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Author Topic: A Touch of Realism  (Read 3951 times)
the paw
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« on: February 13, 2020, 02:47:44 PM »

Okay, we are all still riding high off the amazing stretch run to bounce back and win the Cup, followed by retaining Willie Jefferson, a dominant defensive player and the most desired free agent this year.  But, even though the WBB did an amazing job retaining almost all of their talent, we need to acknowledge that there is some heavy lifting to do this year.  To wit:

1.  One can debate whether Collaros will be better at QB than Nichols, but statistically it's likely a wash.  Even though we have essentially an intact offence from the Grey Cup game, given the loss of Streveler we are weaker at QB depth, and while I have high hopes for Buck, he ain't Lapo just yet.  So offensively, we are a little weaker.

2.  Johnson was not a marquee signing, but let's assume he's an adequate replacement for the CFL interception leader.  We have still lost an all-star DHB, and retaining Jefferson cost us Nevis and Roh on the d-line rotation.  We have prospects who may be able to fill those roles, but as of right now, our overall defensive line assets are diminished.  Consequently, we are a little weaker on defence as well.

3. Even though we were strong through the playoffs, the team finished third in the West last year.  Now, if Collaros plays 18 games, then comparisons to last year's record are irrelevant.  But if he misses 3-5 games, then the comparison is more apt, particularly since we are not as deep at the position. 

4.  Other teams are making moves to address gaps and shortcomings, while our commitment to holding our roster intact has prevented us from doing so.  Now, just because another team has more roster churn doesn't mean they are necessarily adding more talent.  But what it does mean, is that teams that are dropping guys and adding others at least have a chance to overhaul their salary structure.  It is entirely possible that BC is much more competitive this year, and Edmonton as well. 

None of this is to say we are in trouble, or that we can't have an excellent year.  And of course, the off-season isn't over yet.  But as things stand today, one has to conclude that it will be another dog-fight in the West, and some of our new players are going to have to pan out for us to have success.  Signing Willie doesn't punch our ticket to this year's Cup, so it may be prudent to temper expectations.  Or not....  Smiley
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Jesse
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2020, 02:58:32 PM »

I think that if Collaros is healthy, we'll be amazing, and when/if he is injured, we'll be kind of dog $h!t.

I think that Collaros getting injured on the first drive of the season and missing the rest of the year is more likely than him playing a full 18 games.

That said, we just won the Grey Cup. So I'm going to be positive about the upcoming year and take my enjoyment out of the little things, if not the win/loss record.
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BlueInCgy
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2020, 02:59:45 PM »

Fair assessment.

It's hard to compare Collaros to Nichols for a number of reasons.  Collaros's sample size with the BB is dramatically smaller than Nichols, and had the Bombers ridden Collaros for the entirety of the four games, I suspect his performance would actually have been worse.  Game planning a "QB by committee" approach for the playoff run kept defenses a bit more on their toes than they otherwise would have been.  That being said, I think Collaros has the ability to make better decisions faster, which will likely result in less picks over what Nichols would have done, and he appears to be able to make something out of nothing better than Nichols.  But he also has a higher tendency of getting injured.  That being said, if Whitehead/Lawler/Bailey/Grant continue to develop next year and are utilized effectively by Collaros, there's a potential for a scary good offense.  Don't know if Grant/Whitehead have a high enough ceiling though, but I'd just be happy if Grant could just perform on STs the way he did.

Defense - I think we've lost a lot more than we are realizing right now, but hopefully I'm wrong.  The gelling of the defense over the playoff run last year tends to overshadow their abysmal games mid season.

I am still hoping for a couple of surprise signings this week, there's still some very good talent to be had.


My gut feel right now - We can probably make it to GC 2020, but if we do I don't think we'll have a repeat victory over the Cats.  But February opinions are generally unfounded.
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Ducky
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2020, 03:12:56 PM »



1.  One can debate whether Collaros will be better at QB than Nichols, but statistically it's likely a wash.  Even though we have essentially an intact offence from the Grey Cup game, given the loss of Streveler we are weaker at QB depth, and while I have high hopes for Buck, he ain't Lapo just yet.  So offensively, we are a little weaker.  Collaros is a slight upgrade - more mobile, better arm.  Losing Streveler is huge.  Buck has been learning under LaPo for a few years plus has years of Qb experience.  I think the O planning will be fine.  Maybe less risk adverse.

2.  Johnson was not a marquee signing, but let's assume he's an adequate replacement for the CFL interception leader.  We have still lost an all-star DHB, and retaining Jefferson cost us Nevis and Roh on the d-line rotation.  We have prospects who may be able to fill those roles, but as of right now, our overall defensive line assets are diminished.  Consequently, we are a little weaker on defence as well.  Jefferson, Jeffcoat and McCallister are a great rotation (McCallister replaces Roh just fine).  Nevis leaves a hole in the middle of the line.  Who is replacing him?  Will the run defence suffer?

