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Author Topic: Why do we think that scouting is the Bombers problem?  (Read 4578 times)
Blue In BC
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« Reply #30 on: January 08, 2019, 10:07:17 PM »

in all honesty I try to only use stats that would most likely be attributed to the secondary, otherwise, I would have included...

that the defense allowed over 100 fewer offensive points than last year, 7th to 2nd...
gave up 15 fewer TDs, 7th to 2nd...
18 fewer passing TDs, 8th to 2nd...
allowed over 900 fewer passing yards, 9th to 5th...
over 50 fewer pass attempts against them, and, allowed 45 fewer completions, and opposing teams had a worse completion % against them this year..
opponents passing efficiency dropped by more than 10 points as well...

I'm sure I could find a few more, but, that really wasn't what I was trying to achieve...

sure, we lost more games this year than last, but we did win a playoff game... maybe we could chalk up a few of those losses to those Pick6's that Nichols threw, you think?

plus, I didn't realize that Bighill played in the secondary, I thought his primary responsibilities were pass rush and run stop...


The negative stats I mentioned are directly attributed to the secondary. Our front 7 improved over 2017 so negative stats have to be attributed to the secondary.  Even if those stats were " somehow " an improvement over 2017, it still ranked us near the bottom in 2018.

I think if you poll Bomber posters they will agree the biggest improvement to our defense in 2018 was the addition of Bighill and elimination of Hurl.

Of course some of the losses could be blamed on Nichols. Are none of the highest scoring offense more than offsetting a couple of really bad games ( plays ) against Regina.

« Last Edit: January 08, 2019, 10:08:52 PM by Blue In BC » Logged

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66 Chevelle
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« Reply #31 on: January 09, 2019, 12:17:45 AM »

The negative stats I mentioned are directly attributed to the secondary. Our front 7 improved over 2017 so negative stats have to be attributed to the secondary.  Even if those stats were " somehow " an improvement over 2017, it still ranked us near the bottom in 2018.

I think if you poll Bomber posters they will agree the biggest improvement to our defense in 2018 was the addition of Bighill and elimination of Hurl.

Of course some of the losses could be blamed on Nichols. Are none of the highest scoring offense more than offsetting a couple of really bad games ( plays ) against Regina.



not looking for an argument or trying to be hard to get along with, apologies if it came across that way... I was sincere in what I posted as I explained it earlier... to me it didn't appear that we were getting beat by the big pass play nearly as bad as last year, that was the point I was trying to convey...
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #32 on: January 09, 2019, 01:36:35 AM »

not looking for an argument or trying to be hard to get along with, apologies if it came across that way... I was sincere in what I posted as I explained it earlier... to me it didn't appear that we were getting beat by the big pass play nearly as bad as last year, that was the point I was trying to convey...

I didn't take it that way and you are correct that we are giving up less big plays and points than in 2017. I only view that a win if we actually win more games as a result.

My point that it can be even worse when a defense allows long time consuming drives in the bend but don't break concept. The offense has to take some of that heat for NOT staying on the field longer at times.

However it's a two way street when the defense is closer to the bottom in 1st downs given up  passing and % of completions etc. The defense is as responsible for getting the opponents off the field as our offense is responsible for staying on the field longer.

One NFL example from this weekend's Colts / Texan game. I didn't watch all of it but thought I heard the broadcasters mention that midway through the 3rd Q the Texans had -19 yards passing had just created their 1st 1st down of the half.

You can't expect that to happen all the time but I would like to see it more often than I see long drives against our defense. That's true whether or not the opponent scores or we force a turnover.

It becomes a question of mathematical probability. If a team makes a long time consuming drive they are more likely to score at least a FG then turnover the ball. Field position and TOP are also critical factors in game management.

IMO that's where we struggle with our DC scheme and talent ( possibly to a lesser degree than in past ).
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 01:44:55 AM by Blue In BC » Logged

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66 Chevelle
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« Reply #33 on: January 09, 2019, 03:17:24 AM »

I agree with what you are saying, I was just excited because by the end of the year we actually looked like a real defense, for the most part, lol. Plus, I've been working on my end of year team summary stats sheet for 2018 and instead of creating a complete new  document I combined it with 2017's end of year stat info so everyone could easily see how we compared to year before. I was surprised at how many defensive stats we improved upon and the amount of overall improvement. I'll be posting that info here on the board as soon as I get it completed, probably in the next day or two.

