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Poll
Question: Assume average play from QB
500 - 2 (5.6%)
600 - 1 (2.8%)
700 - 5 (13.9%)
800 - 4 (11.1%)
900 - 5 (13.9%)
1000 - 19 (52.8%)
Total Voters: 36

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Author Topic: How many yards for Adams this year?  (Read 3247 times)
pjrocksmb
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« on: February 17, 2020, 04:38:56 AM »

?
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123James321
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« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2020, 01:48:03 PM »

If Collaros stays healthy i see Adams getting over 1000. I still see him as a good receiver. Our offence will be a lot more pass efficient with Collaros at the helm. And Adams admitted he had a bit of a down year. Collaros was hitting him like crazy in the playoffs.
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blue_or_die
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« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2020, 03:56:50 PM »

I said 800. Not sure why. I guess I see him as a 1000 yard receiver but will be compromised by injury (to himself or Collaros), and/or we sign Walker who hogs 1600 yards.
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dd
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« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2020, 05:19:34 PM »

I said 800, I think Lawler will have the same and Demski will have a good year as well, and then you factor in Harris, who ll see the ball a lot, and there?s only one football
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DM83
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« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2020, 06:24:39 PM »

I like Zach.  He can make more throws than many of the guys we have had here in the last ten years, or more.
I still think we could use another star on the other side.  But Zach showed, as spdid the boys we already have,they can be outstanding.

I think Adams  will get at least 8 passes on stride, and can potentially lead to 500 yards and at least five more TDs.

I still think if we got a star burner, we could light it up, plus our defence, we could ne in for a few dominant dynasty type seasons. 

Anyone with a brain should see that, and as a player( hello Mr, Walker) that could lead to another ten years in the CFL. 

I like our receivers....just need one more to make,defensive coverage a nightmare.....
What a great year it may be. For the Bombers offence.
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« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2020, 07:44:13 PM »

I do not have enough confidence in his ability to stay healthy to give him more than 500-600.
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blue girl
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« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2020, 08:16:08 PM »

I'm optimistically going with 1000. He seems to have great chemistry with Collaros.
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« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2020, 08:43:39 PM »

900 at best.
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pjrocksmb
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« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2020, 03:33:13 AM »

Thanks everyone.  Great response and lots of love for Adams.
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GCn19
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« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2020, 12:19:02 PM »

With Collaros and Adams both healthy 1000+. Any combination of injury to either (which is highly probable) and it will depend on time lost.
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blue_gold_84
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« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2020, 08:32:38 PM »

With Collaros and Adams both healthy 1000+. Any combination of injury to either (which is highly probable) and it will depend on time lost.

+1
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bluebeard
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« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2020, 11:19:57 PM »

With Collaros and Adams both healthy 1000+. Any combination of injury to either (which is highly probable) and it will depend on time lost.
I voted for 1000 yards but your statement is the correct one.
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New_Earth_Mud
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« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2020, 03:03:58 AM »

With Collaros and Adams both healthy 1000+. Any combination of injury to either (which is highly probable) and it will depend on time lost.

yup
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Sec223
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« Reply #13 on: February 23, 2020, 12:00:37 PM »

I have a bad feeling about his upcoming season Huh Sure hope I'm wrong.
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dd
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« Reply #14 on: February 23, 2020, 03:49:30 PM »

What is the basis of your bad feeling??
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blue_or_die
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« Reply #15 on: February 23, 2020, 03:56:32 PM »

What is the basis of your bad feeling??

No kidding. Things are coming up Milhouse. Re-signed our guys (including the #1 prized FA), made improvements elsewhere to help weather the loss of 4 guys to the NFL. Another year of experience for the once new guys who should be able to take the next step. When things look good on paper there is literally no reason to be concerned. It's the execution of what's on paper going poorly that should make you worried, and we won't know that in February.
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Jesse
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« Reply #16 on: February 23, 2020, 04:25:55 PM »

No kidding. Things are coming up Milhouse. Re-signed our guys (including the #1 prized FA), made improvements elsewhere to help weather the loss of 4 guys to the NFL. Another year of experience for the once new guys who should be able to take the next step. When things look good on paper there is literally no reason to be concerned. It's the execution of what's on paper going poorly that should make you worried, and we won't know that in February.

Personally, I'm pretty cynical about Collaros staying healthy.

And I don't blame Walters, I think it was the only play. But it's hard to believe Zach's gonna suddenly give us (most of) a full season.

The rest of the team looks spectacular, but any team goes as far as their QB does.
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dd
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« Reply #17 on: February 23, 2020, 05:13:44 PM »

Our starting lineup is as string as ever. My main concern is injury to our QB and who our number 2 guy is. That?s everybody?s concern.  Walters needs another Qb our stable to weather any injury storms coming. Hamilton and Toronto in the east and Edmonton and Saskatchewan in the west have bench strength at QB, the rest of the league doesn?t. Our next move has to be to address that
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GCn19
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« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2020, 01:46:37 PM »

Personally, I'm pretty cynical about Collaros staying healthy.

And I don't blame Walters, I think it was the only play. But it's hard to believe Zach's gonna suddenly give us (most of) a full season.

The rest of the team looks spectacular, but any team goes as far as their QB does.

You should be cynical. History is not kind to players with similar concussion histories to ZC. A flood of Collaros fan boys are going to cite examples of this guy or that guy who played after extensive concussion issues but for every one they name there are 10 that were forced out of the game. Sorry Bomber fans that's the reality. I hope and pray that McGuire is the real deal or that our OL and O gameplan are so good that we can overcome long odds, but let's not gild the lily, there is a high probability that Collaros will miss significant time this year. Let's hope it's not the playoffs.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 01:50:36 PM by GCn19 » Logged

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booch
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« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2020, 02:18:37 PM »

You should be cynical. History is not kind to players with similar concussion histories to ZC. A flood of Collaros fan boys are going to cite examples of this guy or that guy who played after extensive concussion issues but for every one they name there are 10 that were forced out of the game. Sorry Bomber fans that's the reality. I hope and pray that McGuire is the real deal or that our OL and O gameplan are so good that we can overcome long odds, but let's not gild the lily, there is a high probability that Collaros will miss significant time this year. Let's hope it's not the playoffs.
Luckily McGuire is coming in as a second year guy...sure not a second year guy with extensive game reps, but a QB who already knows the nuances of the CFL game, is familiar with this team's system and concepts as well as personnel...which is huge.

When looking at things though, he I believe will have success when and if thrown into the game due to whatever circumstance due to the fact he is a thrower, and is hard wired to stand in the pocket, and look for the open guy, and not take off and run and the first sign of pressure or the first read isn't there...another huge factor.

Is this ideal rolling with Zack's history and good/likely chance to get knocked out with only a 2nd yr limited rep guy as back-up...nope...obviously not, but also it's a gamble with more upside I think than downside...and obviously the team knew Nichols may not be ready to start the season, or could start but may be less than 100 percent, so the switch was made

 
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GCn19
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« Reply #20 on: February 24, 2020, 02:41:29 PM »

Luckily McGuire is coming in as a second year guy...sure not a second year guy with extensive game reps, but a QB who already knows the nuances of the CFL game, is familiar with this team's system and concepts as well as personnel...which is huge.

When looking at things though, he I believe will have success when and if thrown into the game due to whatever circumstance due to the fact he is a thrower, and is hard wired to stand in the pocket, and look for the open guy, and not take off and run and the first sign of pressure or the first read isn't there...another huge factor.

Is this ideal rolling with Zack's history and good/likely chance to get knocked out with only a 2nd yr limited rep guy as back-up...nope...obviously not, but also it's a gamble with more upside I think than downside...and obviously the team knew Nichols may not be ready to start the season, or could start but may be less than 100 percent, so the switch was made

 


I have no issues with going with ZC and McGuire, we were in a tough spot given Nichols uncertainty. I just don't agree with the posters who are suggesting this move carries no risk and the ones who have elevated Collaros to elite QB status. I think it is unfair to Zac to do that, and it sets unrealistic expectations for him. All we need, and all we are likely to get from him, is steady QB play.
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booch
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« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2020, 02:46:09 PM »

I have no issues with going with ZC and McGuire, we were in a tough spot given Nichols uncertainty. I just don't agree with the posters who are suggesting this move carries no risk and the ones who have elevated Collaros to elite QB status. I think it is unfair to Zac to do that, and it sets unrealistic expectations for him. All we need, and all we are likely to get from him, is steady QB play.

Yup there is big risk, but Zack appeared way different than his skidish self in Hamilton, and the almost confused look in Sask....he looked more like 2015 and 2014 Collaros...cool..calm and confident...even in interviews he seemed less bitter and ready to snap on people...was it a sense of security and safety in this system?...coaching?..combo of the 2...i think so, and if he is upright all year, I bet he will be talked about in the top 2-3 guys in the league and looking like vintage Collaros
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GCn19
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« Reply #22 on: February 24, 2020, 02:50:46 PM »

Yup there is big risk, but Zack appeared way different than his skidish self in Hamilton, and the almost confused look in Sask....he looked more like 2015 and 2014 Collaros...cool..calm and confident...even in interviews he seemed less bitter and ready to snap on people...was it a sense of security and safety in this system?...coaching?..combo of the 2...i think so, and if he is upright all year, I bet he will be talked about in the top 2-3 guys in the league and looking like vintage Collaros

Problem is we know, as you have illustrated above, that his confidence ebbs and flows depending on his comfort level. IF we protect him well we can get good play out of him but he is always a hard hit away from being skiddish, concussed, and confused.
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« Reply #23 on: February 24, 2020, 04:08:01 PM »

Problem is we know, as you have illustrated above, that his confidence ebbs and flows depending on his comfort level. IF we protect him well we can get good play out of him but he is always a hard hit away from being skiddish, concussed, and confused.