3. Even though we were strong through the playoffs, the team finished third in the West last year.  Now, if Collaros plays 18 games, then comparisons to last year's record are irrelevant.  But if he misses 3-5 games, then the comparison is more apt, particularly since we are not as deep at the position.  Yup

4.  Other teams are making moves to address gaps and shortcomings, while our commitment to holding our roster intact has prevented us from doing so.  Now, just because another team has more roster churn doesn't mean they are necessarily adding more talent.  But what it does mean, is that teams that are dropping guys and adding others at least have a chance to overhaul their salary structure.  It is entirely possible that BC is much more competitive this year, and Edmonton as well.  Doesn't the same thing happen every year in the CFL?  Walters has proven to be very shrewd.  Our FA signings have been top notch the last few years.  

None of this is to say we are in trouble, or that we can't have an excellent year.  And of course, the off-season isn't over yet.  But as things stand today, one has to conclude that it will be another dog-fight in the West, and some of our new players are going to have to pan out for us to have success.  Signing Willie doesn't punch our ticket to this year's Cup, so it may be prudent to temper expectations.  Or not....  Smiley
 Again, i think the same thing happens every year, no?  Anyone really think the Bombers are going to dominate the West?  Several very good teams.  A key injury(ies) can de rail a season for any of them.  I am confident the WBB will be good.  If a couple new guys excel then they could be very, very good. They have a shot at repeating. That makes me happy.  
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Throw Long Bannatyne
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2020, 03:17:41 PM »

Winning the G.C. last year was the end result of a major miracle, in reality it would not have happened if not for the Collaros late-season trade, so in a sense management was quite lucky to have pulled it off.  The Bombers have not yet demonstrated that they are a dominant team, they certainly have the ability to beat any given CFL team on any given day, but they have not yet put together a consistently dominant season were they recorded the best winning over-all record and claimed first place. 

Many of their close competitors appear to have gotten better through F.A. while the Bombers more or less held their ground as well as could be expected.  At best the West is a dog-fight with the 3 top spots in flux and the potential of having  no weak sisters.  Add a dominant Hamilton team from the East and that makes 4 teams with an almost equal chance of winning this year's G.C., so in my book the Bombers realistically have a 20-25% chance of repeating as champs. 
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 03:27:12 PM by Throw Long Bannatyne » Logged
booch
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« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2020, 03:17:45 PM »

Okay, we are all still riding high off the amazing stretch run to bounce back and win the Cup, followed by retaining Willie Jefferson, a dominant defensive player and the most desired free agent this year.  But, even though the WBB did an amazing job retaining almost all of their talent, we need to acknowledge that there is some heavy lifting to do this year.  To wit:

1.  One can debate whether Collaros will be better at QB than Nichols, but statistically it's likely a wash.  Even though we have essentially an intact offence from the Grey Cup game, given the loss of Streveler we are weaker at QB depth, and while I have high hopes for Buck, he ain't Lapo just yet.  So offensively, we are a little weaker.


2.  Johnson was not a marquee signing, but let's assume he's an adequate replacement for the CFL interception leader.  We have still lost an all-star DHB, and retaining Jefferson cost us Nevis and Roh on the d-line rotation.  We have prospects who may be able to fill those roles, but as of right now, our overall defensive line assets are diminished.  Consequently, we are a little weaker on defence as well.

3. Even though we were strong through the playoffs, the team finished third in the West last year.  Now, if Collaros plays 18 games, then comparisons to last year's record are irrelevant.  But if he misses 3-5 games, then the comparison is more apt, particularly since we are not as deep at the position. 

4.  Other teams are making moves to address gaps and shortcomings, while our commitment to holding our roster intact has prevented us from doing so.  Now, just because another team has more roster churn doesn't mean they are necessarily adding more talent.  But what it does mean, is that teams that are dropping guys and adding others at least have a chance to overhaul their salary structure.  It is entirely possible that BC is much more competitive this year, and Edmonton as well. 