Like you, I'm a big believer in 'time of possession', and was pleasantry surprised that we improved in that area as well, by over a minute! We are to the point where we are holding onto the ball for for almost exactly half of the time, 30:03. I'd like to see that go up a bit more but better than it has been.

I also agree with you about Bighill, he was the best signing of last year and made the entire defense exponentially better, including the secondary...  sure hope he wants to be in Winnipeg as badly as we all want him here...

However, I'm still not sold on the idea that finding an impact receiver will help the team. Not that one couldn't help, but based upon what I've seen in regards to receiver and how they are used, it's not that we won't find one, but won't know if we did. Unless, we move on from Dressler, then there may be some opportunity there.

We don't seem to give them much opportunity and most plays have them at the number 4 or 5 option, so limited throws. And then they float back and forth from the PR to the AR and then eventually cut them without giving them much playing time. That and our ball control offensive scheme, well, it makes it tough for the new guy to shine, especially we they are new to the CFL and having to get use to the difference in game and especially the waggle...

With that being said, I'm happy with the group we have now, especially the national talent. They all have a lot of upside. I think Woli really had a good year last year, I like Peterman, his numbers weren't all that great buy I like the way he played, and Demski showed flashes of what could be from time to time. As a team though, every year you have to be concerned what product we will field with these short contracts... but I guess we'll start answering those questions shortly...
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #34 on: January 09, 2019, 02:33:00 PM »

I also like the roster we had in 2018 with very few exceptions. Even though we didn't win as many games we were very entertaining and competitive. Every team has 3 or 4 clunkers during the season.

We won the WSF and nearly won the WDF.

The National talent has improved every season and we've got some high draft picks for 2019.

The number of top free agents we have is a concern at the moment. Walters has been very good at getting players to re-sign. Regardless we have 12 starters potentially going to free agency and 3 looking at NFL options ( Jeffcoat, JSK and Alexander ). So this is a wait and see issue at the moment.

I do believe our import receivers need to be improved. SMS aside I'd like to see a bigger / faster / better # 2 import receiver push Dressler to the # 3 import spot. Dressler has become more of a possession receiver than a deep threat.

We don't really have " that " import guy that will fight and win the 50/50 balls over the shorter DB's. Maybe Woli should be moved more inside more often? Maybe Petermann and Simonise see the field more often?
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 03:01:26 PM by Blue In BC » Logged

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BLUEBOMBER
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« Reply #35 on: January 16, 2019, 06:27:49 AM »

Our scouting department is okay.. not great though..
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66 Chevelle
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« Reply #36 on: January 18, 2019, 09:54:44 AM »

Our scouting department is okay.. not great though..

again, I say that you can't blame talent signed or not signed all on the scouts... for one thing, we don't know what is being asked of them and the second thing, GM's aren't interested in signing the best available talent at every position possible.  GMs are looking to sign the best talent available that they feel that they can sign again after playing out their ELC contract. A good GM knows he can't keep all of the talent and any one that he doesn't sign now can be used against you by another team. GMs look at ratio, current stars and future free agent needs when signing new players. Honestly, there is just a number of players that are signed that are just good enough to not hurt your team but not so good as to become wanted by other teams. just the economics of the game... some are just expendable...
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #37 on: January 18, 2019, 05:18:07 PM »

again, I say that you can't blame talent signed or not signed all on the scouts... for one thing, we don't know what is being asked of them and the second thing, GM's aren't interested in signing the best available talent at every position possible.  GMs are looking to sign the best talent available that they feel that they can sign again after playing out their ELC contract. A good GM knows he can't keep all of the talent and any one that he doesn't sign now can be used against you by another team. GMs look at ratio, current stars and future free agent needs when signing new players. Honestly, there is just a number of players that are signed that are just good enough to not hurt your team but not so good as to become wanted by other teams. just the economics of the game... some are just expendable...

I don't buy the signing of players they think they can re-sign after their ELC deals. Football teams are built or re-built in the course of 1 off season potentially.

