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Question: curious what people think
too early to tell - 26 (39.4%)
by a few weeks - 6 (9.1%)
by a month - 3 (4.5%)
shortened season - 13 (19.7%)
season is toast - 11 (16.7%)
no - 7 (10.6%)
Total Voters: 66

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Author Topic: Start of 2020 CFL Season Postponed Indefinitely  (Read 4012 times)
Blue In Edmonton
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« Reply #120 on: March 24, 2020, 03:43:14 PM »

Vaccines for coronaviruses don't seem to be the norm, whereas for other infectious diseases, they are.  So, while I am hopeful, I am not optimistic.  

More importantly, a simple treatment/cure is far more important for a return to normalcy.  Once we know that *if* someone gets infected and becomes symptomatic, they are not facing a death sentence, but rather a simple treatment, life changes.  

Right now, infection/spread means that our treatment facilities are going to be inundated with patients requiring ICU beds.  If infected people can be treated with a simple out patient drug protocol, concern for getting infected drops dramatically.

Much as Trump is an idiot for suggesting that Malaria drugs are going to be enough to save everyone and return the world to normal, there is a grain of truth to that.  Getting a scientifically verified treatment will be our path to normalcy, or as close to normalcy as we will see.  Just like life did not return to the normal of pre-9/11 after the crisis passed, likewise we may see some paradigm changes in the way business, leaisure and travel are done caused by this pandemic.

It's hard to have a vaccine for something that never existed before. The work to get there will take time. Having the Mango Mussolini simply tweet out names of malaria drugs does infinitely more harm than good. It causes people to go out and find those drugs and take them, at doses that make no sense or in combination with other medications that cause harmful reactions. The other thing that it does is raise expectations that a vaccine can be found quickly. When that inevitably doesn't happen, it undermines the public confidence in medical institutions. Of course, undermining institutions is exactly what Trump and his ilk are all about.

Society and the economy will have to change when this is over. Of course, I fear that when the all-clear is finally sounded there's going to be a short-term orgy of excess. Then the new reality will hit. It will take decades for things to get back to where we were economically. If mass unemployment hits, and wages drop, the value of things will drop. Those of us with mortgages and vehicle payments from a time when things cost what they do now will have to also walk away as our earnings will likely not sustain those things. It could be a bloodbath.

As for the CFL, think of teams like the Bombers. They are paying for a stadium that might be worth pennies on the dollar compared to when it was built. That's not a financial model that work any longer. The infrastructure across sports with stadiums and arenas will all be valued differently. I'm not an economist (but I have one down the hall at work at my disposal), but the potential bleakness of this is staggering.
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Throw Long Bannatyne
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« Reply #121 on: March 24, 2020, 04:24:45 PM »

For teams that own their facilities, an empty year can be catastrophic.  And depending on how they will be held to honouring contracts for coaches / staff, again, with no income, that can break their backs.

Which CFL teams actually own their facilities?  I'd expect govt. relief of loans or debt to be quickly enacted if payments could not be met.
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the paw
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« Reply #122 on: March 24, 2020, 04:33:03 PM »


Society and the economy will have to change when this is over. Of course, I fear that when the all-clear is finally sounded there's going to be a short-term orgy of excess. Then the new reality will hit. It will take decades for things to get back to where we were economically. If mass unemployment hits, and wages drop, the value of things will drop. Those of us with mortgages and vehicle payments from a time when things cost what they do now will have to also walk away as our earnings will likely not sustain those things. It could be a bloodbath.



While the economic disruption is going to be substantial, I think your timeline of "decades" to claw back might be a little too pessimistic.  Heck, the Great Depression  only lasted 10 years, and the worst of it was over by 1937.   And this time, we have the tools of Keynesian economics to use, something that had to be figured out from scratch back then.

There will be significant economic dislocation, that's for sure.  But at the back end of this crisis, people are still going to need to eat, clothe themselves, have a place to live, and buy iPhone apps.  Values of certain assets may drop, but they may rebound in a reasonable time.  Debt holders will also have to be flexible on restructuring such debt, because it is going to be a universal issue.  

