NHL Discussion (Other than Jets)

Started by AngryGreg, January 26, 2014, 04:25:21 PM

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blue_gold_84

Quote from: New_Earth_Mud on April 29, 2018, 03:25:19 PM
Both games yesterday were pretty good.

Agreed. The Bolts looked slow and sloppy and a feisty Bruins team took advantage. The Knights-Sharks game was crazy good, too.
#forthew
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Jesse

Quote from: New_Earth_Mud on April 29, 2018, 04:50:43 PM

Yup.  Kinda sad.  Oh well.

I missed Cheery so im not sure what hes talking about.

Cherry is generally incoherent. I?m also not sure why he?s still on tv.
My wife is amazing!

blue_gold_84

#forthew
лава Україні!
Don't be a Rich.

blue_gold_84

#forthew
лава Україні!
Don't be a Rich.

theaardvark

Kane, reportedly 7 yrs at 7Mil per...  thanks San Jose for throwing a wrench in everyone's cap...

GM's will be using the term "outlier" a lot in reference to Kane...
Unabashed positron.  Blue koolaid in my fridge.  I wear my blue sunglasses at night.  Homer, d'oh.

Colton

Quote from: dd on May 23, 2018, 04:59:36 AM
OMG, seriously?!?

The GM should be admitted into a substance abuse program immediately, this is serious!!!

The Sharks need scoring, Kane played very well for us before his injury, and barring a Tavares signing they have a lot of cap space. I've got no problem locking down Kane at 7M.

Sir Blue and Gold

#2676
Quote from: theaardvark on May 23, 2018, 04:19:31 AM
Kane, reportedly 7 yrs at 7Mil per...  thanks San Jose for throwing a wrench in everyone's cap...

GM's will be using the term "outlier" a lot in reference to Kane...

Seems high for Kane.

Here are some random Jets AAV comparables: Schiefele is $6.125M. Ehlers is $6M. Wheeler is $5.6M
Some others: Stamkos is $8.5M, Marchessault is $5M, Tarasenko is $7.5M

Colton

#2677
Quote from: Sir Blue and Gold on May 23, 2018, 02:54:44 PM
Seems high for Kane.

Here are some random Jets AAV comparables: Schiefele is $6.125M. Ehlers is $6M. Wheeler is $5.6M
Some others: Stamkos is $8.5M, Marchessault is $5M, Tarasenko is $7.5M

Those aren't really the most fair comparables. Scheifele, Ehlers, Wheeler, and Tarasenko were all RFA's that had been playing in their cities for years (3 of the 4 drafted by the club they resigned with). Stamkos definitely took a discount to resign with the team that drafted him as well in order to keep the team competitive.

Marchessault had a season and a half under his belt as an established NHLer when he signed his deal. He signed it midway through this current season, and his previous stat totals were:
30G/21A=51P in 75G
7G/11A=18P in 45G
1G/0A=1P in 2G
0G/0A=0P in 2G

Kane was on pace with the Sharks to score about the same amount of goals in an 82 game season as Marchessault had career goals scored at the time of his 5M contract signing.

Kane has 26 games under his belt as a Shark. There was no loyalty at play there that would lead to any kind of discount and the cap is going to increase significantly. The fair comparables are the contracts you are going to see signed in July.

Regardless, for 7M, I would ask who else is available that the Sharks could acquire to fill the offensive role Kane is going fill.

Of current contracts, Bobby Ryan or Ryan Kesler would be closer to fair comparisons in my own opinion. Even then those were signed under a smaller cap though

gbill2004

Quote from: Colton on May 23, 2018, 04:11:00 PM
Those aren't really the most fair comparables. Scheifele, Ehlers, Wheeler, and Tarasenko were all RFA's that had been playing in their cities for years (3 of the 4 drafted by the club they resigned with). Stamkos definitely took a discount to resign with the team that drafted him as well in order to keep the team competitive.

Marchessault had a season and a half under his belt as an established NHLer when he signed his deal. He signed it midway through this current season, and his previous stat totals were:
30G/21A=51P in 75G
7G/11A=18P in 45G
1G/0A=1P in 2G
0G/0A=0P in 2G

Kane was on pace with the Sharks to score about the same amount of goals in an 82 game season as Marchessault had career goals scored at the time of his 5M contract signing.

Kane has 26 games under his belt as a Shark. There was no loyalty at play there that would lead to any kind of discount and the cap is going to increase significantly. The fair comparables are the contracts you are going to see signed in July.