Teams can go from 1st to last so teams look to field the best team possible. With shorter contracts and now 1 year NFL options, it would be foolish to not try and roster the best you can find.

Not many cuts from TC find there way onto other teams for any significant success. It does happen but most are just PR players that are gone after 1 season.
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66 Chevelle
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« Reply #38 on: January 19, 2019, 07:38:05 PM »

I don't buy the signing of players they think they can re-sign after their ELC deals. Football teams are built or re-built in the course of 1 off season potentially.

Teams can go from 1st to last so teams look to field the best team possible. With shorter contracts and now 1 year NFL options, it would be foolish to not try and roster the best you can find.

Not many cuts from TC find there way onto other teams for any significant success. It does happen but most are just PR players that are gone after 1 season.

while not the primary decision factor, I do think that it plays into the equation from a financial and competitive stand point. Given the SMS cap there are only so many players that you can sign at 'X' amount of money... after you take out money for your 'stars', QB and national talent you have only so much money to fill out your team. with that being said, any talent that you find that you can't afford to re sign means they are going to be playing against you.

now I'm not saying that all players are signed in this manner but I would think that it's within reason to believe some are. As a GM I'm looking for those 'stars' to keep and expendable, serviceable talent for the rest of my positions... because I know that at the end of any given year there is not enough money to keep everybody so some have to go... I'd rather they go home than to my competition...
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Blue In BC
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« Reply #39 on: January 19, 2019, 10:16:05 PM »

while not the primary decision factor, I do think that it plays into the equation from a financial and competitive stand point. Given the SMS cap there are only so many players that you can sign at 'X' amount of money... after you take out money for your 'stars', QB and national talent you have only so much money to fill out your team. with that being said, any talent that you find that you can't afford to re sign means they are going to be playing against you.

now I'm not saying that all players are signed in this manner but I would think that it's within reason to believe some are. As a GM I'm looking for those 'stars' to keep and expendable, serviceable talent for the rest of my positions... because I know that at the end of any given year there is not enough money to keep everybody so some have to go... I'd rather they go home than to my competition...

The number of neg list players is only 405 players in total. That will include players already in the NFL and some still in college as future players to keep an eye on. As we know, players are added and dropped at will after tryout camps, bowl games and so on.

Not every team is after or interested in the same given player. A team needing a " receiver " or DB might be inclined to neg list more candidates at those roster positions for example.

I'd be curious to see what player signings were the result of neg list finds and how long they were on the list. IE: If a mini camp is held April 4 and a couple of players are added and ultimately signed and brought to TC. Or were some players on the list for a couple of years through college and then brought to mini camps and then signed.

I can't think of any way this sort of information can be found. Regardless I don't think it matters. We've already signed 8 players I've never heard of before.  By TC that number will be in the 30 - 40 as additions and deletions are made.

Most rookies that make any roster are probably going to be at ELC. Obviously there are always SMS parts to the equation.

We might lose Alexander to the NFL. Did we think that might happen when we signed him 2 years ago? Probably not. He may get replaced by another rookie on an ELC of we might sign a CFL veteran at a higher cost.

Balancing the roster, ratio and the SMS is not an easy task.

I used the example of losing JSK and Loffler. For the same amount of money and the need to balance the ratio, I thought Lokombo might be a player to consider.

OTOH, I'd love to have both JSK and Loffler back. That happening may not be in our control any more than knowing Lokombo reaches free agency and might join the Bombers at an affordable price.

It's always a question of what happens 1st. If JSK indicates he's coming back then we don't need to find a new player at WIL. Although if we lose Loffler than the ratio becomes a player in the decisions.

Both of those decisions could be decided in the first couple of hours of free agency.
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66 Chevelle
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« Reply #40 on: January 20, 2019, 01:14:03 AM »

The number of neg list players is only 405 players in total. That will include players already in the NFL and some still in college as future players to keep an eye on. As we know, players are added and dropped at will after tryout camps, bowl games and so on.

Not every team is after or interested in the same given player. A team needing a " receiver " or DB might be inclined to neg list more candidates at those roster positions for example.