It helps having the best tailback in the league, too. That's a huge safety valve for any QB but especially one with an injury history such as his.

A healthy Collaros is a necessity for this team to succeed in 2020.
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blue_or_die
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« Reply #24 on: February 24, 2020, 04:08:38 PM »

Problem is we know, as you have illustrated above, that his confidence ebbs and flows depending on his comfort level. IF we protect him well we can get good play out of him but he is always a hard hit away from being skiddish, concussed, and confused.

I think what you are describing are two separate issues. There is the obvious risk of a lights-out (no pun intended) hit that removes him from game time, and then there is a QB who plays scared when he's constantly rushed, hit, and otherwise constantly under pressure. The first problem is the burden we carry, but the second one is preventable with our awesome Oline (and OL depth to boot). They have demonstrated they can take the heat. This isn't going to be run for your life Zach like it was in 2016/17 era Hamilton or Sask (or would have been in TO for sure).

EDIT: And as bg84 wrote above, Andrew Harris. Collaros doesn't have to rely on Wes Cates or whoever even plays tailback for them these days.
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blue_gold_84
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« Reply #25 on: February 24, 2020, 04:31:22 PM »

Collaros doesn't have to rely on Wes Cates or whoever even plays tailback for them these days.

LOL Cheesy

Powell is a pretty good tailback but he's not the complete package like Harris. #33 is in his own echelon, IMO.
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booch
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« Reply #26 on: February 24, 2020, 04:34:15 PM »

LOL Cheesy

Powell is a pretty good tailback but he's not the complete package like Harris. #33 is in his own echelon, IMO.

And is wrong side of 30 too...along with about 40% of their projected starters...Harris is same age for sure...but in much better condition when you look at the two..and also doesn't have to run behind the Regina Rams O-line..
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GCn19
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« Reply #27 on: February 24, 2020, 05:45:21 PM »

It helps having the best tailback in the league, too. That's a huge safety valve for any QB but especially one with an injury history such as his.

A healthy Collaros is a necessity for this team to succeed in 2020.

Yes, that is extremely helpful for sure. Let's hope Andrew has another big year in store for us.
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blue_or_die
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« Reply #28 on: February 24, 2020, 06:34:24 PM »

Yes, that is extremely helpful for sure. Let's hope Andrew has another big year in store for us.

No, don't say that. Every year, everyone from every fan base and media including our own speculate that this is the year Andrew declines. We must maintain that line of thought in order for him to continually get better and better Wink
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TecnoGenius
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« Reply #29 on: February 24, 2020, 07:09:27 PM »

No, don't say that. Every year, everyone from every fan base and media including our own speculate that this is the year Andrew declines. We must maintain that line of thought in order for him to continually get better and better Wink

Keep that chip on his shoulder chippy?  Could be.  Me, I never doubt he'll be monster year after year.  I bet 2020 is his best year yet and he gets that stolen league MOP and MOC.
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GCn19
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« Reply #30 on: February 24, 2020, 07:13:16 PM »

Keep that chip on his shoulder chippy?  Could be.  Me, I never doubt he'll be monster year after year.  I bet 2020 is his best year yet and he gets that stolen league MOP and MOC.


I agree that there is no reason to believe he can't do it.
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pjrocksmb
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« Reply #31 on: February 25, 2020, 01:54:16 PM »

I agree that there is no reason to believe he can't do it.

Agree he will be a beast

Nice to see the love for Adams, 50% think he can do 1000 plus.  Nice to know the faith is here and there is a minority group that doesn't believe!
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #32 on: February 25, 2020, 05:02:10 PM »

Yardage aside his blocking and leadership are very important. Overall we have a young group of receivers with 3 in their 1st year and 1 in his 2nd year.

He's very capable of making a BIG play to score or sustain a drive. Yardage is great but their are other factors to consider.

Glad he's back.
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pjrocksmb
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« Reply #33 on: February 25, 2020, 11:15:27 PM »

Yardage aside his blocking and leadership are very important. Overall we have a young group of receivers with 3 in their 1st year and 1 in his 2nd year.

He's very capable of making a BIG play to score or sustain a drive. Yardage is great but their are other factors to consider.

Glad he's back.
Great points, great vet, deserves more respect.  He will prove the doubters wrong.
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New_Earth_Mud
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« Reply #34 on: February 25, 2020, 11:50:59 PM »

Great points, great vet, deserves more respect.  He will prove the doubter wrong.

what doubters or disrespect?
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« Reply #35 on: February 26, 2020, 12:05:55 AM »

Great points, great vet, deserves more respect.  He will prove the doubter wrong.

2 posts earlier you are praising the responses as being positive and supportive for Adams and now you are lamenting the lack of respect for him. Which is it? Maybe people are factoring possible injury in their guesses.
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dd
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« Reply #36 on: February 26, 2020, 12:57:36 AM »

No, don't say that. Every year, everyone from every fan base and media including our own speculate that this is the year Andrew declines. We must maintain that line of thought in order for him to continually get better and better Wink
I think he ll have another good year, he?s in great shape and super motivated but Father Time is a ***** and taps everyone on the shoulders some point in their career
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pjrocksmb
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« Reply #37 on: February 26, 2020, 01:44:35 AM »

what doubters or disrespect?
See the thread for last year that said he was the worst starting receiver in the league.  There have been many that have doubted him consistently.  They argue that he isn't a number one receiver.  I am very happy that I created this poll to inform the community about the general feelings towards his expected productivity.

2 posts earlier you are praising the responses as being positive and supportive for Adams and now you are lamenting the lack of respect for him. Which is it? Maybe people are factoring possible injury in their guesses.
People have show him lack of respect at times.  This forum shows that there is at least 50% that are very optimistic.  Yes, some are worried about injury.
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« Reply #38 on: February 26, 2020, 02:16:36 AM »

what doubters or disrespect?
Hey bud, don?t even bother continuing to waste your time with him.  Cheesy
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« Reply #39 on: February 26, 2020, 02:26:59 AM »

See the thread for last year that said he was the worst starting receiver in the league.  There have been many that have doubted him consistently.  They argue that he isn't a number one receiver.  I am very happy that I created this poll to inform the community about the general feelings towards his expected productivity.
People have show him lack of respect at times.  This forum shows that there is at least 50% that are very optimistic.  Yes, some are worried about injury.

Looks like you couldn't resist waking the sleeping dog.
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New_Earth_Mud
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« Reply #40 on: February 26, 2020, 03:28:30 AM »

See the thread for last year that said he was the worst starting receiver in the league.  There have been many that have doubted him consistently.  They argue that he isn't a number one receiver.  I am very happy that I created this poll to inform the community about the general feelings towards his expected productivity.
People have show him lack of respect at times.  This forum shows that there is at least 50% that are very optimistic.  Yes, some are worried about injury.



As you would say....   Stick to the thread.

Keep on topic dude your bringing up things from last year.

Thanks
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« Reply #41 on: February 26, 2020, 03:36:24 AM »

See the thread for last year that said he was the worst starting receiver in the league.  There have been many that have doubted him consistently.  They argue that he isn't a number one receiver.  I am very happy that I created this poll to inform the community about the general feelings towards his expected productivity.
People have show him lack of respect at times.  This forum shows that there is at least 50% that are very optimistic.  Yes, some are worried about injury.


The problem was Nichols would make any good receiver look average.
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« Reply #42 on: February 26, 2020, 02:02:34 PM »

Hey bud, don?t even bother continuing to waste your time with him.  Cheesy

And yet, here you are wasting your time with useless comments in the thread he created. Seems sensible.

The problem was Nichols would make any good receiver look average.

Yeah, like in 2017 and 2018 when Adams eclipsed 1,000 yards both times and compiled 17 TDs. Super average. Oh, wait...
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« Reply #43 on: February 26, 2020, 02:07:07 PM »

How many yards Adams gets this year will be hugely effected by three unknowns... the number of games Adams plays, the number of games Collaros plays, and what kind of OC Buck is. Signing Walker, would also effect Adams numbers.
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« Reply #44 on: February 26, 2020, 02:24:26 PM »

How many yards Adams gets this year will be hugely effected by three unknowns... the number of games Adams plays, the number of games Collaros plays, and what kind of OC Buck is. Signing Walker, would also effect Adams numbers.

Good analysis
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« Reply #45 on: February 26, 2020, 02:29:55 PM »

Since coming from Toronto, Adams has hit 1000 twice, and come up short 3 times.  His 5 year average is a little over 800 yds.

Those are the facts.  Whether one is a doubter or a believer, they are the facts.

The only conclusion one can reach is that Adams has the potential to reach 1000 yds, but there is a 60% chance he falls short.  Which isn't a comment on his talent, its just acknowledging that there are factors at play.
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« Reply #46 on: February 26, 2020, 03:27:57 PM »

Since coming from Toronto, Adams has hit 1000 twice, and come up short 3 times.  His 5 year average is a little over 800 yds.