The silver lining is that this may be an opportunity to exist certain sunset industries and really get after the climate change issue.  For instance, a prolonged economic downturn may kill off the cruise industry.  Instead of trying to restore the cruise industry (which is a carbon problem-child) maybe we let it go bust, and hire a bunch of people to convert those assets into portable medical ships.  Maybe our tourism industry needs to re-tool to a model based on rail travel rather than cheap flights.  If we are going to have to pay for massive public works projects to get people back to work, it might be the time to retrain all those laid off oil patch workers into sustainable energy technicians.  Etc. Etc.  One of the chief barriers to converting our economy was people's attachment to all the perks and familiarity with the old economy. But if it's all going down the pan, maybe that barrier becomes irrelevant.
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theaardvark
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« Reply #123 on: March 24, 2020, 04:51:19 PM »

It's hard to have a vaccine for something that never existed before. The work to get there will take time. Having the Mango Mussolini simply tweet out names of malaria drugs does infinitely more harm than good. It causes people to go out and find those drugs and take them, at doses that make no sense or in combination with other medications that cause harmful reactions. The other thing that it does is raise expectations that a vaccine can be found quickly. When that inevitably doesn't happen, it undermines the public confidence in medical institutions. Of course, undermining institutions is exactly what Trump and his ilk are all about.


Yeah, people are killing themselves with fish tank versions of the drug... I guess that's part of natural selection, though.

As to developing a vaccine, most "new" diseases are similar in ways to others, and vaccines can be adapted for them, as witnessed by having flu vaccines for this years projected strains.  My comment was that specifically the type of disease that the COVID-19 is is a virus that has a family (like the cold) that has resisted vaccine therapies.   Was it like the flu, we'd have a vaccine like the flu shot a month ago...

« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 08:15:48 PM by theaardvark » Logged

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GCn19
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« Reply #124 on: March 24, 2020, 05:51:49 PM »

Thing is, even if numbers flatline and begin to decline, does that signal the end of social distancing such that it would allow pro sports events to go on? If we flatline, that just means we have gotten a degree of control over it, spread over a longer period of time, and disrupting measures that lead to that would blow it all up.

Yea.... I was talking more of the resumption of normal life. Big venue events and international travel are likely off the table for much longer.
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Donny C
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« Reply #125 on: March 24, 2020, 07:25:06 PM »

While I hope there is a season this year if there isn't the WPG Blue Bombers get to be champs for another year without playing a single down!!
We intimidated all the other teams that they just forfeited.
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Throw Long Bannatyne
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« Reply #126 on: March 24, 2020, 08:02:28 PM »

It's hard to have a vaccine for something that never existed before. The work to get there will take time. Having the Mango Mussolini simply tweet out names of malaria drugs does infinitely more harm than good. It causes people to go out and find those drugs and take them, at doses that make no sense or in combination with other medications that cause harmful reactions. The other thing that it does is raise expectations that a vaccine can be found quickly. When that inevitably doesn't happen, it undermines the public confidence in medical institutions. Of course, undermining institutions is exactly what Trump and his ilk are all about.

Society and the economy will have to change when this is over. Of course, I fear that when the all-clear is finally sounded there's going to be a short-term orgy of excess. Then the new reality will hit. It will take decades for things to get back to where we were economically. If mass unemployment hits, and wages drop, the value of things will drop. Those of us with mortgages and vehicle payments from a time when things cost what they do now will have to also walk away as our earnings will likely not sustain those things. It could be a bloodbath.


Much as things were in the not too distant past, the accumulation of excess house-hold debt is a recent phenomenon that would be difficult to comprehend for the generation that lived through WW2 and those that came before that did not have access to vast credit.  Living well beyond our means is a risky proposition and should never have become the accepted norm.
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blue_or_die
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« Reply #127 on: March 25, 2020, 01:38:38 PM »

Society and the economy will have to change when this is over. Of course, I fear that when the all-clear is finally sounded there's going to be a short-term orgy of excess. Then the new reality will hit. It will take decades for things to get back to where we were economically. If mass unemployment hits, and wages drop, the value of things will drop. Those of us with mortgages and vehicle payments from a time when things cost what they do now will have to also walk away as our earnings will likely not sustain those things. It could be a bloodbath.