I'd be curious to see what player signings were the result of neg list finds and how long they were on the list. IE: If a mini camp is held April 4 and a couple of players are added and ultimately signed and brought to TC. Or were some players on the list for a couple of years through college and then brought to mini camps and then signed.

I can't think of any way this sort of information can be found. Regardless I don't think it matters. We've already signed 8 players I've never heard of before.  By TC that number will be in the 30 - 40 as additions and deletions are made.

Most rookies that make any roster are probably going to be at ELC. Obviously there are always SMS parts to the equation.

We might lose Alexander to the NFL. Did we think that might happen when we signed him 2 years ago? Probably not. He may get replaced by another rookie on an ELC of we might sign a CFL veteran at a higher cost.

Balancing the roster, ratio and the SMS is not an easy task.

I used the example of losing JSK and Loffler. For the same amount of money and the need to balance the ratio, I thought Lokombo might be a player to consider.

OTOH, I'd love to have both JSK and Loffler back. That happening may not be in our control any more than knowing Lokombo reaches free agency and might join the Bombers at an affordable price.

It's always a question of what happens 1st. If JSK indicates he's coming back then we don't need to find a new player at WIL. Although if we lose Loffler than the ratio becomes a player in the decisions.

Both of those decisions could be decided in the first couple of hours of free agency.

I will say this, being a GM in this league has to be a very hard job to be consistently successful in... especially when you figure that you will probably turn as much as half your team every year, two years for sure...

sure, the negotiation list consist of only 405 players, but, there are only about 200 imports in the league... I agree that most spots are being taken up by prospective NFL players that get cut and future hedges from the college ranks...  but when you consider that the NFL drafts only 256 players each year for 32 teams, and that the majority of them will not make it in the league, that the starting caliber of professional players can be consumed rather quickly...

but unless you have prior and probably significant playing time in the NFL, you're going to have to come to the league via a ELC... and from what I've read, all imports, as long as the meet the criteria, will be signed off the negotiation list...

but, at the end of the day, you know that almost every ELC player will think they deserve a raise, some you will be able to absorb, others will be let go and replaced with another crop of new ELC players, for the most part. you just have to hope that your ELC hurt you down the road playing with someone else... because you know you will let go most of them...

I think it would be very interesting to see the entire negotiation list for all teams, could be very telling...
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theaardvark
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« Reply #41 on: January 20, 2019, 04:24:30 PM »

As mentioned elsewhere, you can use your neg list as a recruiting tool, or a bargaining tool.  What does having a guy like Kaeperninck on your list do if you already have a QB?  It give you leverage to a team that NEEDS Kaeperninck should he suddenly decide to play one year in the CFL (all entry contracts are 2 years, yes, but there is the NFL window now...

Hamilton seems to use the list for bargaining, I don't think Walters does. 

THe players will probably get modifications to the Neg list in the new CBA if they are smart. 
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66 Chevelle
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« Reply #42 on: January 20, 2019, 08:49:01 PM »

As mentioned elsewhere, you can use your neg list as a recruiting tool, or a bargaining tool.  What does having a guy like Kaeperninck on your list do if you already have a QB?  It give you leverage to a team that NEEDS Kaeperninck should he suddenly decide to play one year in the CFL (all entry contracts are 2 years, yes, but there is the NFL window now...

Hamilton seems to use the list for bargaining, I don't think Walters does. 

THe players will probably get modifications to the Neg list in the new CBA if they are smart. 

I doubt it, it only effects imports and only those that have not signed a contract yet... the ones that are already in the league won't care because they have already, or are currently, enduring the effects and the others, the ones yet to come north, have no clue or a voice as of yet...
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Tehedra
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« Reply #43 on: January 21, 2019, 01:53:16 AM »

I doubt it, it only effects imports and only those that have not signed a contract yet... the ones that are already in the league won't care because they have already, or are currently, enduring the effects and the others, the ones yet to come north, have no clue or a voice as of yet...

I agree; its just not going to be a holding point for the CBA
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In Motion
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« Reply #44 on: January 21, 2019, 06:57:20 PM »

The problem is our scouts can't seem to find us a couple of really GREAT
receivers and kick returners. We need to upgrade in both departments,
and that's been the case for many years now in my opinion. 
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