Those are the facts.  Whether one is a doubter or a believer, they are the facts.

The only conclusion one can reach is that Adams has the potential to reach 1000 yds, but there is a 60% chance he falls short.  Which isn't a comment on his talent, its just acknowledging that there are factors at play.

On what are you basing this number, his having two 1,000+ seasons out of five as a Bomber...? (2/5 = 40%)

Adams has compiled 4,226 yards in 69 games as a Bomber, for a YPG average of around 61.2. Over a full 18-game season, that would put him around 1,110 yards. Health is obviously a factor, as well as QB and offensive production, but I don't know if it's reasonable to say he has a 40% chance of cracking 1,000 yards based on your rationale.
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« Reply #47 on: February 26, 2020, 04:21:47 PM »

On what are you basing this number, his having two 1,000+ seasons out of five as a Bomber...? (2/5 = 40%)

Adams has compiled 4,226 yards in 69 games as a Bomber, for a YPG average of around 61.2. Over a full 18-game season, that would put him around 1,110 yards. Health is obviously a factor, as well as QB and offensive production, but I don't know if it's reasonable to say he has a 40% chance of cracking 1,000 yards based on your rationale.

It's not hard math.  Out of 5 seasons, he has cracked the 1000 yard barrier 40% of the time, which means 60% of the time he didn't.  It's not only eminently reasonable, it's logically indisputable.

Now, if this thread asked "will Adams yards per game for 2020 be at or above the pace for a 1000 yard season" then I would say the answer is almost certainly yes.  But that's a different question.

Again, I'm not disputing his talent or effort.  But there are other factors beyond his control, as you have identified.  If Adams plays 16+ games, he will probably break 1000 yards. 
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« Reply #48 on: February 26, 2020, 04:41:09 PM »

We're also a team that uses our star RB more than other teams. That reduces the passing output across the board. Hard to know how much that changes with Pierce as the new OC and Collaros as the starting QB.

Keep in mind that we've been at the top or near the top in scoring without massive top receiver yardage being accumulated.

Many are expecting Lawler to become a larger focus as well. We are a team that spreads the ball around quite well. The team has not been built on having the top receiver like ( Walker ) as the big gun.

Not worried about Adams in the least. He'll produce accordingly.
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« Reply #49 on: February 26, 2020, 04:54:37 PM »

It's not hard math. 

You're right, it's not hard math. It's very basic and extremely over-simplistic, not taking into account average yardage per game, games played, and other factors regarding the offense as a whole. That's exactly the point here: "easy" math doesn't even begin to paint a clear picture.

By your logic, Derel Walker only has a 60% chance of cracking 1,000 receiving yards this season (that is if he decides to sign somewhere) - three 1,000-yard seasons out of five. Sure, it's "logically indisputable" but it's not necessarily a reasonable approach to take.
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« Reply #50 on: February 26, 2020, 05:29:40 PM »

You're right, it's not hard math. It's very basic and extremely over-simplistic, not taking into account average yardage per game, games played, and other factors regarding the offense as a whole. That's exactly the point here: "easy" math doesn't even begin to paint a clear picture.

By your logic, Derel Walker only has a 60% chance of cracking 1,000 receiving yards this season (that is if he decides to sign somewhere) - three 1,000-yard seasons out of five. Sure, it's "logically indisputable" but it's not necessarily a reasonable approach to take.

Adams' historical record (2 of 5 seasons over 1000 yards) takes all those other factors into account.  Despite having a solid average yardage per game, Adams doesn't always play all the games.  Hence, he doesn't always hit the season threshold of 1000 yards.  There isn't really anything more complicated to "get", its a very clear picture. 

The ONLY thing that might change this is if we had a reason to believe that Adams will depart from the historical pattern.  He doesn't seem to have any lingering injury, our offence will continue to be run-heavy, and he is likely to be our #1 target.  So, I don't see any evidence to suggest a change in the pattern. If he avoids injury, he will almost certainly get his 1000 yards, but there is a good chance he will get dinged. 

Now, the math with Derel Walker is a little different.  First off, his 5 year average is over 1000 yards, so he is more prolific than Adams.  And, his dip in 2017 was due to a partial season coming back from the NFL.  Only the 2018 dip can be attributed to injury, and he still got almost 900 yds in 11 games that year.  So Derel Walker has a very high probability of getting 1000 yards, over 90% would be my guess. 
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« Reply #51 on: February 26, 2020, 06:29:42 PM »

Burnham was the 2nd leading receiver in the CFL. The Lions scored 97 points less than the Bombers and won 6 regular season games less than the Bombers. Lions finished out of the playoffs.

That happens when your team is behind more often than ahead.

Bombers often had very early large leads in games. When you go into " game manage mode " you aren't looking for the 70 yard bomb on every series. Bombers were the 2nd leading scoring team in the CFL.

That's not to say Burnham isn't a better receiver than Adams but yardage can be a very deceptive bit of information.
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« Reply #52 on: February 26, 2020, 07:24:39 PM »

Burnham was the 2nd leading receiver in the CFL. The Lions scored 97 points less than the Bombers and won 6 regular season games less than the Bombers. Lions finished out of the playoffs.

That happens when your team is behind more often than ahead.

Bombers often had very early large leads in games. When you go into " game manage mode " you aren't looking for the 70 yard bomb on every series. Bombers were the 2nd leading scoring team in the CFL.

That's not to say Burnham isn't a better receiver than Adams but yardage can be a very deceptive bit of information.

Burnham is a good case in point.  His 5 year average is 1100 yards per season, including 2015 when he missed a handful of games.  He was on the injured list, but as that was early in his career, I don't recall if it was a real injury or a roster shuffle.

Nonetheless, he has played basically full seasons ever since then.  He has a very high likelihood to get to 1000 yds this year.  His 2019 spike in yards was exceptional, and largely due to him being the only legit target, as you have noted. But even if you take last year out of it, Burnham is a real solid bet to be over 1000. 

Is Burnham a better receiver than Adams?  I don't think the answer is clear.  Adams brings non-statistical elements to the game, and his per game productivity is comparable.  You can make a case for Adams.  But if the question is "Is Burnham a more productive receiver than Adams?" then the answer has to be yes.  He plays more games, more consistently.
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« Reply #53 on: February 26, 2020, 07:37:57 PM »

Adams' historical record (2 of 5 seasons over 1000 yards) takes all those other factors into account.  Despite having a solid average yardage per game, Adams doesn't always play all the games.  Hence, he doesn't always hit the season threshold of 1000 yards.  There isn't really anything more complicated to "get", its a very clear picture. 

The ONLY thing that might change this is if we had a reason to believe that Adams will depart from the historical pattern.  He doesn't seem to have any lingering injury, our offence will continue to be run-heavy, and he is likely to be our #1 target.  So, I don't see any evidence to suggest a change in the pattern. If he avoids injury, he will almost certainly get his 1000 yards, but there is a good chance he will get dinged. 

Now, the math with Derel Walker is a little different.  First off, his 5 year average is over 1000 yards, so he is more prolific than Adams.  And, his dip in 2017 was due to a partial season coming back from the NFL.  Only the 2018 dip can be attributed to injury, and he still got almost 900 yds in 11 games that year.  So Derel Walker has a very high probability of getting 1000 yards, over 90% would be my guess. 

So, the math is different based on the individual...? In other words, you can't go strictly off seasons played or 1,000-yard plateaus hit. So much for indisputable logic.

No one will argue Walker is the superior receiver, simply because such an argument can't be reasonably made. And I think the majority would agree that should be play, he'll have the greater probability of hitting 1,000 yards. However, you can't use one set of parameters for him and then another set for Adams to justify the claim the latter has just a 40% chance to do it.
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« Reply #54 on: February 26, 2020, 07:49:21 PM »

So, the math is different based on the individual...? In other words, you can't go strictly off seasons played or 1,000-yard plateaus hit. So much for indisputable logic.

No one will argue Walker is the superior receiver, simply because such an argument can't be reasonably made. And I think the majority would agree that should be play, he'll have the greater probability of hitting 1,000 yards. However, you can't use one set of parameters for him and then another set for Adams to justify the claim the latter has just a 40% chance to do it.

Of course the math is different for different players, you are talking about a performance metric.  Walker has a greater chance of hitting 1000 yards because his per season average is higher, his NFL absence isn't durability-related so it has to be taken out of the sample, and his per game production is high enough that he can miss games and still have a good chance to hit the 1000 yard mark.  Adams can't. 

I don't know if you're butt hurt because i said this wasn't hard math, but you are arguing over nothing.  Adams only surpasses 1000 yards in 40% of his seasons with the WBB.  That is just a fact.  Could 2020 be the year he hits 1100 yards and improves those historical odds to 50-50?  Maybe. But until he does, the odds are the odds...
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« Reply #55 on: February 26, 2020, 09:31:50 PM »

Of course the math is different for different players, you are talking about a performance metric.  Walker has a greater chance of hitting 1000 yards because his per season average is higher, his NFL absence isn't durability-related so it has to be taken out of the sample, and his per game production is high enough that he can miss games and still have a good chance to hit the 1000 yard mark.  Adams can't. 