Regardless, for 7M, I would ask who else is available that the Sharks could acquire to fill the offensive role Kane is going fill.
Good analysis.  Plus the FA market for top wingers this off season is limited.  Plus Kane is only 26 years old so the risk level is lower compared to guys last year like Ladd and Backes etc. 

Sir Blue and Gold

#2679
Quote from: Colton on May 23, 2018, 04:11:00 PM
Those aren't really the most fair comparables. Scheifele, Ehlers, Wheeler, and Tarasenko were all RFA's that had been playing in their cities for years (3 of the 4 drafted by the club they resigned with). Stamkos definitely took a discount to resign with the team that drafted him as well in order to keep the team competitive.

Marchessault had a season and a half under his belt as an established NHLer when he signed his deal. He signed it midway through this current season, and his previous stat totals were:
30G/21A=51P in 75G
7G/11A=18P in 45G
1G/0A=1P in 2G
0G/0A=0P in 2G

Kane was on pace with the Sharks to score about the same amount of goals in an 82 game season as Marchessault had career goals scored at the time of his 5M contract signing.

Kane has 26 games under his belt as a Shark. There was no loyalty at play there that would lead to any kind of discount and the cap is going to increase significantly. The fair comparables are the contracts you are going to see signed in July.

Regardless, for 7M, I would ask who else is available that the Sharks could acquire to fill the offensive role Kane is going fill.

Of current contracts, Bobby Ryan or Ryan Kesler would be closer to fair comparisons in my own opinion. Even then those were signed under a smaller cap though

Sure -- but the sample size is really low and Kane hasn't been a good fit in Winnipeg or Buffalo. It should be noted that it started off fine in both places. You're right that maybe my examples weren't the exact same situation however they do give you a sense of what you can get for that type of money in the NHL. Kane has only been above 50 points once ((in 11-12) which would have put him 82 in the NHL tied with Kyle Conner, Seth Jones and Thomas Vanek this year) and he's only played more than 70 games in a season twice (73 and 74 in 2010-11, 2011-12). You're probably right that he's one of the best option available and that 7M was going to be what it took, but I wouldn't be enthused. He'll be 27 in two months so that takes him to 34. If the Sharks were my team, I'd be pretty nervous about that deal.

blue_gold_84

I know the sample size with the Sharks was small, but his possession metrics (corsi and fenwick) were career highs, his PDO tied his second best career mark, as well as his GPG and PPG averages being career highs.

Evander Kane never got off to a start with either the Thrashers, the Jets, or the Sabres like he did with the Sharks at the trade deadline.

The cap hit, while high, is the cost of doing business. The Sharks need a winger of his calibre.
#forthew
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Don't be a Rich.

Colton

Quote from: Sir Blue and Gold on May 23, 2018, 06:35:10 PM
Sure -- but the sample size is really low and Kane hasn't been a good fit in Winnipeg or Buffalo. It should be noted that it started off fine in both places. You're right that maybe my examples weren't the exact same situation however they do give you a sense of what you can get for that type of money in the NHL. Kane has only been above 50 points once ((in 11-12) which would have put him 82 in the NHL tied with Kyle Conner, Seth Jones and Thomas Vanek this year) and he's only played more than 70 games in a season twice (73 and 74 in 2010-11, 2011-12). You're probably right that he's one of the best option available and that 7M was going to be what it took, but I wouldn't be enthused. He'll be 27 in two months so that takes him to 34. If the Sharks were my team, I'd be pretty nervous about that deal.

I wasn't really trying to predict him to play that way over the course of a season, more so just trying to illustrate that Marchessault is a bit of an outlier to be compared to. It's not often a player goes from a $750,000 non entry level contract, to a $5,000,000 one.

theaardvark

I'm thinking Kane at $5mil is overpaying... based on his previous performance.  If you are basing on potential, maybe... but the comparables just don't come close...  he is so far behind any other $7mil player, never mind 7 years...  will the cap go up so much that he ends up being good value at the end of it?  Not likely... he probably won't play to the end of the deal. 

8% of a teams total cap space tied up in Kane just does not make sense...
Unabashed positron.  Blue koolaid in my fridge.  I wear my blue sunglasses at night.  Homer, d'oh.

Sir Blue and Gold

Quote from: Colton on May 23, 2018, 08:19:10 PM
I wasn't really trying to predict him to play that way over the course of a season, more so just trying to illustrate that Marchessault is a bit of an outlier to be compared to. It's not often a player goes from a $750,000 non entry level contract, to a $5,000,000 one.

Ya, that's fair for sure. Good point.

The Zipp

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OVI!!!!

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