Masoli is just as inexperienced in Grey Cups as Dane Evans, and imho he would not have won that game for the TiCats either. We were just a dominant team that day. Evans didn't really do anything wrong that day, his OL couldn't handle our pass rush. Masoli would have been a dead duck too.
My study looked at years-in-cfl as the indicator of making it to / winning GCs. We'd have to do a "visits to GCs before wins" study to see if it's common/uncommon for QBs to win GCs on their first visit, and what the average # of visits before wins is. I'm not sure it's as important as you think, but I could be wrong (look at Collaros) -- but the years-in-cfl is definitely a valid indicator and Masoli kills Evans on that front.
As for Masoli winning: I'd say the game would have been super close and required a heck of a lot more fight and risk had Masoli been playing. Evans did two things that Masoli wouldn't:
1. Hang on to the ball too long: Evans was doing that most of the night, not satisfied to take the shorter reads.
2. Throw on the run: Evans is clearly a pocket passer, he did basically zero throwing on the run in the GC; Masoli escapes and makes things happen downfield like Flutie.
I said I didn't think Masoli would have beaten the Bombers. I said he would have played better. I don't agree Evans didn't do anything wrong. Pressure made him force the ball into coverage rather than throw it away for example or take the sack. Not being as aware of pocket pressure etc etc.
A more experienced QB doesn't make those mistakes and reads the defense better.
This
...and [Evans'] pissy attitude,lack of leadership and whining and turtling in the Grey Cup tells me he isn't ready for prime time regardless what he did last year during the regular season....he signed his deal...he has to honor it and prove he is better...
This! He was pouting off the field, dissing his OL, and the sideline shots I saw never showed him rallying the troops when they clearly needed rallying. I'm not too aware of Masoli's intangibles, but I'm sure he wouldn't have been yelling at his OL and throwing hissy fits.
IF the Ticats believe Evans is the future, it would be risky to re-sign Masoli. However, I do agree that if both are signed that it should be an open competition in camp. May the best man win...
I think Evans is the future the same way Strev is the future here (yes, I know, Evans is a far better passer). We would like them to be the future, but we realize we aren't winning a cup next year with them as starter. If HAM says Evans is the man and Masoli can walk, then they are doing the same thing SSK is: risking it all on the basis of one season's performance. I think HAM is better run than that to make such a rookie mistake.
The only, only way HAM chooses Evans over Masoli is if HAM is hurting for cap space and wants to spend more on other areas. Yes, they could save massive wads by going full-Rider and running with just Evans, and you can buy a lot of hot FA talent with that wad. But is the risk worth it? If I'm the GM, I'm not choosing the no-Masoli option! YMMV.
I'd love to hear
catfan's take on Evans vs Masoli and his prediction. He should know his team better than all of us combined.