None of this is to say we are in trouble, or that we can't have an excellent year.  And of course, the off-season isn't over yet.  But as things stand today, one has to conclude that it will be another dog-fight in the West, and some of our new players are going to have to pan out for us to have success.  Signing Willie doesn't punch our ticket to this year's Cup, so it may be prudent to temper expectations.  Or not....  Smiley

1. Agree...a lot hinges on Collaros health, that being said if he is healthy he allows us to do more things than Matt did, and having his entire o-line back will help in keeping the offence humming as we just pick right up where we left off..Strev will hurt, but as a Back-up McGuire will give us a different strength thasn Strev...will it work..TBD  

2. Johnson was by many considered one of the best cover DB's available..and our coaching has a pretty keen eye on recognizing and then developing that...Just look at what Rose and Syales have said since they left. Nevis is a major loss, Roh was a nice piece but was not missed when he left lineup...and McCallister will more than fill his role, and if someone beats him out in TC then we in even better shape

3. When you factor in our QB went down game 9...the Andrew suspension...Strev good, but not ready for prime time...Adams missing time and not 100 percent until basically the last game off year and play-offs...3rd is pretty good, and it's not where you finish in standings...it's when your last win happens..our's happened right where we wanted it to

4. Why make moves for the sake of making moves...and if you don't t really have major gaps...then what you gonna do?..break down our core just because? our pre-free agency signings were moves made so we didn't have to make moves...would I have liked to see a big ticket WR..maybe..but not at the expense of re-upping Bryant..Willie..Hardrick..Neuf...among others...TC hasn't even happened and a lot of signings...deletions can happen prior to then, and for once I finally have faith in our scouting to replace old with new if required

This isn't blue tinted view...but to win a cup..bring back all basically who were vital and going into camp continuing on..without re-learning a new system, or new teamates is huge..HUGE...put's us ahead of most teams right outta the gate.

As for lapo leaving..meh..a lot of people give him too much credit..It's a known fact that the offensive staff took input from other coaches and players on play structure and idea's, so who is to really know who created what?..and from what I have been told Buck has been a major piece in creating the game day scheme...so I not worried, especially with a veteran offence who have been together now as a whole for almost 3 years now as a unit basically for the most part, and Lapo didn't own the Winnipeg playbook..The Bombers did so it's not like we starting from scratch
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theaardvark
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« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2020, 03:29:29 PM »

I think that if Collaros is healthy, we'll be amazing, and when/if he is injured, we'll be kind of dog $h!t.

I think that Collaros getting injured on the first drive of the season and missing the rest of the year is more likely than him playing a full 18 games.

That said, we just won the Grey Cup. So I'm going to be positive about the upcoming year and take my enjoyment out of the little things, if not the win/loss record.

Ok, as long as we are taking this defeatist attitude about the entire season hnging on Collaros remaining healthy, consider...

What would Calgary fans think going into last year about their chances if Bo went down?  Arbuckle had 17 completions for 144 yards entering training camp last year.

What would Hamilton fans think their chances would be if Masoli went down?  Evans had 26 completions for 383 yards heading into last season.

I'd say those teams did pretty good overall last year, no?

McGuire is unknown, like Arbuckle and Evans.  But, like those two, he was chosen to be our backup by professional talent scouts and selected to remain here in light of competition.  And those men decided to keep him as their #2 with the likes of Franklin, Pipkin, Jennings available (admittedly, at a higher cost, but nothing unmanageable.)

The brain trust saw what Hamilton and Calgary did with solid rosters and an unproven backup QB.  I bet it made the decision to roll with McGuire a lot easier.
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blue_gold_84
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« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2020, 03:37:36 PM »

Ok, as long as we are taking this defeatist attitude about the entire season hnging on Collaros remaining healthy, consider...

Way to miss the point. Collaros' injury history speaks for itself, so it's a valid point to be worried about the team if he misses any significant time due to injury in 2020. Especially if that injury is of the concussion variety.

Of course losing a QB is precarious for basically every team in this league. But it's markedly different when an injury history such as that of Collaros is considered. It's not the same as a one-time injury like Masoli, Mitchell, et al. has suffered. The WFC has taken a gamble at QB but hopefully the risk has been mitigated by keeping the O-line intact.

Jesse's concern is valid and hardly a "defeatist attitude" as you've mislabeled it. We don't all live in the land of sunshine and blue lollipops, Aardsy.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 03:47:41 PM by blue_gold_84 » Logged

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Sir Blue and Gold
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« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2020, 03:43:43 PM »

The reality is if Collaros gets hurt for a major length of time our season comes down to a lottery ticket named McGuire. It's never good to pin your hopes on winning the lottery but if it comes to that I'll be hoping like the rest of you. In short, despite Aardvark's platitudes, if Collaros goes down it's time to worry.
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Jesse
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« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2020, 03:46:07 PM »

Ok, as long as we are taking this defeatist attitude about the entire season hnging on Collaros remaining healthy, consider...

What would Calgary fans think going into last year about their chances if Bo went down?  Arbuckle had 17 completions for 144 yards entering training camp last year.

What would Hamilton fans think their chances would be if Masoli went down?  Evans had 26 completions for 383 yards heading into last season.

I'd say those teams did pretty good overall last year, no?

McGuire is unknown, like Arbuckle and Evans.  But, like those two, he was chosen to be our backup by professional talent scouts and selected to remain here in light of competition.  And those men decided to keep him as their #2 with the likes of Franklin, Pipkin, Jennings available (admittedly, at a higher cost, but nothing unmanageable.)