I don't know if you're butt hurt because i said this wasn't hard math, but you are arguing over nothing.  Adams only surpasses 1000 yards in 40% of his seasons with the WBB.  That is just a fact.  Could 2020 be the year he hits 1100 yards and improves those historical odds to 50-50?  Maybe. But until he does, the odds are the odds...

Again: nobody is disputing Walker is the better or more prolific receiver with a better chance at hitting 1,000 yards in 2020. His statistics across the board bear that fact. What doesn't make sense is how you put Adams at 40% using one metric and then Walker at 90% using a different one.

The equation you applied initially (1,000+ yard seasons divided by seasons played) showed the same way Adams has only hit 1,000 yards 40% of the time Walker has only hit that mark 60% of the time. Both numbers are cold, hard facts. But it's not even remotely that simple in the case of either receiver, based on their respective circumstances in their careers.

Should the Bombers' QB carousel issues last season be taken into consideration with Adams' overall numbers? Prior to 2019, he averaged roughly 920 yards per season and 66 yards per game. 2016-2018 were pretty consistent production-wise and then they fell off cliff last season. Is that on him? I'd say no; the team didn't have a single 1,000-yard receiver last season. So, his performance metric took a sizeable hit which was no fault of his own.

Nobody's butthurt, to be clear. Unless you deem butthurt as being genuinely curious as to the rationale you've applied here. That's a major component of the entertainment here: getting and understanding the perspectives of fellow fans.
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« Reply #56 on: February 26, 2020, 10:42:07 PM »

Again: nobody is disputing Walker is the better or more prolific receiver with a better chance at hitting 1,000 yards in 2020. His statistics across the board bear that fact. What doesn't make sense is how you put Adams at 40% using one metric and then Walker at 90% using a different one.

The equation you applied initially (1,000+ yard seasons divided by seasons played) showed the same way Adams has only hit 1,000 yards 40% of the time Walker has only hit that mark 60% of the time. Both numbers are cold, hard facts. But it's not even remotely that simple in the case of either receiver, based on their respective circumstances in their careers.

Should the Bombers' QB carousel issues last season be taken into consideration with Adams' overall numbers? Prior to 2019, he averaged roughly 920 yards per season and 66 yards per game. 2016-2018 were pretty consistent production-wise and then they fell off cliff last season. Is that on him? I'd say no; the team didn't have a single 1,000-yard receiver last season. So, his performance metric took a sizeable hit which was no fault of his own.

Nobody's butthurt, to be clear. Unless you deem butthurt as being genuinely curious as to the rationale you've applied here. That's a major component of the entertainment here: getting and understanding the perspectives of fellow fans.

If you apply the same formula as I did with Adams, Walker would have a 60% chance EXCEPT you can't include 2017 as a lower production year because he was in the NFL for half the year.  That's different than missing games due to injury.  (To be fair we have to apply the same criteria to Adams, except he wasn't in the NFL, so no adjustment is necessary).

Given that Walker hit 600 yds in less than half a season, I actually credit it the same as reaching the 1000 yd  mark.  Which means that he has hit the mark 4/5 years or 80%.

I give Walker an additional 10% chance on the strength of 2018.  Even though he only played 11 games he hit 875 yds.  One more game might have got him there, and in fact he broke the 1000 yd barrier in only 12 games a few years earlier.  That might seem arbitrary, but the fact is that Walkers history shows he can miss 4-5 games and still break the mark.  Adams history doesn't suggest the same thing.

I don't know how much QBs should be factored in, but I would argue Collaros has been statistically indistinguishable from Nichols.  And Walker broke 1000 yards in that miserable Argo offence with Bethel Thompson throwing to him.  So there isn't any glaring evidence that Adams will surge this year or Walker will drop off.  One might argue that the Collaros renaissance will blossom into more prolific passing production this year, but at this point that's a statement of faith rather than evidence.

My basic point is that historical patterns are the best predictor if you have a sufficient sample size, and in the absence of a clear rationale for expecting otherwise.
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« Reply #57 on: February 26, 2020, 10:53:28 PM »

May yet?
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« Reply #58 on: February 27, 2020, 01:31:48 AM »

Is Burnham better than Adams?? Seriously?? Not even close. Burnham rarely drops anything, and is constantly making the highlight reel catches, and has productive seasons regardless of who's throwing the ball in BC. Adams has to become alot more consistent and productive. I think Lawler is the dark horse in our offense and is going to shine this year.
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« Reply #59 on: February 27, 2020, 10:07:37 PM »

Is Burnham better than Adams?? Seriously?? Not even close. Burnham rarely drops anything, and is constantly making the highlight reel catches, and has productive seasons regardless of who's throwing the ball in BC. Adams has to become alot more consistent and productive. I think Lawler is the dark horse in our offense and is going to shine this year.
Adams is a consistent performer.  Be better sure but he is our best proven vet at receiver who will likely play very well of healthy and our QB situation is decent.
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« Reply #60 on: February 28, 2020, 12:52:16 AM »

Adams is a consistent performer.  Be better sure but he is our best proven vet at receiver who will likely play very well of healthy and our QB situation is decent.
He fought the ball alot last year and dropped gimmee catches, can't have that and want to be compared to Brian Burnham.
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« Reply #61 on: February 28, 2020, 12:57:45 AM »

He fought the ball alot last year and dropped gimmee catches, can't have that and want to be compared to Brian Burnham.
That's where people are mistaken, he isn't likely at that level.  Not everyone has to be a Stegal.  We do it by committee and we do that very well.  Adams is a solid consistent receiver we will continue to rely upon.  You are focusing on his mistakes, which happen.  I don't think he found it a lot.  He came through in the end of the season and the playoffs.  Was there when we needed him the most.  He will do that again next year. 
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« Reply #62 on: February 28, 2020, 01:02:33 AM »

Yes, he came on at the end of the season and made that game winning TD vs Calgary, and that's good, but he also dropped more than his share....i m not focussing on the bad, just saying he doesn't perform at a level that Burnham does and his recieving yards tell the same story. Be consistent and he's a 1000 yd reciever, but we gotta see that
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« Reply #63 on: February 28, 2020, 01:45:17 PM »

people are hard on Adams....Burnham and other "top" receivers get more targets per game, and more chances with intermediate to deep shots..

People forget though he hits paydirt..36 TD's in 80 games played, Burnham has 33 in 82 games played in comparison...and I am certain a lot of TD's have been compromised away from Adam's with our strong ground game especially the last few years with Strev and Harris
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« Reply #64 on: February 28, 2020, 03:16:36 PM »

Burnham has 26% of all pass targets ( 146 ) directed towards him. Adams only had about 13% ( 69 ). Our pass distribution of targets had 6 receivers with between 54 and 79 with A. Harris having the most. Whitehead came in 2nd with 72.

Adams was tied for 3rd with Demski.

It's clear all our receivers were involved more and equally than compared to the Lions group.
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« Reply #65 on: February 28, 2020, 04:16:41 PM »

Burnham has 26% of all pass targets directed towards him. Adams only had about 13%. Our pass distribution of targets had 6 receivers with between 54 and 79 with A. Harris having the most. Whitehead came in 2nd with 72.

Adams was tied for 3rd with Demski.

It's clear all our receivers were involved more and equally than compared to the Lions group.


I'm amazed Whitehead came in second, are you sure?  He didn't seem to be that involved in the offence and by the end of the year had been replaced by Bailey.
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« Reply #66 on: February 28, 2020, 04:24:26 PM »

I'm amazed Whitehead came in second, are you sure?  He didn't seem to be that involved in the offence and by the end of the year had been replaced by Bailey.

If true, it kind of tells you why we don't have any receivers on the leader board.

He was receiving most targets early in the season. Those stupid screen attempts over and over.
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« Reply #67 on: February 28, 2020, 04:30:16 PM »

I'm amazed Whitehead came in second, are you sure?  He didn't seem to be that involved in the offence and by the end of the year had been replaced by Bailey.

Yes. You can check the Bomber 2019 stats but he also had the 2nd most receptions. He had 52 and A. Harris had 70.

Posters complain about the short dump passes but it was how our offense was built. Ball and TOP control.

Whitehead was injured so I'm not sure he was replaced by Bailey per se. I'm still optimistic that Whitehead can be a large part of our offense this season.

It will be an interesting battle between Whitehead, Nelson and Bailey to see who starts. If we sign D. Walker then obviously that changes.
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« Reply #68 on: February 28, 2020, 04:56:35 PM »

yeah Lucky was used a lot at start of year, but genius Lapo never evolved his use, or used tendencies with how we used him, to set other things up...and he got pummeled, and yeah I think was replaced more so cause he was wounded, at with QB issues we needed more of a possession guy in Bailey to help out Strev

I bet and hope he is used differently this year, and doubt he gets released regardless, Grant is good...the better punt returner, but Lucky is better at kick-offs, and if Grant gets case of dropsies again..well it's pretty nice having a Whitehead around, plus he was an ultimate teamate when not dressed and sure that has him in coach Osheas good books

He gets cut he would be immediately scooped up
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« Reply #69 on: February 29, 2020, 01:05:56 AM »

people are hard on Adams....Burnham and other "top" receivers get more targets per game, and more chances with intermediate to deep shots..

