few months at most. After 72 days it was found that covid antibodies post infection reduced by 50%. Covid may not be going away for a while as it does not seem that in a worst case scenario that herd immunity is likely to be effective without catastrophically rapid spread.

Yes, I saw that, a study in England and another in Spain with similar results.  One of the challenges is that because the pandemic is having such a drastic effect on society and economy, a lot of study results are being released before being peer reviewed and without necessarily being replicated.  So I am reluctant to draw any conclusions too quickly, and want to see how they develop in the fullness of time. 

But if I was a betting man, I would agree that herd immunity is not the horse I would be betting on.  I think this is going to be a long haul...
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bunker
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« Reply #56 on: July 23, 2020, 03:52:00 AM »

There were reports yesterday that immunity from re-infection may likely only last a few months at most. After 72 days it was found that covid antibodies post infection reduced by 50%. Covid may not be going away for a while as it does not seem that in a worst case scenario that herd immunity is likely to be effective without catastrophically rapid spread.
You may be right. But immunity to viruses is complicated, involving other parts of the immune system other than antibodies, such as T cells, that are not assessed in antibody studies. For some viruses, we retain immunity even though antibody levels fall.
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/614377/
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DM83
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« Reply #57 on: July 23, 2020, 03:53:13 AM »

Why?

In the last century scientists and inventors have come up with all kinds of unimaginable discoveries.
Vaccine makers had usually a period of five or more years,as there was no urgency to support their work.

However, focusing all the world. On developing a cure/vaccine is certainly within the realm of possibility.its very simple.  How bad  Do you want it?

History has shown the world has Gotten better, not worse at many things.
Now that the pressure is on or the urgency is wanted, look at those vaccine companies. Go.

Phyzzer. Just announce they would. Have something available in a few. Weeks.
Now will it be. The cure all to end. All? Probably not, but they will develop version 2,3,4 etc, just like. The Apple IPhone.

Come on, be realistic.
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TecnoGenius
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« Reply #58 on: July 23, 2020, 06:27:19 AM »

Young and fit doesn't protect you from Covid.

Not catching it, but it's been proven clearly that the death rates (CFR) on young & fit & no co-morbidity people are under 0.1%.  Maybe way under.  I would bet huge money not a single CFL or NFL player will die of covid in all of 2020, unless they had some weird pre-existing condition we didn't know about.

You can test negative one day and posiitve the next, even if you're under quarantine or inside a bubble.

If a single player, coach, support staff tests positive, you can't simply remove that one person. Everyone who had contact with them would need to go into 2 week lock down.

No they wouldn't.  If you get the same-day test machine you can simply retest everyone that day, next day, and then every few days thereafter.

That's the idea of the bubble.  You try hard to not let anyone infected in in the first place.  If someone comes up infected, remove them immediately and start retesting like it's day 1 again.

If there is strict mask protocol then a single infected person in the bubble should not cause a big outbreak.  Again, look at F1, with probably 1000+ people in the "bubble", and they are making it work right now.

Waiting until next year, buys us knowledge.  I am talking about both society at large, and the CFL more specifically.  At present, there are a whole bunch of unknowns that will take scientific study to get a better handle on.  For example:

Those are all great points and questions.  However, a lot of your questions may still be unanswered by April 2021.  And an effective & safe vaccine may not be here either.  I'm not saying that's likely, but it's entirely possible.  By your logic you would wait until we have many/most questions answered, but we may not reach that point for years.  And there will always be new questions.  Do we wait for those too?

What about the fact that the CFL might have a harder time staying alive if we don't play in 2020?  What if the damage to the fanbase of having no 2020 proves irreparable?  We aren't privy to the details, but it seems clear the league thinks it's better off playing vs waiting.  If Ambrosie is trying this hard, it must be important.

In the last century scientists and inventors have come up with all kinds of unimaginable discoveries.
Vaccine makers had usually a period of five or more years,as there was no urgency to support their work.

However, focusing all the world. On developing a cure/vaccine is certainly within the realm of possibility.its very simple.  How bad  Do you want it?

Yes, I have faith in our ability to overcome.  However, billions have been spent trying to find an HIV vaccine for, what, 35 years?  That's a virus as well.  I've outlined it before so I won't rehash, but coronaviruses in general (like SARS) have proven exceptionally tricky to make a vaccine for.  Many SARS trial vaccines caused test subjects to get sicker when they got the virus, not less sick.  Coronaviruses (in general) cause 20-30% of common colds and we all know how well science has been at curing the common cold over, what, 200 years?  And look at the flu vaccine, so hit & miss each year it's questionable that's "successful" too.

We have to accept the possibility that there will be no effective vaccine.  Again, I wouldn't bet against humanity, but it is possible.  That's why we should play now.  If you wait for the "right" time (or worse, the "perfect" time) then we probably won't play for years.
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DM83
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« Reply #59 on: July 23, 2020, 08:12:00 AM »

Lol!

For or against!

Can't have both.

There are risks in a many things we do. Lots of cliches out there, but one that comes to mind " you'll never hit the shot you don't take."
 
We live with a lot of crap in our body.  If you had chicken pox, you are susceptible to getting shingles. 
One of the reasons,  I think this will be tackled( pun intended) The Flu shot.  That's Partially why I am optimistic. I have taken it, and didn't get a cold for two years. The scientists will find cures for all these diseases. The flu shot eases symptoms, shortens the recovery time and has made the head colds literally breathable.

But you are correct, sometime the scientists don't get the right flu strain, and the vaccine doesn't work.
Those dudes in the medical field have to be pumped up practicing or experimenting, and getting closer to their success. Practice makes perfect.

At this rate when school,start in Sept and by the latest October, I think there will be. Some sort of co-vid flu shot.

Earlier this year, I wrote myself a post-it note.  It said "keep the faith"


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