The brain trust saw what Hamilton and Calgary did with solid rosters and an unproven backup QB.  I bet it made the decision to roll with McGuire a lot easier.

It's not defeatist. A huge part of a team's success rides on it's QB.

We were something like 4-5 under Streveler last season. That's pretty good under your back up QB, but it's not going to meet expectations around here.

And I'm not complaining. We made our choice at QB and I don't think there was a better one. But it's going to have a huge impact on this season and we don't know if it's for better or for worse just yet.
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BlueInCgy
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« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2020, 03:54:12 PM »

Zach's been knocked out of the last two seasons by the second game.  Apprehension is certainly warranted.

And as much as we can tout the greatness of Strev, it was decades between the last time we actually cultivated a QB in house.  Maybe McGuire's plug and play ready, but I suspect (season risk wise) we're at best in the Pierce/Jyles boat, and more likely in the Pierce/Elliot/Brink/Hall/Goltz/ohgawdmakeitstop boat. 



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Sir Blue and Gold
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« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2020, 03:56:17 PM »

Zach's been knocked out of the last two seasons by the second game.  Apprehension is certainly warranted.

And as much as we can tout the greatness of Strev, it was decades between the last time we actually cultivated a QB in house.  Maybe McGuire's plug and play ready, but I suspect (season risk wise) we're at best in the Pierce/Jyles boat, and more likely in the Pierce/Elliot/Brink/Hall/Goltz/ohgawdmakeitstop boat. 

There's a 'touch of realism' for us.
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3rdand1.5
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« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2020, 03:58:09 PM »

My 2 cents;

Offence
QB- we are worse of this year with Zach and Mc Guire than last year with Nichols and Strev.
WR-we should be better this year, due to familiarity
RB-Equal to last year
O-line- probably tops in the league, and with even better depth this year
Intangibles-we are worse off as Buck is an unknown

Defence
DL-losing Kongbo and Nevis makes us weaker
LB-As good as last year, hopefully Biggie is 100% and if so we will be improved at the LB spot
DB-We lost 2 guys to the NFL, but I am optimistic that we have guys that can step in. In saying that we are weaker than last year
Intangibles-it is to be seen how our DL/rotation, CDN starters are but with the continuity, I say our defence will be better over-all (I really like Alexander at safety)

Special teams
Return- should be even better
Cover-should be tops again
P/K-Medlock still has it, one of the best in the league

Over-all I see us again finishing somewhere in the 1-3 spot n the West. On paper we have a very good team, the culture and leadership seems to be in place, but Buck is not LaPo and Zach does not have the best injury history. Also don't kid yourself that Strev's unique skill set was not a major factor for us, without Strev. teams can scheme against us easier. Mc Quire is not Strev. and should/can not be used like him whether we want to admit it or not, that aspect of our offence is gone. I like our depth better than most teams we should be able to weather injuries better than most teams with the caveat of QB. Hammy by far has the most enviable QB depth in the league.

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TBURGESS
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« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2020, 04:13:07 PM »

Downgrades:

PLAP to Buck - Decade of experience to none at OC.
QB - Huge gamble to go with Collaros backed up by McGuire.
DL - Kongbo allowed us to change the ratio at safety. Nevis stopped the run. Will have to use an NI DT to make our ratio this year.
DB - Sayles and Rose both played well enough to get NFL looks this year. Johnson didn't. Big downgrade here.

Same:

WR - Solid group, but still no #1 receiver
RB - Best in the League
OL - #1 or #2 in the league
LB - Need to play like they did in the last third of the season
Special teams - Solid group.

Upgrades:

None yet.

Looks like first to 3rd in the west unless Collaros goes down early, then it will be hard to make the playoffs.
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theaardvark
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« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2020, 04:18:38 PM »

Way to miss the point. Collaros' injury history speaks for itself, so it's a valid point to be worried about the team if he misses any significant time due to injury in 2020. Especially if that injury is off the concussion variety.

Of course losing a QB is precarious for basically every team in this league. But it's markedly different when an injury history such as that of Collaros is considered. It's not the same as a one-time injury like Masoli, Mitchell, et al. has suffered. The WFC has taken a gamble at QB but hopefully the risk has been mitigated by keeping the O-line intact.

Jesse's concern is valid and hardly a "defeatist attitude" as you've mislabeled it. We don't all live in the land of sunshine and blue lollipops, Aardsy.

Collaros has never played on a team with as much protection as this one.  SSK's Oline was terrible last year, and he was injured on a dirty play, like his first injury.

He has shown he is fully recovered and the team chose him over Nichols, fully aware of his "injury history".  

I'm just saying, don't wish for bad luck, and trust the team knows where it is at.  

 
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