People forget though he hits paydirt..36 TD's in 80 games played, Burnham has 33 in 82 games played in comparison...and I am certain a lot of TD's have been compromised away from Adam's with our strong ground game especially the last few years with Strev and Harris
great stats to support his worth and if you look at the cost per TD or cost per yard Adams would likely be near the top of that list

I like the way you think my friend

Burnham has 26% of all pass targets directed towards him. Adams only had about 13%. Our pass distribution of targets had 6 receivers with between 54 and 79 with A. Harris having the most. Whitehead came in 2nd with 72.

Adams was tied for 3rd with Demski.

It's clear all our receivers were involved more and equally than compared to the Lions group.


Great info, it's the strength of our offense, as balanced since the Milt / Roberts days, ahh the glory days they are returning my friends
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« Reply #70 on: March 02, 2020, 02:14:41 PM »

great stats to support his worth and if you look at the cost per TD or cost per yard Adams would likely be near the top of that list

I like the way you think my friend

Great info, it's the strength of our offense, as balanced since the Milt / Roberts days, ahh the glory days they are returning my friends

As much as folks have fond memories of Milt et al., fact of the matter is we never won a cup with that cast of now-Bomber legends. I'd argue we are already in our glory days with the Mike O'Shea era. Pad it with another cup win in the near future and it's not arguable.
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« Reply #71 on: March 02, 2020, 04:15:02 PM »

As much as folks have fond memories of Milt et al., fact of the matter is we never won a cup with that cast of now-Bomber legends. I'd argue we are already in our glory days with the Mike O'Shea era. Pad it with another cup win in the near future and it's not arguable.

The vast majority of seasons with Milt and Roberts were losing ones...

That's why we took so much time lauding their achievements, because it was all we had.
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« Reply #72 on: March 02, 2020, 05:34:23 PM »

The vast majority of seasons with Milt and Roberts were losing ones...

That's why we took so much time lauding their achievements, because it was all we had.

Stegall was here longer than Roberts but from 2001 on (when the latter first got here), this team was better more often than it was bad. 2004 and 2005 were the worst and 2008 was mostly forgettable despite making the playoffs. 2001, 2002, and 2007 were a lot of fun even though the ultimate goal was never achieved. 2001 remains a travesty to end all travesties, to be sure.

I'd say everyone took time lauding those achievements because they're both legendary Bombers even if the teams on which they played could never get to the top of the mountain. And that's a real shame, especially for #85. He deserved a much better fate, IMO.
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« Reply #73 on: March 02, 2020, 05:42:27 PM »

Stegall was here longer than Roberts but from 2001 on (when the latter first got here), this team was better more often than it was bad. 2004 and 2005 were the worst and 2008 was mostly forgettable despite making the playoffs. 2001, 2002, and 2007 were a lot of fun even though the ultimate goal was never achieved. 2001 remains a travesty to end all travesties, to be sure.

I'd say everyone took time lauding those achievements because they're both legendary Bombers even if the teams on which they played could never get to the top of the mountain. And that's a real shame, especially for #85. He deserved a much better fate, IMO.

No one's taking away Stegall's legendary status. He is the best there ever was.

What was in dispute was referring to those years as "the glory days". Stegall was a part of four winning seasons (2001-3, 2007). At this moment, we're on the back of four consecutive winning seasons, expecting a fifth.
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« Reply #74 on: March 02, 2020, 06:54:50 PM »

The vast majority of seasons with Milt and Roberts were losing ones...

That's why we took so much time lauding their achievements, because it was all we had.

Agreed.
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« Reply #75 on: March 02, 2020, 08:44:00 PM »

No one's taking away Stegall's legendary status. He is the best there ever was.

What was in dispute was referring to those years as "the glory days". Stegall was a part of four winning seasons (2001-3, 2007). At this moment, we're on the back of four consecutive winning seasons, expecting a fifth.

Fair enough. I agree on those not being glory days because a championship was never realized.
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« Reply #76 on: March 04, 2020, 01:44:28 AM »

No one's taking away Stegall's legendary status. He is the best there ever was.

What was in dispute was referring to those years as "the glory days". Stegall was a part of four winning seasons (2001-3, 2007). At this moment, we're on the back of four consecutive winning seasons, expecting a fifth.


We will likely never see talent like Milt or Roberts again. Plenty of glory there.  As a fan that starting going consistently in the 90s, those years were the most special to me, while what we have now is equal or better.  But yes this club is on the cusp of something very special.  Funny how many couldn't see that until we won the cup LOL.  Classic.
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« Reply #77 on: March 04, 2020, 04:28:21 PM »

I'm excited to see what Lawler, Bailey, Whitehead and Nelson do in TC 2020 along with pre -season.

That said there will be massive competition at receiver as there is every year. IMO only Lawler seems to be a lock. The other 3 showed some good talent and 1 of them could just as easily be starting as not.

Injuries could be a deciding factor in the early going.
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« Reply #78 on: March 04, 2020, 04:46:27 PM »

I'm excited to see what Lawler, Bailey, Whitehead and Nelson do in TC 2020 along with pre -season.

That said there will be massive competition at receiver as there is every year. IMO only Lawler seems to be a lock. The other 3 showed some good talent and 1 of them could just as easily be starting as not.

Injuries could be a deciding factor in the early going.

Overall, that group is not particularly strong. Lawler is probably an underrated threat but hasn't been dominate either. He's the best of the bunch though and an optimistic fan might suggest he's ready for a breakout year. Whitehead and Nelson aren't pure receivers. They are athletic, have similar skill sets and good special teams upside. Nelson hasn't been able to stay healthy. We've shown a ton of patience with Bailey over the last few years and he showed some glimmers in 2019, especially toward the end of the campaign. None of those guys are particularly scary to anyone who doesn't closely follow the Bombers.

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« Reply #79 on: March 04, 2020, 06:00:34 PM »

Overall, that group is not particularly strong. Lawler is probably an underrated threat but hasn't been dominate either. He's the best of the bunch though and an optimistic fan might suggest he's ready for a breakout year. Whitehead and Nelson aren't pure receivers. They are athletic, have similar skill sets and good special teams upside. Nelson hasn't been able to stay healthy. We've shown a ton of patience with Bailey over the last few years and he showed some glimmers in 2019, especially toward the end of the campaign. None of those guys are particularly scary to anyone who doesn't closely follow the Bombers.



B. Banks started in the CFL as primarily a returner. Look at him now.

Lawler has looked good and I expect him to be even better in 2020. But he has to show it in early days. At the moment he's the closest to a lock to start.

Whitehead and Nelson have tremendous speed and elusiveness. Whitehead was our leading receiver as far as actual receptions so I'd disagree somewhat with your view.

Without seeing what rookie receivers might show I'd pick Whitehead starting at the beginning of the season. The fact he's very good on K/O returns doesn't hurt the want / need to have him on the game day AR.

Can he be the next B. Banks? Maybe and maybe not.  Ditto for Nelson who won the starting role out of TC. He was re-signed to a multi year contract so they must have some faith in him.

Bailey wasn't here in 2018 but showed some skill.  At the moment I'd still think he's behind both Whitehead and Nelson but that can change in an instant.

Suggesting the group is not particularly strong is debatable. How much of that was play calling and how much was related to Nichols " game management ". Note that was both a function of play calling and Nichols skill set.

Honestly I'm not sure what to expect with Pierce as the OC and Collaros at QB. It shouldn't take long to see if any fit into the " new " offense or whether rookies rapidly pass them on the depth chart.

Many a poster blamed the lack of " threat " was more Nichols than receiver talent. While I disagree we'll have to see what TC shows.

Logic suggest the season starts with a 1 year vet starting as they groom a rookie or rookies.  That seems to be a MOS operational way of planning.

OTOH we may find the next D. Walker in TC that starts day 1.

Receiver and DB are the contests to watch in TC.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 06:03:25 PM by Blue In BC » Logged

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Blue In BC
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« Reply #80 on: March 04, 2020, 06:37:37 PM »

Info on B. Banks. Just to show it wasn't until his 5th year in the CFL that he became a receiver per se. So I'm willing to cut players like Whitehead and Nelson a little slack due to pure athletic ability.


Year   Team   GP   REC   YARDS   AVG   TD   LNG
2013   HAM   5   9   95   10.60   0   44
2014   HAM   14   42   529   12.60   5   53
2015   HAM   18   22   220   10.00   1   44
2016   HAM   16   32   376   11.80   4   58
2017   HAM   18   67   1011   15.10   8   65
2018   HAM   14   94   1423   15.10   11   78
2019   HAM   16   112   1550   13.80   13   60
2019   HAM   16   112   1550   13.80   13   60
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« Reply #81 on: March 04, 2020, 06:59:25 PM »

Overall, that group is not particularly strong. Lawler is probably an underrated threat but hasn't been dominate either. He's the best of the bunch though and an optimistic fan might suggest he's ready for a breakout year. Whitehead and Nelson aren't pure receivers. They are athletic, have similar skill sets and good special teams upside. Nelson hasn't been able to stay healthy. We've shown a ton of patience with Bailey over the last few years and he showed some glimmers in 2019, especially toward the end of the campaign. None of those guys are particularly scary to anyone who doesn't closely follow the Bombers.



