Likely regular season outcome? (and tiebreaking rules!)

[Mick]

Ya, as a programmer I find it funny, but kind of understandable, that the league probably didn't pay someone to program all those crazy multi-level tie rules into the standings web page.

I bet none of it is automated and it's just some dude who logs in after the games and updates the chart manually.      And the dude is probably as confused as to how the tiebreaking works as many of us are/were.

https://stats.cfl.ca/standings is now correct.

[gobombersgo]

Derek Taylor🏈   @DTonOB

Seeing some Qs about a 3-way WPG/SSK/CGY tiebreaker. As I read it:

WPG: 3-2 (.600 win%)
SSK: 2-2 (.500)
CGY: 2-3 (.400)

And last season the CFL confirmed they break *all the ties* with the step. Not break the first tie then go back to the beginning.

[Throw Long Bannatyne]

Ya, as a programmer I find it funny, but kind of understandable, that the league probably didn't pay someone to program all those crazy multi-level tie rules into the standings web page.

I bet none of it is automated and it's just some dude who logs in after the games and updates the chart manually.      And the dude is probably as confused as to how the tiebreaking works as many of us are/were.

Imagine all this technological advancement and the Bomber roster is  worse at tracking the the latest roster changes than it was when done by human hand, it's always too late, inaccurate and useless.

The problem is it's no longer someone's job to keep the information up to date.  All it takes is a line of code from Genius to automatically update the roster, but it constantly fails to  deliver, so apathy and misinformation becomes the accepted norm in place of dependability and we are presented with obsolete information which is virtually worthless.

I'm not into conspiracies but is this interference directed from the gambling industry to make statistical information more unreliable so more bets are placed based on emotion than knowledge and data? Is Genius tied in with online gambling in anyway?

[Tecno]

Imagine all this technological advancement and the Bomber roster is  worse at tracking the the latest roster changes than it was when done by human hand, it's always too late, inaccurate and useless.

Ya, like the depth charts.  Check out:
https://ticats.ca/depth-charts

Hasn't been updated since game 9.  Ya, real useful there, HAM.  WPG has been late with a couple of games this year (they are historically pretty bad at it) but overall better than last year.  I need to get the full chart & roster pdf for each game the day before in order to do my fantasy/pickems/(gambling? lol) and the one-page jpg they put on socials isn't good enough (nor am I on socials).  The only way I can get a modicum of a HAM chart in time is via this forum's GDTs!

What should happen is when each team electronically submits the chart pdf to the league as legally required they are instantly posted automatically to a cfl or the teams' sites -- they all seem to be using the same software anyhow.  Instead it relies on some dude to do it at each team -- and some teams clearly don't care.

As for gambling/Genius, yes I think Genius feeds all the gambling that is happening.  Surely Genius is feeding the stats being gambled on to the various bookies.  I doubt each bookie is watching all the games and recording Pokey's yards to see if he can break 85!  Surely that's what allowed the explosion of yard-based and td-based bets, as well as weird prop bets.

[Tecno]

Seeing some Qs about a 3-way WPG/SSK/CGY tiebreaker. As I read it:

WPG: 3-2 (.600 win%)
SSK: 2-2 (.500)
CGY: 2-3 (.400)

I think DT is wrong.  I still see the wording as meaning WPG 3-7, SSK 2-7, CGY 2-7 as per my original post: "all games played against all other tied clubs" -- that's 7, so that's your denominator.  And note how it DOES change the math in that SSK & CGY are still tied at that step, thus requiring the "reset" back to the top of the rules which then can use "season series" to break that CGY/SSK tie.

And last season the CFL confirmed they break *all the ties* with the step. Not break the first tie then go back to the beginning.

Now THAT's interesting knowledge.  However, I would reword it to say "break all the ties THEY CAN with the step" then go back.  In this case, if my interpretation is correct, they can't break the SSK/CGY tie with this step, so they would revert (vs going farther down the rules!).

Yes, it's pedantic because in the end the order remains the same, but that doesn't necessarily have to be so.

[bomb squad]

I think DT is wrong.  I still see the wording as meaning WPG 3-7, SSK 2-7, CGY 2-7 as per my original post: "all games played against all other tied clubs" -- that's 7, so that's your denominator.  And note how it DOES change the math in that SSK & CGY are still tied at that step, thus requiring the "reset" back to the top of the rules which then can use "season series" to break that CGY/SSK tie.

Now THAT's interesting knowledge.  However, I would reword it to say "break all the ties THEY CAN with the step" then go back.  In this case, if my interpretation is correct, they can't break the SSK/CGY tie with this step, so they would revert (vs going farther down the rules!).

