Blue Bombers Forum
July 20, 2019, 07:50:38 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News:
 
   Home   Help Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: thought that this could be fun  (Read 643 times)
66 Chevelle
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3680


« on: January 28, 2019, 04:40:35 PM »

the info below is estimated stats for 7 receivers, not necessarily for a season, rather, if given the same opportunity (all played the same number of games and had the same amount of targets) what their production would look like when coupled with actual 2018 game production... we know this could never happen, but, unless you create a base line and try to create data that allows you to compare one to another with like criteria, it's hard to say who did good, or not... I know it's not an exact representation of what actual would be, but it gives you an idea...



the 7 players above are Adams, Demski, Dressler, Washington, Thompkins, Petermann, and Woli... in the next couple of days I'll post who is who... which players do you keep and who do you cut based upon the info above? lol

also, since there has been a lot of talk in the past relative to our receiver production, and more specifically their inability to gain yards after the catch, I did a little research and was a little surprised with the results... in 2018, Bomber receivers actually ranked 2nd in yards after the catch per completion against the league, averaging 5.1 yards gained per catch... more surprisingly, at least to me, was that Montreal led the league with an average of 5.6 yards gained per catch...

also, for those players typically leading the receiving yardage race and considered to be the play makers, their individual YAC per catch was not very flattering... of the top 15 receivers in yards gained, only 1 finished in the top 15 in YAC per catch, Derel Walker was 11th ranked... next was Eugene Lewis who was 22nd, Duke Williams came in at 33rd... and the worse finisher was S.J. Green who came in at a disappointing 66th of the top 75...

Bombers had finishers of 1st, 5th, 20th, 22nd, 33rd, 2 at 44th and 54th....
Logged

just because you can doesn't mean you should...
Blue In BC
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 22846


« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2019, 06:20:47 PM »

I'm picking P1 and P6 based on that chart. In reality is there isn't enough information to really make this more than a game per se.

I'll take a receiver than gets 4 yards on 2nd and 2 than another receiver than always gets 8 yards on 2nd and 10. While the second receiver is getting more yards, it's not what was needed.

So # of receptions, yardage, YAC and average yardage are important but only part of the picture.

The other reality is you can't extrapolate 3 games production for example into an 18 game schedule. Production varies against different opponent and different situations.

IE: Corey Washington in game 18. 1 reception 80 yards.

If it was as easy as that it would be easier to decide everything. lol
« Last Edit: January 28, 2019, 06:53:19 PM by Blue In BC » Logged

No more excuses.
66 Chevelle
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 3680


« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2019, 07:46:43 PM »

I'm picking P1 and P6 based on that chart. In reality is there isn't enough information to really make this more than a game per se.

I'll take a receiver than gets 4 yards on 2nd and 2 than another receiver than always gets 8 yards on 2nd and 10. While the second receiver is getting more yards, it's not what was needed.

So # of receptions, yardage, YAC and average yardage are important but only part of the picture.

The other reality is you can't extrapolate 3 games production for example into an 18 game schedule. Production varies against different opponent and different situations.

IE: Corey Washington in game 18. 1 reception 80 yards.

If it was as easy as that it would be easier to decide everything. lol

you're absolutely right, the end product is skewed by the lack of a sufficient enough amount of base data in which to compute... but, what I did to try and keep it within reason, I took the total number of pass attempts for the group and they used the average to apply to each individually and then used each's completion percentage to arrive at number of catches... the other data items, like TDs, 30+, etc, were calculated by their individual per game amount multiplied by a full season...

it gets slow in the off season, lol... trying to add some filler for discussions...  Grin

here is the full chart...

Logged

just because you can doesn't mean you should...
Blue In BC
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 22846


« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2019, 10:14:49 PM »

you're absolutely right, the end product is skewed by the lack of a sufficient enough amount of base data in which to compute... but, what I did to try and keep it within reason, I took the total number of pass attempts for the group and they used the average to apply to each individually and then used each's completion percentage to arrive at number of catches... the other data items, like TDs, 30+, etc, were calculated by their individual per game amount multiplied by a full season...

it gets slow in the off season, lol... trying to add some filler for discussions...  Grin

here is the full chart...



Maybe now fill in the actual for each receiver and see the difference.

BTW, using Adams as an example: The type of pass you throw to a given receiver is relevant as well. IE: Adams was the deep threat so the ability to complete a pass becomes less of a statistical possibility than one that is only seeing passes in the 5 - 10 yard range.

Adams would more likely see coverage from a top DB while other choices would not.

That was part of the similar look at the DB's discussing targets, completions etc. Randle had the most targets but gave up less TD's and less completions % playing against better receivers.

Anyway and interesting look and yes it's a long slow off season waiting for re-signings at the moment.
Logged

No more excuses.
TecnoGenius
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 2856


« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2019, 05:31:17 AM »

Bit surprised Demski shows so low on many stats.  However, it obviously doesn't take into account his dual-threat nature (run game), which of course makes him more valuable.

... just don't add fumbles/gm into the chart...

I had guessed Dress had the most TDs, but it does makes sense Adams was #1 and Dress #2.  RZ/EZ production is also something that is important.

I think the n00bs on the list benefited from being the "forgotten man" in D schemes that left them the least covered.

BinBC was right: a stat for "2nd down conversions" would be extremely useful.  Think Sinopoli (just not in the GC).  And Thick Nik when he was still around.
Logged
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.2 | SMF © 2006-2007, Simple Machines LLC Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!