Not sure what your take is or idea is on a pure receiver?..where does that come from? Is it because they excel at returner?..Whitehead in his senior seson had 76 receptions for over 700 yards in 12 games..Even Banks whom many said came into the CFL as not a pure receiver had 123 receptions in his JR and SR years...guys just need a chance in an offence and to use their skill sets...something that in the Lapo era didn't happen much as he had a scheme and system and if it didn't fit his mantra..guys stagnated or flamed out

Grant as well in Highschool had QB experience and his staff at Rutgers used that in sets enabling him to toss 2 TD's while there. Its all how guys are used and deployed and I hope this year we see wayyy more diversity in what we do on offence..We were lucky the last few years that Harris and the o-line were as good as they were because if that got stuffed/solved...Lapo had no answers, and we saw that in many a game while he was here that if/when Harris was keyed on and taken out...we were screwed
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Jesse
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« Reply #82 on: March 04, 2020, 07:37:14 PM »

Info on B. Banks. Just to show it wasn't until his 5th year in the CFL that he became a receiver per se. So I'm willing to cut players like Whitehead and Nelson a little slack due to pure athletic ability.


Year   Team   GP   REC   YARDS   AVG   TD   LNG
2013   HAM   5   9   95   10.60   0   44
2014   HAM   14   42   529   12.60   5   53
2015   HAM   18   22   220   10.00   1   44
2016   HAM   16   32   376   11.80   4   58
2017   HAM   18   67   1011   15.10   8   65
2018   HAM   14   94   1423   15.10   11   78
2019   HAM   16   112   1550   13.80   13   60
2019   HAM   16   112   1550   13.80   13   60

Oh, absolutely. That's why I was pleased to see they're bringing Nelson back (though he's missed a lot of time due to injury so I don't know how much development is happening).

Walters has said repeatedly that you don't see receivers really break out until after their third year in the league. A lot of our crew is now entering that third year, so it'll be fun to see the competition.
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« Reply #83 on: March 04, 2020, 07:39:12 PM »

Not sure what your take is or idea is on a pure receiver?..where does that come from? Is it because they excel at returner?..Whitehead in his senior seson had 76 receptions for over 700 yards in 12 games..Even Banks whom many said came into the CFL as not a pure receiver had 123 receptions in his JR and SR years...guys just need a chance in an offence and to use their skill sets...something that in the Lapo era didn't happen much as he had a scheme and system and if it didn't fit his mantra..guys stagnated or flamed out

Grant as well in Highschool had QB experience and his staff at Rutgers used that in sets enabling him to toss 2 TD's while there. Its all how guys are used and deployed and I hope this year we see wayyy more diversity in what we do on offence..We were lucky the last few years that Harris and the o-line were as good as they were because if that got stuffed/solved...Lapo had no answers, and we saw that in many a game while he was here that if/when Harris was keyed on and taken out...we were screwed

It does not come from university stats - as most come with impressive resumes - it's based on their use in the CFL.
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booch
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« Reply #84 on: March 04, 2020, 07:42:36 PM »

It does not come from university stats - as most come with impressive resumes - it's based on their use in the CFL.
So because a coach avoids using a player appropriately said player becomes not a pure receiver?...thats garbage...Look at Banks...When Austin got basically ushered out and Jones utilized banks skill-set...he took off...and until then wasn't considered a legit receiver..Same could happen with Whitehead, and probably more so as he is built better and would be more durable as a receiver as opposed to what Lapo did with him...basically make him a punching bag for 3-5 defenders
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #85 on: March 04, 2020, 07:44:31 PM »

Oh, absolutely. That's why I was pleased to see they're bringing Nelson back (though he's missed a lot of time due to injury so I don't know how much development is happening).

Walters has said repeatedly that you don't see receivers really break out until after their third year in the league. A lot of our crew is now entering that third year, so it'll be fun to see the competition.

I mistakenly suggested Nelson won a role as a starting receiver out of TC when he actually was the returner in early days. He then moved in to replace Whitehead after he was injured. Then Bailey took over when Nelson was hurt.

I think that's the more actual sequence.

In any case both players are not big and we we threw a bunch of short passes where they were being hit hard immediately by SAM or DHB's.

Not a surprise they were injured.

Anyway. This will be Nelson's 3rd year with the team although he hasn't played that much.

I'm also he's back but his challenge is still going to be difficult.
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« Reply #86 on: March 04, 2020, 07:44:33 PM »

Not sure what your take is or idea is on a pure receiver?..where does that come from? Is it because they excel at returner?..Whitehead in his senior seson had 76 receptions for over 700 yards in 12 games..Even Banks whom many said came into the CFL as not a pure receiver had 123 receptions in his JR and SR years...guys just need a chance in an offence and to use their skill sets...something that in the Lapo era didn't happen much as he had a scheme and system and if it didn't fit his mantra..guys stagnated or flamed out

Grant as well in Highschool had QB experience and his staff at Rutgers used that in sets enabling him to toss 2 TD's while there. Its all how guys are used and deployed and I hope this year we see wayyy more diversity in what we do on offence..We were lucky the last few years that Harris and the o-line were as good as they were because if that got stuffed/solved...Lapo had no answers, and we saw that in many a game while he was here that if/when Harris was keyed on and taken out...we were screwed

So his senior year in college was is 2014. Even if you want to use that as basis for an argument it's been a loooong time. He was certainly not an effective receiver at the NFL level and was used primarily like LaPolice and the Bombers used him, in the short passing/screen game and on special teams. It's possible that instead of it being the OC's system, it's actually his limitations as a player.  Banks absolutely made the transition to a big time receiver and I can see the comparables but they don't always mean anything. Matt Nichols has some comparables to Anthony Calvillo but he's not going to be three time Grey Cup champion.

I don't dislike that group of American receivers it's just that if you take the homer glasses off they're not exactly the strength of our team. We haven't devoted a lot of salary to the import receiver positions and it shows. Compared to a lot of teams we've decided to invest elsewhere. I am not complaining about that, I'm just the reality.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 07:49:00 PM by Sir Blue and Gold » Logged
Jesse
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« Reply #87 on: March 04, 2020, 07:49:33 PM »

So because a coach avoids using a player appropriately said player becomes not a pure receiver?...thats garbage...Look at Banks...When Austin got basically ushered out and Jones utilized banks skill-set...he took off...and until then wasn't considered a legit receiver..Same could happen with Whitehead, and probably more so as he is built better and would be more durable as a receiver as opposed to what Lapo did with him...basically make him a punching bag for 3-5 defenders

I'd argue that Banks is an exception and was absolutely held back for longer than he needed to. That doesn't mean to say he would have been as successful if he was started in year one.

For most, they need to develop into their role and aren't being "inappropriately used" by their coaches. And we've seen time and time again that college stats mean nothing without greater context.
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« Reply #88 on: March 04, 2020, 07:54:29 PM »

So his senior year in college was is 2014. Even if you want to use that as basis for an argument it's been a loooong time. He was certainly not an effective receiver at the NFL level and was used primarily like LaPolice and the Bombers used him, in the short passing/screen game and on special teams. It's possible that instead of it being the OC's system, it's actually his limitations as a player.  Banks absolutely made the transition to a big time receiver and I can see the comparables but they don't always mean anything. Matt Nichols has some comparables to Anthony Calvillo but he's not going to be three time Grey Cup champion.

I don't dislike that group of American receivers it's just that if you take the homer glasses off they're not exactly the strength of our team. We haven't devoted a lot of salary to the import receiver positions and it shows. Compared to a lot of teams we've decided to invest elsewhere. I am not complaining about that, I'm just the reality.

That's true but I think it's by design, based on our QB abilities and OC philosophy. Both of those things are different this year and I'm super excited to see what Buck will do with Collaros. It may be that our shift in talent and offensive approach (along with another year of experience) show that the Baileys, Nelsons and Whiteheads are CFL superstars. It may also show that our entire roster approach was to just go cheap on receiver (and have a core that shows it) and go heavy on defense and a solid run game and only augment those with the "occasional" air attack. Hard to say.

If we land Walker, that's very telling. Or not. I mean, we went after Bowman and Matthews, too. Shrug.
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booch
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« Reply #89 on: March 04, 2020, 07:57:06 PM »

So his senior year in college was is 2014. Even if you want to use that as basis for an argument it's been a loooong time. He was certainly not an effective receiver at the NFL level and was used primarily like LaPolice and the Bombers used him, in the short passing/screen game and on special teams. It's possible that instead of it being the OC's system, it's actually his limitations as a player.  Banks absolutely made the transition to a big time receiver and I can see the comparables but they don't always mean anything. Matt Nichols has some comparables to Anthony Calvillo but he's not going to be three time Grey Cup champion.

I don't dislike that group of American receivers it's just that if you take the homer glasses off they're not exactly the strength of our time. We haven't devoted a lot of salary to the import receiver positions and it shows. Compared to a lot of teams we've decided to invest elsewhere. I am not complaining about that, I'm just the reality.

So he forgot how to be a receiver in 5 years?...even though practicing at the position the whole time..Based on that ideal Banks...whose senior season was in 2009, and first opportunity to truley be a receiver happened in 2017...a much bigger gap, and Lucky had better receiver numbers than Banks as well, though both had piddly amounts even though Banks played an extra year, and Lucky actually would still be down there if not for that mistaken identity thing.