Yes, it's pedantic because in the end the order remains the same, but that doesn't necessarily have to be so.

The keyword is "against". Wpg has played 5 games against Ssk and Cgy. Not 7. Cgy has played 5 games against Ssk and Wpg. Not 7. Ssk has played 4 games against Wpg and Cgy. Not 7.

[Tecno]

The keyword is "against". Wpg has played 5 games against Ssk and Cgy. Not 7. Cgy has played 5 games against Ssk and Wpg. Not 7. Ssk has played 4 games against Wpg and Cgy. Not 7.

Hmm, I guess that verbiage does allow for that interpretation.  Once again CFL rules clear as mud.

But then that would give us (according to your game counts):
3/5 WPG
2/5 CGY
2/4 SSK

Ah, I see now, the
WPG: 3-2 (.600 win%)
SSK: 2-2 (.500)
CGY: 2-3 (.400)

.6 didn't mean 3/2, it was 3/5 -- the denominators weren't shown in that first-page post.

So what's really happening is SSK is benefiting simply from the luck of the draw of of not having to face either WPG or CGY a 3rd time!

What a strange league...

Thanks for helping me grok it, all!

[gobombersgo]

From a dude on X. Note the asterisk - the Lions and Bombers change positions if the Bombers win by 17 or more.

randomdude476  @randomdude476
CFL West scenarios (updated to be accurate for the WPG-CGY-SSK 3-team tiebreaker)

Calgary is out in 20 of the 32 scenarios, Saskatchewan is out in 9, and Winnipeg is out in 3.

Saskatchewan crosses over in 15 scenarios, Calgary crosses over in 9, and Winnipeg crosses over in 8.

Forgot to note the asterisk means it comes down to a points tiebreaker

[blue_or_die]

I didn't realize we could technically still host the semifinal

[Waffler]

I didn't realize we could technically still host the semifinal

Me too. Best to forget it though. Not happening.

My guess at this point is Sask and Wpg each win one. Calgary then won't matter. Positions stay as they now.

LOVED the chart!

[Tecno]

Ya, that's some serious homework there. I'm slightly jealous, though glad I didn't waste my 2 hours on it.

He could have made new rows for the possibility of Wpg winning by enough points, rather than using the asterisk. Would have added 30% more rows to the chart though?

I guess it doesn't matter because no one expects Wpg to win that game by nearly 20. That said, we have destroyed teams by that much on rematches before!

[blue_or_die]

Despite the non-likelihood of us hosting a playoff game, there's part of me that's hoping for it.

On the other hand though, no way I'd be able to attend as the game is slated for 3:30p local time on Halloween and I have little kids who would rightfully disown me if I missed trick or treating as I wouldn't get home until 7:30 at the very earliest. Simply not an option for me.

[gobombersgo]

WEEK 20: WEST PLAYOFF PICTURE COMES INTO FOCUS
113TH Grey Cup playoff scenarios for the upcoming week

TORONTO (October 14, 2026) – The following scenarios are in play this week.

EAST DIVISION

Standings finalized.

WEST DIVISION

EDM WIN OR BC LOSS = EDM claims first place and the right to host the Western Final on Saturday, November 7.
WPG WIN OR CGY LOSS = WPG clinches playoff berth.
WPG LOSS + SSK WIN = SSK clinches playoff berth.
SSK WIN + CGY LOSS = SSK clinches playoff berth.
WPG LOSS OR BC WIN = BC clinches the right to host a playoff game.
Note: SSK and CGY do not have a path forward to host a playoff game.

113TH GREY CUP: THE FINAL STRETCH

Week 14: MTL secured a postseason berth and the right to host a playoff game.
Week 15: EDM secured a postseason berth.
Week 16: TOR secured a postseason berth and the right to host a playoff game.
Week 17: West to East crossover confirmed.
Week 18: TOR clinched second in the East Division and the right to host the Eastern Semi-Final on October 31.
Week 18: MTL clinched first in the East Division and the right to host the Eastern Final on November 7.
Week 19: EDM secured the right to host a playoff game.
Week 19: BC secured a postseason berth.

WEEK 20 SCHEDULE

October 16 | TOR at OTT | 7 p.m. ET | TSN, CFL+, SiriusXM
October 16 | WPG at EDM | 9:30 p.m. ET | TSN, CFL+, SiriusXM
October 17 | MTL at SSK | 3 p.m. ET | TSN, CTV, Crave, RDS, CFL+, SiriusXM
October 17 | BC at CGY | 7 p.m. ET | TSN, CFL+, SiriusXM

https://press.cfl.ca/week-20-west-playoff-picture-comes-into-focus