Just curious what you mean by this? There will be an "orgy of excess" only is people have money (employment, security), and in that case going out and spending hard is exactly what the economy would need. Or do you mean people will go crazy and spend money they don't have simply because they want to finally live after being cooped up for god knows how long?
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Jesse
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« Reply #128 on: March 25, 2020, 02:06:58 PM »

Just curious what you mean by this? There will be an "orgy of excess" only is people have money (employment, security), and in that case going out and spending hard is exactly what the economy would need. Or do you mean people will go crazy and spend money they don't have simply because they want to finally live after being cooped up for god knows how long?

I feel like he's pointing out the differences between how this type of economic collapse will affect us, in contrast to how it affected people during the Great Depression. On the micro level - if people had less debt - it would be easier to get back to normal after you resume cash flow.

Whereas today, if people are taking out loans to stay afloat, you're simply digging yourself deeper. And many people are already deeper than they should be (*raises hand*).
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blue_or_die
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« Reply #129 on: March 25, 2020, 02:38:11 PM »

I feel like he's pointing out the differences between how this type of economic collapse will affect us, in contrast to how it affected people during the Great Depression. On the micro level - if people had less debt - it would be easier to get back to normal after you resume cash flow.

Whereas today, if people are taking out loans to stay afloat, you're simply digging yourself deeper. And many people are already deeper than they should be (*raises hand*).

Ah, gotcha, thanks.

In addition to individual habits, this should also spur reform to employment insurance IMO. People will begin to value it once it's realized how needed it is. I've heard that it, along with CPP, are troubled and underfunded systems. I know I'd be willing to contribute more on an involuntary basis so the fund is up to snuff for myself or anyone else who needs it at any given time as well. Same with the expansion of the pool of those who pay into it.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 03:14:45 PM by blue_or_die » Logged

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Jesse
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« Reply #130 on: March 25, 2020, 02:42:28 PM »

Ah, gotcha, thanks.

In addition to individual habits, this should also spur reform to employment insurance IMO. People will begin to value it once it's realized how needed it is. I've heard that it, along with CPP, are troubled and underunded systems. I know I'd be willing to contribute more on an involuntary basis so the fund is up to snuff for myself or anyone else who needs it at any given time as well. Same with the expansion of the pool of those who pay into it.

Or perhaps he's an old crack pot saying the world should go back to the way thing used to be, old man yelling at cloud stylez.

Who knows, really.
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #131 on: March 25, 2020, 02:51:31 PM »

Or perhaps he's an old crack pot saying the world should go back to the way thing used to be, old man yelling at cloud stylez.

Who knows, really.

Maybe he's a YOUNG crack pot. lol Smiley
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blue_or_die
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« Reply #132 on: March 25, 2020, 03:14:09 PM »

Or perhaps he's an old crack pot saying the world should go back to the way thing used to be, old man yelling at cloud stylez.

Who knows, really.

Lmao. Blue in Edmonton has always been a very reasonable poster IMO, bloodbath predictions aside  Cool  Tongue

...The Mango Mussolini comment was gold.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 03:26:37 PM by blue_or_die » Logged

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pjrocksmb
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This is the CFL- support our league- Go Canada!


« Reply #133 on: March 26, 2020, 02:40:16 AM »

Economic recovery by the third quarter as per Globe and Mail.  I bought stocks today.  Small position to start.  Pipes and utilities.  Also local company favorite EIF.
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Darwinismyhomeboy
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« Reply #134 on: March 29, 2020, 08:51:21 PM »

I was surprised to see the results of this question.  I would be in shock if pro sports return in 2020 at all.  The Olympics are postponed a year.  I forsee that as the norm.
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