Also guys get pigeon holed (no fault of theirs mind you) and never get a true shot, and Whitehead was pigeon holed by Lapo here...comparables  are comparables I agree, but athleticism is athleticism and smart coaching knows how to fully use that...No knock on Lapo and saying he wsn't smart, but he was very short sited and stuck up on his ideals, and was a true example of fitting a round peg in a square hole kinda guy...was obvious with player use, as well as play calling
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« Reply #90 on: March 04, 2020, 08:18:47 PM »

So he forgot how to be a receiver in 5 years?...even though practicing at the position the whole time..Based on that ideal Banks...whose senior season was in 2009, and first opportunity to truley be a receiver happened in 2017...a much bigger gap, and Lucky had better receiver numbers than Banks as well, though both had piddly amounts even though Banks played an extra year, and Lucky actually would still be down there if not for that mistaken identity thing.

Also guys get pigeon holed (no fault of theirs mind you) and never get a true shot, and Whitehead was pigeon holed by Lapo here...comparables  are comparables I agree, but athleticism is athleticism and smart coaching knows how to fully use that...No knock on Lapo and saying he wsn't smart, but he was very short sited and stuck up on his ideals, and was a true example of fitting a round peg in a square hole kinda guy...was obvious with player use, as well as play calling

I don't think he "forgot". It's just he hasn't shown any ability to deliver those results in the six years since. So while he had a good senior year, so what? Enough time is passed that the subsequent 5 seasons of professional football should also carry weight.

I also don't agree that LaPo was shortsighted and tried to fit him into a "square hole". LaPolice used him in exactly the way he has had success in pro football. Out of the backfield, in the short passing/screen game and on special teams. If LaPolice had try to turn him into a downfield deep threat receiver, that would have been a good example of "round peg square hole" type situation.

You seem to think he is capable of more. You could be right, I have no idea, but I do know he has never done it on a professional football field. It may be that he hasn't been given the opportunity, but more likely he's just been beat out of those spots in the various practices and TCs he's attended. It's not like it takes a genius to look at his speed and quickness and give him a try there. It doesn't always translate to receiving prowess.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 08:21:22 PM by Sir Blue and Gold » Logged
booch
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« Reply #91 on: March 04, 2020, 08:49:54 PM »

I don't think he "forgot". It's just he hasn't shown any ability to deliver those results in the six years since. So while he had a good senior year, so what? Enough time is passed that the subsequent 5 seasons of professional football should also carry weight.

I also don't agree that LaPo was shortsighted and tried to fit him into a "square hole". LaPolice used him in exactly the way he has had success in pro football. Out of the backfield, in the short passing/screen game and on special teams. If LaPolice had try to turn him into a downfield deep threat receiver, that would have been a good example of "round peg square hole" type situation.

You seem to think he is capable of more. You could be right, I have no idea, but I do know he has never done it on a professional football field. It may be that he hasn't been given the opportunity, but more likely he's just been beat out of those spots in the various practices and TCs he's attended. It's not like it takes a genius to look at his speed and quickness and give him a try there. It doesn't always translate to receiving prowess.

Lapo has done this with numerous players, and in his schemes multiple times.

Lapo yes, used Whitehead like others did, (in the pro's) but never deviated anything away from it..so teams sat on it...they few times he ran a stop and go...a sluggo...or wheel route he always had his man beat, and always made the catch when the ball was on target.

Also talking with a couple guys who played in his conference in college he was used a lot stretching the field and as a down field receiver...but like y9ou mentioned, hasn't gotten that opportunity much here...and I don't even count the NFL stuff as pretty much most receivers brought to Canada, rarely got a shot, and were generally under utilized, and in roles not suited to their full capabilities
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« Reply #92 on: March 04, 2020, 08:55:39 PM »

Lapo has done this with numerous players, and in his schemes multiple times.

Lapo yes, used Whitehead like others did, (in the pro's) but never deviated anything away from it..so teams sat on it...they few times he ran a stop and go...a sluggo...or wheel route he always had his man beat, and always made the catch when the ball was on target.

Also talking with a couple guys who played in his conference in college he was used a lot stretching the field and as a down field receiver...but like y9ou mentioned, hasn't gotten that opportunity much here...and I don't even count the NFL stuff as pretty much most receivers brought to Canada, rarely got a shot, and were generally under utilized, and in roles not suited to their full capabilities

Sure, but it can't be both ways. LaPolice used him in the exact way he had proven himself to be good at. That's generally considered good game planning and coaching. I totally get where you're coming from, he could potentially be more than that, but isn't currently. He certainly hasn't convinced an OC in the NFL or CFL to let him do that on a consistent basis in the pros. I guess we'll see what happens this year. He's got another OC and a (somewhat) fresh start.
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TecnoGenius
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« Reply #93 on: March 04, 2020, 09:26:35 PM »

That said there will be massive competition at receiver as there is every year.

Is it just me, or does it seem like we're bringing in way less rookie IMP WR talent this year to compete at TC?  It just seems like we're filling the TC roster with D, and not doing much on O.  I could have sworn the 2019 TC had the WR ranks simply overflowing.

Maybe we're mostly happy with our GC WR guys?
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #94 on: March 04, 2020, 09:35:27 PM »

Is it just me, or does it seem like we're bringing in way less rookie IMP WR talent this year to compete at TC?  It just seems like we're filling the TC roster with D, and not doing much on O.  I could have sworn the 2019 TC had the WR ranks simply overflowing.

Maybe we're mostly happy with our GC WR guys?


It's just you. lol

It's early days. Many of those receivers will be found during the mini camps and after the NFL draft for those that don't get drafted. A few might become available from the XFL rosters as well. At least 1 is on our neg list.

IIRC we have about 5 rookie import receivers signed so far. Can't remember the exact timing but some of the 2018 rookie receivers didn't make it to the main TC. That seems a bit different with all of the 2019 rookies still on the roster.
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« Reply #95 on: March 05, 2020, 12:52:06 AM »

Info on B. Banks. Just to show it wasn't until his 5th year in the CFL that he became a receiver per se. So I'm willing to cut players like Whitehead and Nelson a little slack due to pure athletic ability.


Year   Team   GP   REC   YARDS   AVG   TD   LNG
2013   HAM   5   9   95   10.60   0   44
2014   HAM   14   42   529   12.60   5   53
2015   HAM   18   22   220   10.00   1   44
2016   HAM   16   32   376   11.80   4   58
2017   HAM   18   67   1011   15.10   8   65
2018   HAM   14   94   1423   15.10   11   78
2019   HAM   16   112   1550   13.80   13   60
2019   HAM   16   112   1550   13.80   13   60

great comparison and it helps our prospect are likely pretty cheap as well
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #96 on: March 05, 2020, 02:20:40 PM »

Whitehead in particular showed great speed, elusiveness and vision of the field. He showed that in the 1 game where he had 2 TD's out of what seemed to be simple short pass receptions.

He also showed that in the Argo game where he returned the opening K/O for a TD untouched. Several Argos were left looking for equipment lost on the field.

IMO this is speed along with high football IQ. It's a rare combination and he needs be given more opportunity this season.

Nelson showed some similar flashes but his injury shortened his chances in 2019.

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« Reply #97 on: March 12, 2020, 01:54:24 AM »

Whitehead in particular showed great speed, elusiveness and vision of the field. He showed that in the 1 game where he had 2 TD's out of what seemed to be simple short pass receptions.

He also showed that in the Argo game where he returned the opening K/O for a TD untouched. Several Argos were left looking for equipment lost on the field.

IMO this is speed along with high football IQ. It's a rare combination and he needs be given more opportunity this season.

Nelson showed some similar flashes but his injury shortened his chances in 2019.



LaPo under utilized Whitehead. Most of the time he had Whitehead standing just back of the line of scrimmage by the sideline, by the time Nichols realized he didn't have anyone open in front of him he'd throw the ball across the field to Whitehead. By the time the ball got to Whitehead he was double covered. Didn't give him much of a chance. Now that we have Collaros, who can throw the ball down field with far more accuracy than Nichols could, Whitehead should be going deep.

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« Reply #98 on: March 13, 2020, 01:33:25 AM »

LaPo under utilized Whitehead. Most of the time he had Whitehead standing just back of the line of scrimmage by the sideline, by the time Nichols realized he didn't have anyone open in front of him he'd throw the ball across the field to Whitehead. By the time the ball got to Whitehead he was double covered. Didn't give him much of a chance. Now that we have Collaros, who can throw the ball down field with far more accuracy than Nichols could, Whitehead should be going deep.



Nichols deep ball isn't as poor as you suggest.  Whitehead's success is mostly dictated by his how quickly  he develops as a poor and how he can use his talents / how well he executes.  Collaros should help but its mostly on Whitehead to progress and be consistent.
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booch
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« Reply #99 on: March 13, 2020, 02:29:02 PM »

Nichols deep ball isn't as poor as you suggest.  Whitehead's success is mostly dictated by his how quickly  he develops as a poor and how he can use his talents / how well he executes.  Collaros should help but its mostly on Whitehead to progress and be consistent.
There were probably 4-5 instances a lone I recall where Whitehead had his man beat, and was wide open for the deep shot and our QB's couldn't connect with him, and there were other times he broke away and the QB wasn't even looking at him...his only real consistent usage was dumps and bubble screens, and when a team doesn't deviate from it, or run a different play off it...you get gobbled up...and pulverized...which was exactly what was happening to Lucky

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« Reply #100 on: March 13, 2020, 03:12:39 PM »

There were probably 4-5 instances a lone I recall where Whitehead had his man beat, and was wide open for the deep shot and our QB's couldn't connect with him, and there were other times he broke away and the QB wasn't even looking at him...his only real consistent usage was dumps and bubble screens, and when a team doesn't deviate from it, or run a different play off it...you get gobbled up...and pulverized...which was exactly what was happening to Lucky



I just find it amazing that you can spot this from the stands or TV, but LaPolice, the best offensive coordinator in the CFL, who breaks down game film frame by frame for a living, was completely oblivious to it.

Do you think maybe you're experiencing a little confirmation bias because you are high on Lucky?  Don't be ashamed, we all have favorite players we do it for...  Smiley
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booch
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« Reply #101 on: March 13, 2020, 03:18:33 PM »

I just find it amazing that you can spot this from the stands or TV, but LaPolice, the best offensive coordinator in the CFL, who breaks down game film frame by frame for a living, was completely oblivious to it.

Do you think maybe you're experiencing a little confirmation bias because you are high on Lucky?  Don't be ashamed, we all have favorite players we do it for...  Smiley

For one...not from tv...for two...totally can see it from stands...for 3...Lapo is highly overated...4..Lapo is very stubborn and stuck in his ideals and rarely deviates...5..proven to be a non risk taker/safe coach and will use something to death even if not working..6...i break down film..analyze and prep recruits for combines/draft and development...7 i have and can get access to all 24 film from games...AND have taken such to camps and seminars in Cali where we use it for helping prospects have familiarity in the Canadian game in the chance they choose that route...

Fact of the matter..for all Lapo's pluses...he has many a wart...and have heard as such from many a player
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« Reply #102 on: March 13, 2020, 03:34:10 PM »

I just find it amazing that you can spot this from the stands or TV, but LaPolice, the best offensive coordinator in the CFL, who breaks down game film frame by frame for a living, was completely oblivious to it.

Do you think maybe you're experiencing a little confirmation bias because you are high on Lucky?  Don't be ashamed, we all have favorite players we do it for...  Smiley


The reality is that the Bombers offense is based on a very strong running game and a low risk passing game. Whether that was based to a degree on Nichols inabilities or Lapo stubbornness is almost irrelevant.

We became one of the CFL's highest scoring teams and were having winning seasons.

Having the ability to have a deep quick strike option never hurts but can we really complain about the success we had?

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« Reply #103 on: March 13, 2020, 03:45:21 PM »

The reality is that the Bombers offense is based on a very strong running game and a low risk passing game. Whether that was based to a degree on Nichols inabilities or Lapo stubbornness is almost irrelevant.

We became one of the CFL's highest scoring teams and were having winning seasons.

Having the ability to have a deep quick strike option never hurts but can we really complain about the success we had?



That was kind of my point.  We had a very high level of success using a system designed by Lapo and with him calling the plays.  He certainly has tendencies including using the run and repeated short passing to set up occasional long strikes.  Demski has gotten loose for those deep strikes multiple times, even though he also runs primarily short routes.

I just find it implausible that Lucky is continually wide open for the deep ball and Lapo refuses to call his number because he is stubborn.  If he was open, Lapo would call his number more often.

Lucky's history, as brought forward earlier in this thread by others, is pretty clear.  He is a very talented returner, and in the NFL was used primarily as a returner, but also on jet sweeps and short passes.  There is no evidence of him being particularly effective on deep routes, at the professional level.  Lapolice has used him in a way that is consistent with his past success, and I find it more likely that Lapo was using Lucky in a way to play to his strengths, rather than just being inexplicably stubborn. 
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booch
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« Reply #104 on: March 13, 2020, 03:56:02 PM »

That was kind of my point.  We had a very high level of success using a system designed by Lapo and with him calling the plays.  He certainly has tendencies including using the run and repeated short passing to set up occasional long strikes.  Demski has gotten loose for those deep strikes multiple times, even though he also runs primarily short routes.

I just find it implausible that Lucky is continually wide open for the deep ball and Lapo refuses to call his number because he is stubborn.  If he was open, Lapo would call his number more often.

Lucky's history, as brought forward earlier in this thread by others, is pretty clear.  He is a very talented returner, and in the NFL was used primarily as a returner, but also on jet sweeps and short passes.  There is no evidence of him being particularly effective on deep routes, at the professional level.  Lapolice has used him in a way that is consistent with his past success, and I find it more likely that Lapo was using Lucky in a way to play to his strengths, rather than just being inexplicably stubborn. 

Never said repeatedly...and tho u can't always see it on tv unless they do the full field replay for Suitor to yammer on about something stupid but we have players basically ignored downfield over and over...and if you can get access to game tape...you can really see it..I not just talking Lucky either..and you could see it a lot of times in players body language the frustration, and a lot of times as a season went on their just going through motions...hardly even selling the chance the ball may come to them..and who would blame them

Also...since Lapo's second tour here as the O.C...how many big time receivers..established ones come here in free agency??...yeah...right...none and there was a reason for it...and it wasnt due to $$

Sure we have had a successful offence scoring points true, b ut it was in spite of Lapo's philosophies..he took full advantage of riding Harris until his legs were knubs Harris and playing the safe game, but we also kicked a tonne of field goals i=n his time here, and rode a pretty opportunistic turnover creating defense as well...all good things don't get me wrong but to lay all success on Lapo is insane...
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #105 on: March 13, 2020, 04:11:27 PM »

I don't think anyone is thinking our success was the result of just Lapo as OC. We have had a very good team across the board for several seasons. We played to our strengths. At times it was predictable and lacked as many big strike plays we love.

OTOH our games were entertaining and often had high scoring results.

I've re-watched the Argo Aug 12th game about 3 times. Can't beat starting the game with a K/O return for a TD. Then a long punt return as well. At least two long TD passes to Adams and Demski.

Doesn't get much better than that game.

EDIT: Corrected Lapo comment to OC not HC. Typo
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 01:25:08 PM by Blue In BC » Logged

No more excuses.
pjrocksmb
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This is the CFL- support our league- Go Canada!


« Reply #106 on: March 13, 2020, 06:30:11 PM »

For one...not from tv...for two...totally can see it from stands...for 3...Lapo is highly overated...4..Lapo is very stubborn and stuck in his ideals and rarely deviates...5..proven to be a non risk taker/safe coach and will use something to death even if not working..6...i break down film..analyze and prep recruits for combines/draft and development...7 i have and can get access to all 24 film from games...AND have taken such to camps and seminars in Cali where we use it for helping prospects have familiarity in the Canadian game in the chance they choose that route...

Fact of the matter..for all Lapo's pluses...he has many a wart...and have heard as such from many a player
Lapo had great success here, elsewhere and will continue to.  Perfect no.  I detect a bias.
I don't think anyone is thinking our success was the result of just Lapo as HC. We have had a very good team across the board for several seasons. We played to our strengths. At times it was predictable and lacked as many big strike plays we love.

OTOH our games were entertaining and often had high scoring results.

I've re-watched the Argo Aug 12th game about 3 times. Can't beat starting the game with a K/O return for a TD. Then a long punt return as well. At least two long TD passes to Adams and Demski.

Doesn't get much better than that game.
great post and I agree, lost of value in term of entertainment last season, awesome year, bright future.
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TecnoGenius
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« Reply #107 on: March 14, 2020, 05:33:58 AM »

7 i have and can get access to all 24 film from games...AND have taken such to camps and seminars in Cali where we use it for helping prospects have familiarity in the Canadian game in the chance they choose that route...

I would kill for access to the all-24!!  How on earth did you get that, and is there any chance you can share?  Wink  In fact, why doesn't the CFL put all-24 up somewhere for public access?  Just all-24 of the whole whistled-in game time with no commentary or anything.  It wouldn't spoil their market or anything, as no one would want to watch that as their only viewing of the game.
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booch
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« Reply #108 on: March 16, 2020, 12:31:32 PM »

I would kill for access to the all-24!!  How on earth did you get that, and is there any chance you can share?  Wink  In fact, why doesn't the CFL put all-24 up somewhere for public access?  Just all-24 of the whole whistled-in game time with no commentary or anything.  It wouldn't spoil their market or anything, as no one would want to watch that as their only viewing of the game.

connections allow for it, also for use in training and player development, get lots of the NCAA all 22 as well for this purpose. CFL teams though don't let the general public have access, nor distribute it for some reason I'm not totally sure of...and really makes no sense, so openly sharing it wouldn't be wise. Players also have it on their tablets so many who help at events and camps will use it in showing concepts and plays
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GCn19
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« Reply #109 on: March 17, 2020, 12:33:12 PM »

I agree that Whitehead became a kind of forgotten man in our offence. However, I think part of that was based on what seemed like a lack of chemistry/timing between him and Nichols. Early in the season Lapo took some shots downfield to an open Lucky but it never seemed like he and Nichols were on the same page. That happens sometimes between QB and receiver. I don't blame Lapo for looking away afterwards in that situation, but I think maybe things could be different between he and Collaros. I think it's a leap to say that Lapo used him wrong because the downfield shots were there early on. When they don't produce and you have a guy like Demski who is in a similar role taking advantage of and meshing up it took Lapo in a different direction for improved results.
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